Key Points
The SpaceX IPO could kickstart the robotaxi industry.
Rivian should emerge as an unlikely beneficiary.
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This summer, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is expected to accelerate production and deliveries of its R2 SUV. Scaling R2 orders is a big deal. As Rivian's first vehicle priced under $50,000, the R2 could do what the Model 3 and Model Y did for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). That is, it has the potential to transform Rivian from a niche luxury automaker into an EV behemoth.
Over the next few years, I expect Rivian's sales growth to accelerate sharply as R2 sales ramp. Rivian also plans to begin production of additional affordable vehicles -- the R3 and R3X -- either this or next year, aiding sales growth even more.
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Shares could be a buy based on this growth catalyst alone. But there's one other growth catalyst that may catch analysts by surprise: the upcoming SpaceX IPO.
Here's how the SpaceX IPO will help Rivian
I expect the upcoming SpaceX IPO to break records, with the company fetching a valuation of up to $2 trillion. The IPO is expected to raise somewhere between $50 billion and $75 billion. With dreams of putting data centers into space and establishing a permanent colony on the moon, expect SpaceX to put this money to work quickly.
A good chunk of SpaceX's new capital hoard will likely be invested into its AI division, xAI. Tesla -- another Elon Musk venture -- invested $2 billion in xAI earlier this year, giving it direct access to whatever xAI builds with its increased capital. xAI has purchased many Tesla products in the past, but the more critical aspect of the partnership is xAI's involvement in Tesla's self-driving software. Autonomous driving capabilities are accelerating faster than ever before, thanks to artificial intelligence, the exact type of software that xAI specializes in.
In short, more money for SpaceX means more money for xAI. More money for xAI means faster self-driving tech innovation, giving Tesla a valuable advantage in targeting the quickly emerging robotaxi market, which many experts believe will be worth trillions of dollars globally over the long term.
Image source: Getty Images.
What exactly does all of this have to do with Rivian? Rivian has emerged as a promising competitor to Tesla in the robotaxi field. But Rivian isn't expected to run its own robotaxi service. Instead, it will supply autonomous vehicles to robotaxi operators that lack their own manufacturing capabilities, like Uber Technologies and Alphabet, which owns Waymo. Indeed, Uber has already forged a $1.25 billion deal with Rivian to supply up to 50,000 R2 SUVs to power its robotaxi arm.
The robotaxi industry is in its early innings, but a growing number of well-financed competitors are starting to crowd the field. We're talking competitors with capex budgets in the tens of billions of dollars per year. If Tesla emerges as a leader thanks to advances in its autonomous capabilities, we could see peers like Waymo and Uber race to secure orders from manufacturers like Rivian. After all, without physical vehicles, mature self-driving technology is limited in value.
In short, the SpaceX IPO has the potential to fast-track the robotaxi market. Rivian is already emerging as a key supplier. a fast tracked robotaxi market could grant the company several more major orders, similar to what the previous Uber deal delivered.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
