Chartstopper: September 11, 2026

This Week

Between rising oil prices and this week’s inflation data, markets are increasingly certain the Federal Reserve will hike rates next week.

A big reason is that today’s CPI report showed core CPI accelerating in August, rising 0.3% month-on-month, boosted in part by wireless phone services, airfares, and hotels. That was a bigger gain than markets expected (0.2%), and while the Fed’s target is headline (PCE) inflation, the Fed often prefers core inflation as a better guide to inflation trends.

Another reason is that U.S. oil prices rose nearly $10 this week to $100 per barrel – putting it around its high since May. This comes as the Iran conflict intensifies, with attacks prompting Saudi Arabia to close energy facilities and shut down its East-West oil pipeline that can carry 7 million barrels per day. The U.S. struck five Iranian oil tankers, resulting in Iranian retaliation. There have also been reports that Iran will escalate its counterattacks and that President Trump has been briefed that the conflict could last through the end of his term.

So, markets now see a greater than 85% chance that the Fed hikes rates next week, compared to just 50% before last week’s strong jobs report.

That wasn’t all for rates drama this week, though. Ten-year Treasury yields rose after the Treasury Department announced it was buying back $6 billion in bonds – below expectations for up to $10 billion in buybacks.

As a result, 10-year Treasury yields are up nearly 20 basis points this week to almost 5% – near a three-year high. And higher rates weighed on stocks, leaving the Nasdaq-100® down 1% for the week.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, Retail Sales (Aug.)
• Thursday: Jobless Claims (week ending Sept. 12)
• Friday: Industrial Production (Aug.)