Bear of the Day: Super Micro (SMCI)

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced on November 5 only preliminary results for their Q1 fiscal 2025 (ends June) due to investigations into their financial statements.

On December 6, Super Micro received a letter from the Nasdaq Stock Market which granted the company’s request for an exception to Nasdaq’s Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) through February 25, 2025. 

The exception gives the Company until February 25, 2025 to file its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2024 and any other required filings.

Given the prelim Q1 results and no guidance from management, analysts were prompted in the past few weeks to lower their EPS estimates for this year and next.

While the company shares have been under notable pressure in the second half after the investigations, so far analysts are still maintaining their projections for over 60% topline growth to $24 billion.

The primary reason that SMCI fell into the cellar of the Zacks Rank is that since these events, the 2025 EPS consensus fell 7.3% from $3.41 to $3.16. And the fiscal 2026 (starts July) EPS consensus dropped 6.3% to $3.84.

These still represent annual growth rates of 43% and 21.5%, respectively, so the growth picture is far from diminished just because the stock has been knocked down to under 1X sales and 10X earnings on the allegations and assignment of independent auditors.

While this growth story is also now a value story, investors may want to stay cautious with SMCI shares until there is more visibility into the final reports for fiscal 2024 due in February.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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