Simon Property Group SPG is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 11, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display a year-over-year rise in revenues as well as funds from operations (FFO) per share.
In the last reported quarter, this Indianapolis, IN-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 0.58% in terms of FFO per share. Results reflected an increase in revenues, backed by a rise in the base minimum rent per square foot.
Over the preceding four quarters, Simon Property’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on each occasion, the average surprise being 1.62%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Simon Property Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Simon Property Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Simon Property Group, Inc. Quote
In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its first-quarter 2026 performance.
US Retail Real Estate Market in Q1
The U.S. retail real estate market entered 2026 with a steady but mixed tone. According to a CBRE report, in the first quarter, average retail asking rents rose 2.4% year over year to $24.59 per sq. ft., helped by very limited new construction and three straight quarters of positive net absorption. The tight supply gave landlords support on pricing, even as the market was not free of pressure.
Availability edged up to 4.9% as some retailer bankruptcies led to store closures and smaller footprints. Still, demand remained stronger in suburban areas, where hybrid work continues to keep shoppers closer to home. Downtown retail, by contrast, faced more strain, with availability rising since 2022, while suburban availability declined. Sun Belt markets also stayed active.
Factors to Consider Ahead of SPG’s Q1 Results
Simon Property Group’s first-quarter 2026 results are expected to reflect steady operating momentum, backed by healthy demand for space across its high-quality retail portfolio. The company is likely to have benefited from strong leasing activity, with management previously noting that its leasing pipeline was up about 15% year over year and broad-based across categories. Occupancy is also expected to have remained firm, helped by demand from new tenants and ongoing efforts to improve recently acquired assets.
Rental income is likely to have supported quarterly growth. At the end of 2025, Simon’s malls and premium outlets had 96.4% occupancy, while average base minimum rent rose 4.7% year over year. The company also expected new lease rents of about $65 per square foot to continue into 2026. These factors suggest that leasing spreads and higher minimum rents may have aided first-quarter property NOI.
The quarter is also likely to reflect early contributions from Simon’s recent acquisitions and redevelopment projects. However, most major 2026 project openings were expected later in the year, so the first-quarter benefit may have been modest. Management’s full-year outlook for at least 3% domestic property NOI growth suggests that the company is likely to have started the year with a steady, but not sharp, increase in operating income.
Still, Simon’s first-quarter performance may have included some pressure from higher interest costs, retailer bankruptcies and tariff-related stress on tenants. These factors could have limited FFO growth in the period. Even so, strong leasing, resilient occupancy and continued portfolio upgrades are expected to have helped the company deliver a steady first-quarter 2026 performance.
Projections for SPG
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter lease income is pegged at $1.48 billion, up from $1.37 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for management fees and other revenues stands at $34.36 million, up from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure of $33.79 million.
The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is presently pegged at $1.57 billion, which indicates an increase of 6.43% year over year. The consensus mark for other income stands at $78.87 million, up from $71.79 million reported in the prior-year quarter.
Simon Property’s activities during the soon-to-be-reported quarter were adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter FFO per share has been revised a cent upward to $2.98 over the past month. It suggests a 1.02% decrease year over year.
Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for SPG:
Our proven model predicts a likely surprise in terms of FFO per share for Simon Property this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Simon Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.78%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Performance of Other Retail REITs
Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT reported first-quarter 2026 core FFO per share of $1.88, up 10.6% year over year and ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.82. Total revenues of $341.08 million increased 10.3% year over year and beat the consensus mark of $333.8 million.
Federal Realty’s results were supported by strong leasing momentum and higher comparable property operating income. Federal Realty signed 101 comparable retail leases spanning 649,078 square feet, delivering cash rent spreads of 13% for the quarter.
Regency Centers Corporation REG reported first-quarter 2026 NAREIT FFO per share of $1.20, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 by 0.8%. However, the metric increased 4.3% from the year-ago quarter.
Regency Centers’ total revenues came in at $412.5 million, up 8.3% year over year and ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $400.9 million by 2.9%. Regency Centers’ results were aided by continued leasing traction, as reflected in same-property NOI growth of 4.4% year over year.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
