Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF (Symbol: IYC), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $105.79 per unit.
With IYC trading at a recent price near $95.84 per unit, that means that analysts see 10.38% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of IYC's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are U-Haul Holding Co (Symbol: UHAL), Yum! Brands Inc (Symbol: YUM), and BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (Symbol: BJ). Although UHAL has traded at a recent price of $62.34/share, the average analyst target is 23.92% higher at $77.25/share. Similarly, YUM has 12.71% upside from the recent share price of $144.00 if the average analyst target price of $162.30/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting BJ to reach a target price of $123.95/share, which is 12.05% above the recent price of $110.62. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of UHAL, YUM, and BJ:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
| Name | Symbol | Recent Price | Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target | % Upside to Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF | IYC | $95.84 | $105.79 | 10.38% |
| U-Haul Holding Co | UHAL | $62.34 | $77.25 | 23.92% |
| Yum! Brands Inc | YUM | $144.00 | $162.30 | 12.71% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc | BJ | $110.62 | $123.95 | 12.05% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
