Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

big week for central banks: BoJ, BoE, SNB, Norges, Fed ...

Bond traders surrendering to a higher for longer reality from the Fed -BBG | US10Y yield is near its ytd highs ahead of the Fed

"This could be a landmark week in markets as the last global holdout on negative rates looks set to be removed as the BoJ likely hikes rates from -0.1% tomorrow. That could slightly overshadow the FOMC that concludes on Wednesday that will have its own signaling intrigue given recent strong inflation." -Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

* source: BofA

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| largest increase in Japanese wages since 1991, around the time the Japanese bubble burst..."makes the decision to take Japan out of negative rate territory tomorrow even more certain."

* source: Deutsche Bank

* source: Yardeni Research

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

| market breadth still somewhat narrow/weak...

* source: Yardeni Research

| concentration risk...

* source: JPM AM

| At the index level (S&P 500) P/Es are not cheap...

* source: JPM AM

| will we see an earnings recovery? = needed for sustained broad rally | "we don’t put high odds on a sharp rebound in earnings estimates in 2024; earnings expectations are already high and these expectations, especially in small caps, continue to trend lower." -Piper Sandler

* source: Piper Sandler

| last Friday saw consumer sentiment tick down slightly...

* source: Oxford Economics

| #StubbornInflation | inflation expectations slightly above Fed's desired rate

* source: Oxford Economics

| Feeling bubbly? Risk on baby, corporate bond spreads tight...

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

|domestic equity flows remain positive and with indexers/passive > active managers by a wide margin...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED | Oil + TYields + Dollar + Gold HIGHER

DJ +0.3% S&P500 +0.8% Nasdaq +1.4% R2K -0.4%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.0% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.320%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,157, WTI +1%, $82; Brent +1%, $86, Bitcoin $67,526

2) Week in Review: all major indexes finished lower. Energy outperformed while Real Estate underperformed | small caps underperformed

* source: Piper Sandler

3) Oil prices have been trending higher

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

4) THIS WEEK:

"Policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE will be the key highlights next
week.

Key economic updates will come from global flash PMIs on Thursday as well as inflation reports in Japan and the UK.

Economic activity indicators for China are due Monday."

-Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Fed will have to keep rates high for longer than markets anticipate-FT
• Inflation frustration may prompt Fed to dial back rate-cut outlook-RTRS
• BOJ rate hike on Tuesday is now widely expected after wages jump-BBG
• The BOJ won't sway Japan's trillions of investment abroad-RTRS
• Bank of England set to hold interest rates as it awaits more signs on inflation-FT
• Australia set to extend rate pause as economy enters slow lane-BBG
• Equities rally at risk from yields, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says-BBG
• Bond traders surrender to higher-for-longer reality from the Fed-BBG
• Powell’s silence frustrates markets as post-COVID economy shifts-BBG
• China’s growth bump may dent urgency for more stimulus-BBG
• China's upbeat industrial output, retail sales tempered by frail property-RTRS
• Decoding Xi’s new catchphrase aimed at reviving China’s economy-BBG
• Global commodity trading profits topped $100 billion second-best year-BBG
• Vladimir Putin cements Russian rule for another six years-FT
• Netanyahu says Israel to press on with Rafah assault plan-RTRS
• Israel to offer six-week Gaza truce for 40 hostages in Qatar talks-RTRS

• Ayala sets core net income goal of P65b by 2026 on units’ growth-MAN
• Shift4 CEO tells staff buyout bids fail to value firm adequately-BBG
• Advent nearing deal to buy Canadian payments processor Nuvei-RTRS
• BAT chief: moving to US not a ‘no-brainer’ as he defends London listing-FT
• Software company HashiCorp is weighing a potential sale-BBG
• FAA to investigate missing panel on United Flight 433-BBG
• Apple is in talks to let Google Gemini power iPhone AI features-BBG
• US investigating Meta for role in illicit drug sales, WSJ reports-RTRS
• Activist Bluebell tells Blackrock to rethink ESG-TIMES
• Uber pays Aussie taxi drivers $272m in class action settlement-AFR
• TSMC bulls ignore Buffett’s warning for bet on coming AI age-BBG
• In latest A.I. war escalation, Elon Musk releases chatbot code-NYT
• Fractured ‘Magnificent Seven’ trade shifts spotlight to megacap valuations-MSN
• Pfizer plans to sell about £2 billion of shares in Haleon-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Iran leans on local companies with projects to boost oil output-BBG 2) China starts year with record oil processing on holiday demand-BBG3) Inventory builds, Red Sea concerns pressure Asia diesel margins-RTRS 4) Ukrainian drones have hit 12 Russian oil refineries, Kyiv source says-RTRS 5) China set for record Russian oil imports in March, Kpler says-BBG