Brinker International, Inc. EAT is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on April 29.
EAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8.2%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of EAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.85, indicating a rise of 7.1% from $2.66 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.48 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 3.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Brinker International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brinker International, Inc. Quote
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape EAT’s Quarterly Results
Brinker’s fiscal third-quarter performance is expected to have reflected continued momentum at Chili’s, supported by sustained traffic gains, strong value positioning and ongoing improvements in food, service and atmosphere. The company is likely to have benefited from its focus on everyday value, menu upgrades and marketing effectiveness, driving guest demand. Steady pricing in the 3%-5% range, along with positive traffic trends prior to weather-related disruptions, is anticipated to have supported top-line performance during the quarter.
Chili’s performance is expected to have remained the key contributor in the quarter under review. The brand is likely to have benefited from consistent execution across its core operating pillars, including menu simplification, food quality enhancements and operational discipline. Initiatives such as the “3 For Me” platform and Margarita of the Month program, along with continued strength in core menu categories, are expected to have supported traffic and mix. Improvements in guest metrics, including lower “guests with a problem” scores and higher intent-to-return levels, are likely to have reflected ongoing progress in the underlying business. Our model predicts fiscal third-quarter revenues from Chili’s to rise 4.6% year over year to $1.36 billion.
Investments in marketing and menu innovation are expected to have supported performance during the fiscal third quarter. The company’s emphasis on value-led offerings, combined with disciplined innovation across key categories such as burgers, appetizers and beverages, is likely to have aided guest engagement. Ongoing operational focus and marketing initiatives are expected to have remained central to traffic trends during the period.
Brinker’s fiscal third-quarter bottom line is likely to have faced pressure from several factors. Weather-related disruptions, including Winter Storm Fern, are expected to have impacted traffic trends during the quarter. Additionally, Maggiano’s performance is likely to have remained a drag, with expectations for negative mid-single-digit same-store sales and continued margin pressure. Our model predicts fiscal third-quarter revenues from Maggiano's to decline 6.8% year over year to $112.7 million.
Commodity inflation, particularly in beef, along with ongoing investments in food quality and higher input costs, is likely to have weighed on margins during the fiscal third quarter. Our model predicts fiscal third-quarter Food and Beverage Costs to rise 3.8% year over year to $366.6 million.
What Our Model Says About EAT Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Brinker this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for EAT: Brinker currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.60%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Brinker’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few other stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.78% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to decline 22.7%. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.5%.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Cheesecake Factory’s earnings are expected to register a 7.5% year-over-year rise. Cheesecake Factory’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 9.9%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG has an Earnings ESP of +1.80% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Chipotle’s earnings are expected to register a 17.2% year-over-year decline. Chipotle’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 3.6%.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
