D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) shares have fallen hard from their peak above $46 last October. Besides general euphoria for quantum stocks igniting an unsustainable bubble, earnings estimates have crashed back to earth.
The Zacks full-year 2026 EPS consensus among six analysts has dropped from a loss of 19-cents to -$0.35 in the past two months.
Despite D-Wave Quantum’s reported 179% revenue growth in 2025, bookings volatility (down 22% over 2024), widening adjusted EBITDA losses and continued heavy cash burn signal a distant path to profitability. Moreover, much of its recent momentum, including large system sales and QCaaS deals, is subject to delayed revenue recognition, limiting near-term financial visibility.
QBTS Business Challenges in 2026
To learn more about the challenges for the stock, I referred to this article...
D-Wave Quantum Plunges 49% in 3 Months: Time to Sell as Losses Widen?
D-Wave entered 2026 with several key challenges despite its strong 2025 top-line performance. While revenue grew to $24.6 million in 2025, it remains uneven across quarters, with a 22% drop in bookings showing reliance on a few big deals. Much of its recent wins, like system sales and long-term contracts, will take time to show up as revenue, limiting near-term visibility.
Losses are still high (about $71.8 million EBITDA loss) and spending is expected to increase further due to R&D expansion and the Quantum Circuits acquisition. Lastly, although the company is pushing a dual-platform strategy, its gate-model technology is still early-stage. It may lag larger, better-funded competitors, raising concerns about how quickly it can deliver real commercial results.
Industry-Wide Headwinds
At a macro level, conditions are equally challenging. The quantum computing sector remains in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) Phase meaning systems are not yet widely practical or commercially scalable, with meaningful adoption likely years away (closer to 2030). This keeps stocks driven more by sentiment than fundamentals.
At the same time, competition from giants like IBM and rising global investments are increasing both the pace and cost of innovation. Combined with macro pressures like geopolitical tensions, tight financial conditions and reduced appetite for high-risk tech, 2026 could be a tough year for D-Wave Quantum as it works to prove real commercial traction in a still-maturing industry.
Bottom line on QBTS: Long-term investors may see favorable risk/reward in QBTS at a sub-$5 billion market cap. But until the EPS estimate stop going down and stabilize, the near-term risks remain front and center. The Zacks Rank will keep you informed.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
