Though it’s too soon to know with full certainty what real estate — and mortgage rates — will look like in 2025, several states are currently in a position that makes them vulnerable to experiencing a housing crisis.
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To determine which states could be at risk, GOBankingRates looked at each state’s mortgage delinquencies, homeowner vacancy rates, rental vacancy rates and foreclosure rates. These factors were then scored, with the highest score indicating the state most likely to be poised for a housing crisis.
Ranked from states with the lowest to highest score, see which 15 states could be heading to a housing crisis.
15. Nevada
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.33%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
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14. Connecticut
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.83%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.6%
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13. Indiana
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.93%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 5.8%
12. Delaware
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.9%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.8%
11. Georgia
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
10. Maryland
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.93%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
- Rental vacancy rate: 4.9%
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9. Arkansas
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.5%
8. West Virginia
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7%
7. Oklahoma
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.07%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 6.8%
6. Alabama
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.53%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.5%
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5. Texas
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.37%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.4%
4. Florida
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.7%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.6%
3. South Carolina
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.3%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.3%
2. Mississippi
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.73%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
- Rental vacancy rate: 8.6%
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1. Louisiana
- % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.5%
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.8%
Methodology: In order to find states that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at each state’s: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2023 American Community Survey; (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2023 American Community Survey; and (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from ATTOM’s October 2024 data. These five factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the state most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x. All data was collected on and up to date as of Dec.12, 2024.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 15 States That Could Be Heading for a Housing Crisis in 2025
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