Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | Fed decision day (2PM) = 1% chance of rate cut | 55% chance of rate cuts in June | main focus = dot plots + Summary of Economic Projections

growing inflationary pressure = Brent crude closed above $87/bbl for the first time since October + US1YR inflation swaps inching up to 2.64% highest level since October

"central banks face an unenviable challenge in calibrating their policy this year given the long and variable policy lags and the extreme nature of the recent inflation shock and accompanying post-Covid structural shifts." -Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

| as per JP Morgan investor poll, at this rate there is the possibility that the Fed may not even cut rates in 2024!

* source: JPMorgan

* source: Yardeni Research

* source: CNBC

| on easy money: "The BOJ also has created risks for the rest of the world. Years of ultracheap money fueled an enormous carry trade in which investors could borrow yen to fund investments elsewhere. Unwinding these trades as the BOJ normalizes policy could reshape financial markets around the world. The U.S. Treasury market bears watching in particular because U.S. government debt has been a popular destination for Japanese capital."

-The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, Japan Ends the Negative Rate Mistake

* source: Yardeni Research

| BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey - investor positioning:

MoM investors moved into Eurozone/Emerging Markets

and away from US equtities

| on an absolute basis investors are

Bullish: healthcare, stocks, tech, and Japan;

Bearish: UK, Utilities, REITs, and materials.

* source: BofA, Global Fund Manager Survey

| market breadth improving as of recent...will this be sustainable?

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

| as per JPMorgan investor survey: expensive valuations + inflation upside greatest risks to markets = 82% believe a correction at some point

* source: JP Morgan

| Goldman Sachs believes inflation will be low enough by June for a rate cut...but will it?

* source: JPM AM

| Food for thought - bring back #EconomicGrowth | "For context, today’s CoTD looks at the rolling 10yr average of annual productivity growth in the post-WWII period. Since the mid-2010s, it’s oscillated around a historically low 1.5%. Alongside slower population growth, it’s meant that US economic growth has been comparatively weak since the GFC, at least relative to its historical trends.

So where is US productivity growth likely to head next?"

-Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

* source: Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

| "investors looking for corporates to return cash to shareholders is up to the highest level since Feb'16."

* source: BofA, Global Fund Manager Survey

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED to LOWER | Dollar HIGHER | Oil + TYields + Gold LOWER

DJ -0.1% S&P500 -0.1% Nasdaq -0.1% R2K -0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.0% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.295%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,154, WTI -1%, $82; Brent -1%, $86, Bitcoin $63,726

2) THIS WEEK:

"Policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE will be the key highlights next
week.

Key economic updates will come from global flash PMIs on Thursday as well as inflation reports in Japan and the UK.

Economic activity indicators for China are due Monday."

-Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Fed to give fresh clues on path of interest-rate cuts-BBG
• The Fed has a lot of questions to answer about its balance sheet-BBG
• Fed could cut rates fewer times than expected economy keeps growing-CNBC
• Investors, economists split on whether BOJ will raise rates again-BBG
• BOJ cuts maximum limit of JGB purchase amount after major policy shift-RTRS
• ECB's Kazaks 'comfortable' with market bets on three rate cuts this year-RTRS
• FTSE 100 Live: Slowing UK inflation keeps summer BOE cuts on the cards-BBG
• Central bankers see ‘immaculate disinflation’ within reach-FT
• UK inflation cools more than expected to slowest since 2021-BBG
• US dollar bears risk being ‘gloriously wrong’ as global rates fall-BBG
• China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, as expected-RTRS
• China's bonds boom as investors face 'asset famine'-RTRS
• China’s builders tackle restructuring as crisis enters new phase-BBG
• Donald Trump says he won’t quit NATO — if Europe pays its way-POL
• US weighs sanctioning Huawei’s secretive Chinese chip network-BBG
• Netanyahu insists ground troops will enter Rafah despite US opposition-FT
• Scoop: Biden privately told Bibi he's not trying to push him out-AXIOS
• France preparing contingent of 2,000 troops to be sent to Ukraine-TASS
• Jeremy Hunt hints at October date for UK general elebction-FT
• Trump-backed candidate Bernie Moreno wins Ohio Senate primary-WASHPO
• Supreme Court allows Texas to begin enforcing immigration law-CNN

• Bharti Hexacom's Rs 4,300-cr IPO likely in April first week-MC
• South African Airways seeks new investor and listing after aborted deal-FT
• Biden to announce multibillion-dollar grant Intel to expand chip production-NYT
• Rogers Communications plans data center sale, The Logic says-BBG
• Boeing must improve quality before boosting 737 production, FAA says-RTRS
• Exclusive: Boeing mulls shedding Airbus work in potential Spirit Aero deal-RTRS
• Super Micro to delay 2 million share sale to after close-BBG
• Heritage provider network revives $7 billion-plus sale plans-BBG
• Telecom Italia investor mulls alternative slate for board-BBG
• Cybersecurity firm Cato Networks hires banks for 2025 IPO, sources say-RTRS
• Chipotle to seek 50-to-1 stock split at annual meeting-BBG
• Exclusive: Macy's opens its books in company sale talks-RTRS
• Cisco closes $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, betting big on AI-MSN
• Microsoft hires DeepMind co-founder Suleyman to run consumer AI-BBG
• Saudi Arabia plans $40 billion push into artificial intelligence-NYT
• Gucci sales to plunge 20% in first quarter on Asia slowdown, Kering says-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Russia's crude flows fall back as major ports hit by disruptions-BBG 2) US oil output to exceed 14 million bpd and then plateau, says Conoco chief-RTRS 3) Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion to be complete by end of May - Alberta Premier-RTRS 4) FUJAIRAH DATA: Oil product stocks jump to 8-month high amid Ramadan-PLATTS 5) Russia plans to defend oil and gas facilities with missile systems-RTRS