Artificial General Intelligence: AI's Next Chapter

Introduction

Artificial Intelligence is arguably the most significant technological advancement of the 21st century, rapidly becoming an integral part of both our personal and professional lives. Yet, we are only beginning to uncover its full potential. As the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) progresses, its transformative impact could surpass anything we’ve seen so far. AGI has the potential to revolutionize countless industries, dramatically enhance efficiency, and reshape the way we live and work.

What is Artificial General Intelligence?

There is no formal definition for AGI, but it is generally recognized as a form of AI that can learn, understand, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks – performing at a level comparable to human intelligence.

OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT) defines AGI in its charter as “highly autonomous systems that have the ability to outperform humans at nearly every economically valuable work.” ¹

How does AGI differ from Generative AI?

Generative AI works by analyzing vast datasets and predicting what comes next. Nisha Tatagla writing in Forbes used an analogy comparing Generative AI to a highly skilled parrot: It’s capable of mimicking complex patterns, producing diverse content, and occa-sionally surprising us with outputs that seem creatively brilliant. However, like a parrot, Generative AI does not truly "understand" the content it creates. It operates by digesting large datasets and predicting what comes next, whether the next word in a sentence or the next stroke in a digital painting. However, it lacks the ability to grasp complex human experiences or perform tasks it hasn’t been specifically programmed to handle, such as managing your taxes or strategizing economic policies.²

In contrast, AGI represents the next frontier – the ability to mimic human cognitive abilities, capable of reasoning, learning, and prob-lem-solving across domains without predefined limits. If realized, AGI could redefine the boundaries of what machines can achieve, moving beyond automation to true intelligence.

What skills would enable a system to be considered AGI?

In the early 1950s, the renowned British mathematician Alan Turing proposed that a model that achieved AGI would be indistinguish-able from a human in conversation. This thesis, commonly known as the “Turing Test,” has arguably been achieved by most large language models, at least in certain contexts.

However, as technology has evolved, the benchmark for AGI has shifted. The AI community now generally agrees that for a system to be considered AGI, it must demonstrate a broad range of human-like cognitive abilities³, including:

1. Visual perception: Today’s AI systems currently struggle with context, color differentiation and recognizing partially hidden objects. A true AGI would need to interpret complex visual scenes as humans do, understanding depth, perspective, and im-plicit cues.
2. Audio perception: AI cannot reliably understand accents, sarcasm, and emotional speech tones, nor can it filter out back-ground noise. Non-verbal communications, such as tone shifts and pauses, remains a major challenge.
3. Fine motor skills: AI-powered robots have yet to achieve the delicate motor skills needed to handle fragile objects, manipu-late tools in real-world settings, or adapt to new physical tasks with the same flexibility as humans.
4. Natural language processing: Generative AI can produce highly sophisticated text, but it still lacks true comprehension. These models rely on statistical patterns and correlations, rather than actually understanding meaning, nuance, and intent the way humans do.
5. Problem-solving: A true AGI system needs to be able to diagnose and address complex problems, requiring a degree of common sense and the ability to run simulations to determine possibilities and outcomes. AGI should be able to learn from their environment and experiences and adapt to new situations without explicit programming from humans.
6. Navigation: While technologies like GPS and Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), have advanced significantly, true AGI would require the ability to navigate autonomously in unfamiliar environments without human intervention.
7. Creativity: Generating new ideas, concepts, or solutions is a hallmark of human creativity, and something that current AI struggles to accomplish. While AI may be able to generate art or music, it is not yet ready to rival human-level creativity. For this to happen it would need to rewrite its own code and form original, independent thoughts.
8. Social and emotional engagement: For AGI to seamlessly interact with humans, it must recognize, interpret, and appropri-ately respond to emotions.  AGI needs to adjust its communication and behavior based on the emotional state of others. Some AI systems can do this already, to a limited extent.

What industries will most likely benefit from AGI?

Once AGI becomes a reality, its potential applications become virtually infinite. Below are just a few industries that could be trans-formed by AGI:⁴

Healthcare:

• AGI could analyze vast amounts of medical data to identify at-risk patients, predict future diseases, and design personalized treatments.
• AI-driven robotic surgery could perform procedures with extreme precision, reducing human error.
• Drug development time could be significantly shortened as AGI rapidly analyzes compounds and predicts their effectiveness.

Financial Services:

• AGI-powered financial advisors could offer highly personalized investment advice and strategies.
• AGI could analyze vast data sets to identify complex market trends and potential disruptions that human analysts might overlook.
• AGI could help enhance the accuracy of financial models, predict market behavior, and execute trades based on real-time insights.

Manufacturing:

• AGI-powered robots could handle complex manufacturing tasks, offering greater flexibility than traditional automation.
• Supply chains could be optimized in real time, predicting disruptions, and minimizing waste.
• AGI could process large amounts of data gathered from sensors to predict machine issues and alert teams before equip-ment breaks down.

Education and Research:

• AGI could create customized curriculums tailored to each student’s learning style.
• Virtual tutors powered by AGI could provide real-time, interactive learning experiences across multiple subjects.
• AGI could accelerate scientific breakthroughs by simulating physics, chemistry, and materials science experiments faster than human researchers.

Information Technology:

• AGI could understand and generate code, suggest improvements, and even design entire software functions to fulfill partic-ular needs.
• AGI-driven cyber security systems could proactively detect and neutralize cyber threats in real time.

Energy:

• Smart grid optimization using AGI could balance energy loads in real time, reducing waste and enhancing efficiency.
• AGI could enhance climate prediction models and suggest policy changes for sustainability.

Defense and Security:

• Autonomous weapons and defense systems such as self-operating drones can be enhanced through AGI technology.
• AGI could be utilized to analyze global threats and predict potential conflicts before they escalate.

Is AGI a savior or an existential risk to humanity?

While the transformative potential of Artificial General Intelligence has been widely documented and discussed, concerns about its potential risks continue to grow. Some experts argue that AGI could revolutionize industries and improve global efficiency, while others warn of unprecedented societal disruptions and existential threats.

In 2023, more than 1,000 tech researchers, including Elon Musk, signed an open letter calling for a six-month pause on the develop-ment of AI systems that are more powerful than OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4. The letter warned:

“AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity, as shown by extensive research and acknowledged by top AI labs…... Advanced AI could represent a profound change in the history of life on Earth and should be planned for and managed with commensurate care and resources.” ⁵

Another group of 350 industry leaders from organizations such as OpenAI, Alphabet, and Microsoft also released a simple, one-sentence statement:

“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” ⁶

While the idea of AGI becoming an existential threat has been widely debated (think Skynet from the Terminator movie series), there is no consensus that this will become a reality. However, there is no doubt that this technology can be the catalyst for numerous societal dislocations, as it could potentially create mass unemployment as workers’ jobs become redundant due to advances in AGI.

A study by OpenAI estimates that:

• 80% of the US workforce could see at least 10% of their work tasks affected by AI powered systems
• Around 19% of all workers could experience at least 50% of their job tasks impacted.

Professions most likely to be affected are mathematicians, tax preparers, financial analysts, and writers – roles that rely heavily on data analysis, pattern recognition, and content generation.⁷

As AGI continues to evolve, the debate over its risk and benefits will only intensify. The challenge ahead lies in harnessing its poten-tial while implementing safeguards to prevent unintended consequences.

Are we there yet?

Perhaps the most intensely debated questions in AI today is when (or if) Artificial General Intelligence will be fully realized.

In early 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman sparked controversy when he wrote:

“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents ‘join the workforce’ and materially change the output of companies. We continue to believe that iteratively putting great tools in the hands of people leads to great, broadly-distributed outcomes.” ⁸

However, Altman’s optimistic timeline places him in the minority among AI experts. Many leading technologists remain skeptical about AGI‘s imminent arrival and some even question whether it will ever be fully achieved.

Other industry leaders have offered more cautious predictions:

Geoffrey Hinton, known as the “godfather of Artificial Intelligence,” suggests that AGI could arrive in “5-20 years, but without much confidence.” ⁹

Steve Brown, former Chief Futurist at Google DeepMind and Intel, believes that AGI could emerge before 2040 – bringing human level superintelligence on demand at a cost trending towards zero.¹⁰

Beyond AGI: Artificial Super Intelligence

Even before AGI has been fully realized, developers are already contemplating the next frontier: Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). Unlike AGI, which aims to match human intelligence, ASI is a theoretical form of AI that would surpass human capabilities in every aspect – reasoning, problem solving, creativity, emotional intelligence, and more.

ASI has the potential to be humanity’s greatest achievement, from curing diseases, fully automating industries, and creating new and unlimited clean energy sources. However, the threat of ASI cannot be ignored, as once a technology is created that surpasses human intelligence, the challenge will be to ensure that ASI will align with humanity’s values. Without safeguards, ASI could become humani-ty’s greatest existential threat rather than its greatest invention.

Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence and Big Data ETF (XAIX)

Investors seeking to capitalize on this transformative technology should consider the Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence and Big Data ETF (XAIX), which provides targeted exposure to companies at the forefront of AI innovation. Unlike funds that rely on past trends, XAIX analyzes millions of patents across AI fields such as natural language processing, machine learning, and image recognition, to identify future innovation leaders. XAIX targets companies that will be the architects of AI’s future, not merely the beneficiaries of its progress, all while being one of the most cost-efficient AI ETFs, with a 0.35% expense ratio.¹¹

Conclusion

Artificial General Intelligence can potentially be one of the most transformative technologies in human history. From performing manual tasks previously done by humans to detecting diseases and how to treat them, AGI will potentially impact virtually every facet of our lives.

However, this AI revolution comes with significant challenges. There is a real potential for massive dislocations to the job market as we know it, and while the likelihood of an uncontrolled AGI posing an existential threat remains uncertain, it cannot be ignored.

As we move toward integrating AGI into society, it is crucial to approach its development with care, responsibility, and strong ethical safeguards to ensure that its benefits far outweigh its risks.

Glossary

Artificial Intelligence (AI): Is the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human

Intelligence.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): A form of AI that can learn, understand, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks – performing at a level comparable to human intelligence.

Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI): A theoretical point in the development of artificial intelligence in which machines achieve technolog-ical singularity — surpassing human intelligence.

ChatGPT: A large-scale AI language model developed by OpenAI that generates human-like text.

ChatGPT-4: A multimodal large language model trained and created by OpenAI and the fourth in its series of GPT foundation models.

Generative AI:  Artificial Intelligence (AI) that can create original content—such as text, images, video, audio or software code—in response to a user’s prompt or request.

Large Language Model (LLM): A type of AI model that can comprehend and generate human-like text and is trained on a broad da-taset.

Turing Test: A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to that of a human.

1. www.openai.com/charter                                                  
2. Nisha Talagala, The OpenAI Drama: What Is AGI And Why Should You Care? November 22, 2023
3. Tim Mucci and Cole Stryker, Getting ready for artificial general intelligence with examples, April 18, 2024
4. Matthew Urwin, What Is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)? | Built In, August 5, 2024
5. Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter - Future of Life Institute, March 22, 2023
6. Statement on AI Risk | CAIS (safe.ai), May 29, 2023
7. OpenAI says 80% of workers could see their jobs impacted by AI. These are the jobs most affected | Euronews, March 23, 2023
8. Reflections - Sam Altman, January 5, 2025
9. When will AGI arrive? Here’s what our tech lords predict (thenextweb.com), May 5, 2023
10. BofA - Theme Watch (baml.com), December 2, 2024
11. Source: TrackInsight as of 7/29/2025

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