HP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. Formerly known as Hewlett-Packard, the company changed its name in October 2015. It serves small- and medium-sized businesses, the public sector, and large enterprises.
Key challenges remain for HP in 2026 including changes in customer purchasing behavior and industry component availability. A difficult macroeconomic environment and lingering inflationary conditions do not bode well for the company’s outlook.
HP’s forecast for fiscal 2026 PC demand raises concerns regarding its growth prospects in the short-term. Management expects PC unit volumes to fall in the current year. Lower volumes and price pressures would make it harder to protect margins and meet earnings targets.
The computing giant faces stiff competition for its PC and printer businesses. The PC segment competes with the likes of Apple, Dell, Lenovo, and Acer. In the latest quarter, print revenues fell 4% year-over-year as office demand in North America and Europe remained soft. The print segment will likely continue to face structural challenges as customers reduce printing volumes and shift to digital workflows.
The Zacks Rundown
A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock, HP HPQ is a component of the Zacks Computer – Micro Computers industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 14% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months.
Stocks in the bottom tiers of industries can often be intriguing short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when they’re part of a lagging industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.
HPQ shares have been underperforming the market over the past year. The stock is trading near a 52-week low even as the major U.S. indexes hover near all-time highs.
Recent Earnings Misses & Deteriorating Outlook
HP has fallen short of earnings estimates in four of the past six quarters. The technology company posted a trailing four-quarter average earnings miss of -2.6%. Consistently falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and HP is no exception.
The company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. Looking at the current fiscal year, analysts have slashed estimates by -9.64% in the past 60 days. The FY2026 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate is now $3.00 per share, reflecting negative growth of -3.9% relative to the prior year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.
Technical Outlook
As illustrated below, HPQ stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock has shown little in the way of a trend, widely underperforming the major indices. Also note that shares are trading below downward-sloping 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages – another good sign for the bears.
Image Source: StockCharts
HPQ stock has experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. Shares would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions. The stock has fallen more than 30% in the past year alone.
Final Thoughts
A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make its way to new highs anytime soon. The fact that HPQ stock is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups adds yet another headwind to a long list of concerns.
A history of earnings misses and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.
Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of HP until the situation shows major signs of improvement.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
