Annaly Capital Management Inc. NLY is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 21, after market close. The company’s net interest income (NII) and earnings are expected to reflect year-over-year increases in the quarter to be reported.
In the last reported quarter, the mortgage real estate investment trust’s (mREIT) earnings available for distribution per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company’s average yield on interest-earning assets improved. The year-over-year increase in book value per share was also encouraging.
Annaly has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 1.74%.
Annaly Capital Management Inc Price and EPS Surprise
Annaly Capital Management Inc price-eps-surprise | Annaly Capital Management Inc Quote
Let us see how things have shaped up before the first-quarter earnings announcement.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter NII is pegged at $494 million, suggesting a rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported NII of $219.9 million.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 74 cents over the past seven days. The metric indicates a rise of 2.8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
Factors to Shape NLY’s Q1 Performance
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the first quarter of 2026. Though mortgage rates moved lower early in the quarter, the same climbed again toward the end of March, as macro uncertainty and geopolitical tensions emerged. Throughout the quarter, the mortgage rate hovered at 6-6.5%. While refinance activity has seen a slight boost from the 2025 lows, purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints.
Given this backdrop, NLY’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio is likely to have faced somewhat higher interest-rate volatility and wider agency MBS spreads during the quarter. This might have pressured the company’s book value performance in the first quarter of 2026.
Although mortgage rates were lower at certain points during the quarter, the overall level of rates remained high enough to keep refinancing incentives fairly limited. As a result, AGNC’s constant prepayment rates are expected to have stayed relatively contained, which could help moderate premium amortization expenses and offer some support to net interest income. This is expected to have positively impacted net premium amortization to some extent in the first quarter, thereby supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield.
Given slower prepayment speeds in the first quarter, the company’s mortgage servicing rights portfolio is likely to have been impacted positively to some extent. This is anticipated to have increased NLY's servicing fees in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net servicing income of $146 million indicates a year-over-year rise of 15.6%.
What the Zacks Model Reveals for Annaly
Our proven model does not show that an earnings beat is likely for NLY this time around. This is because the company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Annaly has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: NLY currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).
REIT Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of REIT stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
NETSTREIT Corp. NTST is expected to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 20. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Quarterly earnings estimates for NETSTREIT have been unchanged at 34 cents per share over the past week.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust PMT is expected to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +8.54% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust have been unchanged at 36 cents per share over the past week.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
