Deckers Outdoor Corp (NYSE: DECK) is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings (March year) on Thursday, May 22, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 60 cents per share on $1 billion in revenue. This would represent a 28% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 4% growth in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 83 cents per share and $960 million in revenue. Historically, DECK stock has increased 61% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 9.0% and a maximum observed increase of 19%.
Deckers primarily owns the Ugg and Hoka shoe brands, which are its two largest and most significant contributors to revenue, accounting for approximately 68% and 29% of total sales, respectively. In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, both brands demonstrated strong consumer demand, with Ugg achieving a 16% increase in sales and Hoka outperforming with a 24% gain. Despite having a relatively narrow brand portfolio, the company’s key offerings continue to resonate well with consumers. However, investors may currently be focused on tariff-related concerns, as a significant portion of Deckers’ footwear production takes place in Asia. The company has $19 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $942 Mil.
For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
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Deckers’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 61% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 9.0%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
DECK Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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