Buying a home is the biggest investment most people ever will make, but the real estate market can be fickle.
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If you’re a prospective buyer, you’ll want to put down roots in a place with a healthy market where your investment will appreciate. And if you’re a seller, it pays to keep tabs on the market fluctuations so that you don’t sell in a downturn.
A new study from GOBankingRates shows 40 metropolitan areas at risk for a widespread housing crisis. Using data from sources that include the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2021 American Community Survey and Zillow, GOBankingRates identified the areas poised for a drop in housing values or sales. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, homeowner and rental vacancy rates, and sales under the listing price.
Where are these areas? While they are sprinkled throughout the United States, they are concentrated in the southern half – with eight of them in one state. Read on to learn which metro areas could be poised to experience a housing crisis.
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.76%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.2%
- Average days to pending: 73.00
- Sales under list price: 62.70%
- Average days to close: 27.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 14.84%
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Shreveport-Bossier City, Louisiana
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.97%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 10.2%
- Average days to pending: 49.60
- Sales under list price: 52.33%
- Average days to close: 35.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 20.14%
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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.18%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.88%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 9.3%
- Average days to pending: 46.40
- Sales under list price: 55.18%
- Average days to close: 35.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 22.14%
Florence, South Carolina
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.36%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.87%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.4%
- Average days to pending: 44.00
- Sales under list price: 55.35%
- Average days to close: 40.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 19.75%
Longview, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.91%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.94%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.5%
- Average days to pending: 60.00
- Sales under list price: 59.10%
- Average days to close: 29.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 17.90%
Jackson, Mississippi
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.41%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.77%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.9%
- Average days to pending: 41.00
- Sales under list price: 60.60%
- Average days to close: 36.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 20.88%
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Dover, Delaware
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.89%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.17%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.4%
- Average days to pending: 32.60
- Sales under list price: 40.71%
- Average days to close: 43.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 21.23%
Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.34%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.64%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.2%
- Average days to pending: 65.80
- Sales under list price: 60.04%
- Average days to close: 31.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 20.57%
Corpus Christi, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.02%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.3%
- Average days to pending: 65.80
- Sales under list price: 65.69%
- Average days to close: 32.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 20.21%
New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.50%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.86%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.8%
- Average days to pending: 58.60
- Sales under list price: 66.33%
- Average days to close: 36.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 23.39%
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East Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.05%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.77%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.2%
- Average days to pending: 51.00
- Sales under list price: 55.86%
- Average days to close: 41.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 16.88%
Mobile, Alabama
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.25%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.68%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.9%
- Average days to pending: 41.20
- Sales under list price: 52.92%
- Average days to close: 37.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 19.36%
Ocala, Florida
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.43%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.1%
- Average days to pending: 55.20
- Sales under list price: 64.85%
- Average days to close: 36.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 27.22%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.74%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.63%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.2%
- Average days to pending: 54.20
- Sales under list price: 59.15%
- Average days to close: 30.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 26.68%
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Pueblo, Colorado
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.71%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 1.7%
- Average days to pending: 59.80
- Sales under list price: 52.69%
- Average days to close: 34.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 23.88%
Yuma, Arizona
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.90%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.78%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.9%
- Average days to pending: 50.40
- Sales under list price: 52.33%
- Average days to close: 32.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 14.30%
Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.72%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.90%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.8%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.8%
- Average days to pending: 30.00
- Sales under list price: 51.34%
- Average days to close: 35.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 19.42%
Columbia, South Carolina
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.74%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.75%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
- Average days to pending: 41.60
- Sales under list price: 55.05%
- Average days to close: 32.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 21.66%
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Utica-Rome, New York
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.31%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.78%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.1%
- Average days to pending: 49.80
- Sales under list price: 62.67%
- Average days to close: 64.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 15.28%
Saginaw, Michigan
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.82%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 11.1%
- Average days to pending: 42.40
- Sales under list price: 54.41%
- Average days to close: 35.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 17.22%
Hagerstown-Martinsburg, Maryland-West Virginia
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.68%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.88%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 2%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.3%
- Average days to pending: 31.80
- Sales under list price: 42.15%
- Average days to close: 40.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 18.42%
Joplin, Missouri
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.90%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 2.7%
- Average days to pending: 41.60
- Sales under list price: 55.52%
- Average days to close: 33.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 17.28%
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Fort Smith, Arkansas-Oklahoma
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.66%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.68%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
- Average days to pending: 53.00
- Sales under list price: 58.45%
- Average days to close: 31.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 15.53%
Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.13%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.3%
- Average days to pending: 56.40
- Sales under list price: 52.36%
- Average days to close: 53.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 12.47%
Muskegon, Michigan
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.61%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.4%
- Average days to pending: 30.40
- Sales under list price: 50.19%
- Average days to close: 36.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 18.99%
Panama City, Florida
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.03%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.55%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 9.4%
- Average days to pending: 66.40
- Sales under list price: 74.41%
- Average days to close: 35.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 22.98%
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Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pennsylvania
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.59%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
- Average days to pending: 37.20
- Sales under list price: 59.91%
- Average days to close: 38.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 18.70%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.35%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.57%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.3%
- Average days to pending: 50.80
- Sales under list price: 60.74%
- Average days to close: 39.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 27.69%
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, North Carolina
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.68%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
- Average days to pending: 45.60
- Sales under list price: 60.16%
- Average days to close: 39.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 13.19%
Jacksonville, North Carolina
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.40%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.08%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.2%
- Average days to pending: 22.00
- Sales under list price: 35.87%
- Average days to close: 34.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 17.36%
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Amarillo, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.76%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.61%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
- Rental vacancy rate: 9.7%
- Average days to pending: 37.20
- Sales under list price: 55.70%
- Average days to close: 30.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 21.70%
Syracuse, New York
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.43%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.98%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.9%
- Average days to pending: 31.80
- Sales under list price: 37.77%
- Average days to close: 63.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 10.48%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.57%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.54%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.8%
- Average days to pending: 51.60
- Sales under list price: 63.65%
- Average days to close: 30.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 22.71%
Macon-Bibb County, Georgia
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.63%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.66%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
- Rental vacancy rate: 9.5%
- Average days to pending: 42.60
- Sales under list price: 56.77%
- Average days to close: 32.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 17.07%
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Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Alabama
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.89%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.41%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 45.2%
- Average days to pending: 60.80
- Sales under list price: 76.11%
- Average days to close: 34.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 21.27%
Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.10%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.39%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 19.3%
- Average days to pending: 54.60
- Sales under list price: 72.18%
- Average days to close: 37.00
- Share of listings with a price cut: 25.09%
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, Kentucky
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.91%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
- Average days to pending: 52.60
- Sales under list price: 61.76%
- Average days to close: 32.75
- Share of listings with a price cut: 18.91%
Waco, Texas
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.60%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.47%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.6%
- Average days to pending: 54.00
- Sales under list price: 65.14%
- Average days to close: 32.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 23.97%
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Erie, Pennsylvania
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.73%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.67%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.7%
- Average days to pending: 41.00
- Sales under list price: 51.55%
- Average days to close: 40.25
- Share of listings with a price cut: 14.35%
Champaign-Urbana, Illinois
- Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.08%
- Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 11.1%
- Average days to pending: 43.20
- Sales under list price: 65.68%
- Average days to close: 39.50
- Share of listings with a price cut: 15.42%
Andrew Lisa contributed to the reporting for this article.
Methodology: To find the 40 metro areas that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at all metros with available data in the United States across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2021 American Community Survey; (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2021 American Community Survey; (5) mean days from when a house hits market to pending sale as sourced from Zillow; (6) percentage of homes sold below final list price as sourced from Zillow; (7) mean days from pending to closed sale as sourced from Zillow; and (8) the percentage of listings with a price cut as sourced from Zillow. These eight factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the metros most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 3x and factors (4) and (7) were weighted 0.5x. All data was collected on and up to date as of July 11, 2023.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Housing Market 2023: 40 Places Poised for a Housing Crisis
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