Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

| As per the evolutionary biologist Matt Ridley, historically culture and compassion flourish wherever there has been commerce...

| Gold higher on geopolitical risks + inflation hedge?

| Falling yields = Peak Rates + Disinflation = provided a boost to equity markets | 2024 year of rate cuts?

| Disinflation but more work is left...

Goods Deflation Is Back. It Could Speed Inflation’s Return to 2%.
Prices of durables have been falling for five straight months -WSJ

| Equity market volatility eerily quiet...

| Dollar + Oil fell prior week

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| yields declining across the curve | 2024 year of rate cuts?

* source: Oxford Economics

| Rate cuts ahead! | Peak Rates!

* source: Deutsche Bank

| Yields falling = relief | Higher P/Es (valuation multiples drove returns) as yields fell... | Small Caps have been outperforming = Russell 2000 +9.2% last 3 weeks vs S&P 500 4%

| Small Caps have been outperforming = Russell 2000 +9.2% last 3 weeks vs S&P 500 4%

* source: Piper Sandler

| FCI - Financial Conditions Index has been easing as of late providing a boost to risk assets | Peak Rates...rate cuts ahead?

* source: Deutsche Bank

| This year is characterized by #QualityMatters | "Quality has been a universal theme in nearly every market and sector" -Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

| "While the Magnificent 7 gets the headlines, the mega-cap trend is skewing not just the market but every sector" -Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

| Retail investors bullish - how long will this last?

| Consumer outlook not very encouraging | "both indexes are likely influenced by consumer dissatisfaction with inflationary pressures, which have made many feel weary about the affordability of their lifestyle. Even as pace of inflation has eased, still consumers are worried about affording both necessities as well as discretionary items." -John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| With interest rates rising, corporate interest expense (+balance sheet) next topic of conversation... | "This time higher rates may not be as painful as quickly and may pose a bigger challenge for smaller companies than larger ones." -JPM AM

* source: JP Morgan Asset Management

| Manufacturing in contraction territory while services barely expanding...

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED + TYields + Dollar HIGHER / Gold + Oil LOWER

DJ -0.0% S&P500 -0.6% Nasdaq -1.1% R2K +0.2% Cdn TSX +0.0%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1% APAC stocks LOWER, 10YR TYield = 4.251%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,049, WTI -2%, $73; Brent -1%, $78, Bitcoin $41,675

2) Mortgage rates have spiked...

* source: JPM AM

3)How will tight bank lending conditions impact the economy?

* source: Deutsche Bank

4) THIS WEEK:

"The US jobs report on Friday will be the highlight of the week, with the University of Michigan data also in focus.

Other notable releases include economic activity indicators in Germany, wages in Japan, and trade in China.

From central banks, there will be the ECB's consumer expectations survey and
the BoE's inflation attitudes survey. Monetary policy decisions are also due from
the central banks of Canada and Australia."

-Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

Singapore’s MAS Sets Framework to Improve Transition Financing - BBG

-Singapore is taking multiple steps to improve transition financing, including setting new rules for financial institutions to manage their climate-related risks and to support an orderly transition.

-The city-state’s regulator also launched a new taxonomy Sunday that aims to increase financing to climate-friendly transition activities while minimizing greenwashing risks.

World Bank Focuses On Securitization to Scale Climate Finance - FP

-The World Bank is working with a club of 15 finance bosses to lower the risk of investing in climate projects in emerging economies and attract private capital for cutting emissions.

-The group is focused on specific approaches that the World Bank can implement after years of struggling to mobilize the vast sums of money needed to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Outsize profits helped drive inflation. Now consumers are pushing back-MSN
• Goods deflation is back. It could speed inflation’s return to 2%-MSN
• US payrolls are seen picking up after end of UAW strike-BBG
• Gush of cash into money market funds tipped to continue in 2024-FT
• Meme-Stock crowd plows into cross-asset rally lifting risky bets-BBG
• Tax-loss selling, 'Santa rally' could swayU.S. stocks November melt-up-RTRS
• Uber joins the S&P 500. Here's which other stocks did and were removed-BAR
• US Treasury 10-year futures' net shorts rise to largest since mid-October-RTRS
• Slowing inflation piles pressure on central banks to pivot-FT
• 'Way too early' to declare victory over inflation, says ECB's Nagel-RTRS
• Pentagon: US warship, multiple commercial ships under attack in Red Sea-ABC
• Israel says ground forces operating across Gaza Strip as offensive builds-RTRS
• Chinese borrowers default in record numbers as economic crisis deepens-FT
• China's respiratory illness rise due to known pathogens, official says-RTRS

• Google postpones big AI launch as OpenAI zooms ahead-INFO
• AstraZeneca ties up with AI biologics company to develop cancer drug-FT
• Boeing eliminated from US Air Force's 'Doomsday Plane' competition-RTRS
• Richard Branson rules out further investment in Virgin Galactic-FT
• Chinese ties exclude Australian lithium miners from US cash-AFR
• Exxon chief:UN climate talks have focused on renewable energy too long-FT
• Playtech in £700m bid for William Hill owner 888-TIMES
• Stanmore Resources’ Indonesian backer in $167m selldown-AFR
• Heathrow stake sale opens the door for a resurgence in airport deals-RTRS
• Commerzbank seeks wealth fund investor in Asia, Mideast-BBG
• Alaska Air to buy peer Hawaiian for $1.9 billion-RTRS
• Spotify to cutalmost a fifth of staff in efficiency drive-FT
• Roche joins race for obesity drugs with $2.7 billion Carmot deal-RTRS
• Walmart says it is not advertising on social platformX-RTRS
• UBS to expand presence in U.S. market, NZZ Am Sonntag reports-RTRS

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Venezuela's oil exports remain almost unchanged, middlemen seek deals-RTRS 2) Kuwait’s mega Al-Zour refinery fully operating for first time-BBG 3) Russia's Black Sea ports working as weather permits – ministry-RTRS 4) India resumes imports of Venezuelan oil, Reliance seeks direct deal-RTRS5) US reviewing options after Venezuela fails to release detainees-BBG 6) Global factory activity stays weak, uncertainty on China clouds outlook-RTRS 7) Venezuelans approve takeover of oil-rich region of Guyana. What happens next?-CNN 8) US warns Iran-backed Houthis after Red Sea shipping attacks-BBG 9) Israel’s war with Hamas resumes with airstrikes in Gaza after a weeklong truce ends-AP