A new Inflation Rate hits the tape this morning, coming in flat month over month to +2.7% — still -30 basis points (bps) from the recent high +3.0% back in September. It continues an abrupt turnaround in Consumer Price Index (CPI) year over year, which had risen +70 bps from April to September of last year. And, of course, we’re thankfully miles away from multi-decade highs in the CPI Inflation Rate: back in June 2022, we hit +9.1%.
Oil and gasoline prices helped moderate prices last month: gasoline prices dropped -3.4% from +0.9% the prior month, while oil inflation slowed to +7.4% from +11.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, food prices increased by half a percentage point to +3.1%, and shelter reached +3.2%, up 20 bps month over month. Subtracting volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI print month over month reached +2.6% — in-line month over month and cooler than the +2.8% analysts had been expecting.
Month over month came in as expected at +0.3%, in-line with the previous month, and core CPI month over month cooled a tick to +0.2% from expectations. The non-seasonally adjusted index reached an all-time high +324, +331 on core. In short, while inflation is still present in the U.S. market, we’ve moderated notably from where it looked like we were headed just a couple months ago.
Q4 Earnings Season Kicks Off: JPMorgan & Delta
The biggest of the big Wall Street banks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), outperformed expectations on both top and bottom lines this morning. Earnings of $5.23 per share outpaced the $4.87 in the Zacks consensus for a +7.3% earnings surprise (JPM has not missed on earnings in nearly four years). Revenues of $45.8 billion improved over the $45.69 billion analysts were looking for.
Banking activity and a strong stock market through 2025 assisted JPMorgan’s fine quarter. Average loans gained +3% quarter over quarter. The company now has Assets Under Management (AUM) of $4.8 trillion, +18% year over year. Pre-market trading is up slightly, still looking to reach +1% year to date.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) also beat expectations in its Q4 report this morning, with earnings of $1.55 per share surpassing the Zacks consensus by 2 cents, while $16 billion in quarterly revenues easily bettered the $15.63 billion anticipated. Revenue guidance was ratcheted up, but signs of slowing demand are helping move pre-market trading down -4.5% at this hour.
What to Expect from Today’s Stock Market
After the opening bell, we’ll take a look at (government shutdown-delayed) New Home Sales results for October. Estimates are for the headline to have come down month over month to 710K seasonally adjusted, annualized units. An hour ahead of the closing bell today, we’ll see a new Budget Deficit for December. This is expected to drop to -$150 billion from -$87 billion reported a month ago.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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