Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | "Everybody wants to save the Earth; nobody wants to help Mom do the dishes." -P.J. O'Rourke

| markets are pricing in economic growth or at least no recession?

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

CEOs expected an expanding economy although outlook has deteriorated

* source: Yardeni Research

Economic Surprise Index touch positive...

* source: Yardeni Research

| food for thought | this is what a parabolic stock chart looks like! | NVDA = $1.5T market cap

* source: CNBC

| Magnificent 7 is a crowded trade...

* source: BofA

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Oil HIGHER / Gold + Dollar + TYields LOWER

-Netflix shares pop 10% as streamer adds 13.1 million subscribers, tops revenue estimates -CNBC

-China announces biggest bank reserve ratio cut since December 2021 -RTRS

DJ +0.3% S&P500 +0.5% Nasdaq +0.7% R2K +1.0% Cdn TSX +0.8%

Stoxx Europe 600 +1.1% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.090%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $2,027, WTI +1%, $75; Brent +1%, $80, Bitcoin $40,053

2) Lackluster Q4 earnings | S&P 500 reporting lowest net profit margin in more than 3 years for Q4 -FI

* source: Factset Insight

3) Will we see an earnings rebound? | in a tighter monetary environment earnings are key to growth equity prices...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

4) YTD outperformers: Japan, Oil, Commodities, Nasdaq Index

YTD underperformers: Emerging Markets, Small Caps, FTSE100

* source: JP Morgan

5) markets are trading above their historical mean valuations...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

6) Although some work remains, inflation is mostly behind us and a reason why Consumer Sentiment has improved...

* source: Deutsche Bank

7) THIS WEEK:

"Growth indicators will be in focus with key releases including the preliminary Q4 GDP reading in the US and the global flash PMIs.

On the inflation front, there will be prints for US PCE and Tokyo CPI.

In US politics, the spotlight will be on the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

From central banks, there will be decisions from the BoJ, the ECB and the BoC, with the ECB's bank lending survey also due." -Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

Banks Are Asking Investors to Look Past a Dreaded ESG Metric - BNN

-The Green Asset Ratio, launched by the European Banking Authority in 2021 with a deadline for 2024, measures the percentage of assets that aligns with the bloc’s list of sustainable business activities. The EBA in 2021 initially estimated the figure was about 7.9% on average.
 

EU lawmakers back delay to sector-specific ESG corporate disclosures to 2026 – Reuters

-The aim is to give companies time to focus on implementing initial, broader ESG disclosures they must include in their annual reports for 2024 and onwards under the EU's corporate sustainability reporting directive (CSRD).

4) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Analysis-China's attempts to lift confidence in economy fall flat-RTRS
• China stock rout sends local funds scurrying to safety of bonds-BBG
• Unemployment rises in nearly a third of US states in December-RTRS
• Europe’s top economies face tough time at the start of 2024-BBG
• UK services firms grow faster, but factories feel Red Sea hit – PMI-RTRS
• Japan Jan factory activity languishes, but service sector picks up – PMI-RTRS
• Traders riding long treasury positions are starting to feel the squeeze-BBG
• Investors pile into peripheral eurozone bonds in hunt for yield-FT
• Donald Trump wins New Hampshire primary but Nikki Haley vows to fight on-FT
• Lead GOP negotiator: No border package vote this wk, 'very hopeful' deal-POL
• Exclusive: One-month Gaza truce focus of intensive talks, sources say-RTRS
• North Korea fires cruise missiles off west coast, Seoul says-RTRS
• U.S. steps up strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen-AXIOS
• US urges China to help curb Red Sea attacks by Iran-backed Houthis-FT
• U.S. lawmakers arrive in Taiwan in post-election show of support-RTRS
• EU draws up economic security plans, with eye on China-RTRS

• AI to dramatically cut time to develop new battery materials, say executives-FT
• Walgreens explores $4 billion-plus sale of Shields Health-BBG
• SIX Group considers bid for Allfunds, no offer imminent -sources-RTRS
• Exclusive: Tesla plans to build new electric vehicles in mid-2025-RTRS
• Commerzbank CEO pours cold water on possible Deutsche Bank deal-RTRS
• Trian's big Disney bet drove fund's 2023 underperformance -source-RTRS
• Mexico discount retailer Tiendas 3B is said to seek $500 million in US IPO-BBG
• Netflix’s subscriber sign-ups blow past Wall Street expectations-FT
• Tech stocks shine in Europe after blowout updates from ASML, SAP-BBG
• Apple boosts plans to bring generative AI to iPhones-FT
• Apple dials back car’s self-driving features and delays launch to 2028-BBG
• Puma shares sink as consumer struggles weigh on outlook-RTRS
• Boeing 757 loses nose wheel while preparing for takeoff in Atlanta-RTRS
• EBay to cut 1,000 jobs, reduce contractors to sharpen focus-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Plan for one-month Gaza truce makes progress as Israel hits Khan Younis-RTRS 2) Oil demand in Asia, Africa boosted by cheap Russian crude-RTRS 3) Red Sea shipping stages fragile uptick as US continues to hit Houthi sites-PLATTS 4) FUJAIRAH DATA: Oil product stocks climb for first time in three weeks-PLATTS 5) Halliburton's 2024 outlook optimistic despite near-term commodity price volatility: CEO-PLATTS 6) India to become main driver of incremental oil use by 2030-RTRS