Selling a put does not give an investor access to LLY's upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. And the person on the other side of the contract would only benefit from exercising at the $750 strike if doing so produced a better outcome than selling at the going market price. (Do options carry counterparty risk? This and six other common options myths debunked). So unless Eli Lilly sees its shares fall 28.1% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $687.80 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $62.20 from $750), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 4.2% annualized rate of return.
Interestingly, that annualized 4.2% figure actually exceeds the 0.7% annualized dividend paid by Eli Lilly by 3.5%, based on the current share price of $1033.37. And yet, if an investor was to buy the stock at the going market price in order to collect the dividend, there is greater downside because the stock would have to lose 28.07% to reach the $750 strike price.
Always important when discussing dividends is the fact that, in general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Eli Lilly, looking at the dividend history chart for LLY below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 0.7% annualized dividend yield.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Eli Lilly, and highlighting in green where the $750 strike is located relative to that history:
The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the January 2028 put at the $750 strike for the 4.2% annualized rate of return represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Eli Lilly (considering the last 251 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $1033.37) to be 40%. For other put options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the LLY Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
