Chartstopper: October 9, 2026

This Week

For a week that essentially ended flat for the Nasdaq-100® (just off Tuesday’s record high) and 10-year Treasury yields, there were certainly some notable developments, especially in the Iran conflict and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

Regarding the Iran conflict, the start of the week saw the Yemeni military retake a port city at the south end of the Red Sea, key to oil exports, from the Houthis. Then, there were reports that President Trump was considering striking Iran before the midterm elections, only to be contradicted by President Trump, saying the U.S. and Iran were “having productive discussions” and that “we will not be attacking Iran” before the midterms.

After all that, U.S. oil prices were flat for the week just above $90 per barrel, while international prices were up a couple of dollars to nearly $105 as Hurricane Isaias may disrupt U.S. oil supply.

Regarding the Fed, the September meeting minutes illuminated that, while all members voted for the first hike in over three years, the majority did so on “risk-management grounds,” while the minority saw it as “necessary” to get inflation back to target. Looking ahead, “most” expect “another increase… by year end.”On Thursday, however, Fed Governor Chris Waller said he sees “additional hikes” (emphasis on the “s”), though not necessarily at “consecutive meetings.”

For now, odds of a hike later this month are below 20%, but that could change with next Wednesday’s CPI report.

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Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (September)

• Wednesday: CPI Inflation (September)

• Thursday: Retail Sales (September), Producer Price Inflation (September), Jobless Claims (week ending Oct. 10), ASML Earnings (Q3)

• Friday: Industrial Production (September)