Nasdaq-100® Outperforms the S&P 500 on Earnings Growth and Surprise Trends

Aug 17, 2026 12:06PM EDT

Key takeaways

Nasdaq-100 has delivered stronger top-line growth than the S&P 500 over the last three years, with year-over-year quarterly revenue growth reaching 18.6% in Q1 2026 versus 11.8% for the S&P 500.
Nasdaq-100 dominated EPS growth in almost all quarters with historically strong EPS growth of 45.6% in Q1 2026 vs 28.8% for the S&P 500, with robust earnings contribution from its largest constituents.
Nasdaq-100’s growth leadership is broad-based across sectors, with notable revenue and EPS strength in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Energy and Basic Materials.
On surprise trends, Nasdaq-100 remains stronger on an index-weighted basis, and excluding Nasdaq-100 constituents materially weakens the broader S&P 500’s revenue and EPS beat profile.

Nasdaq-100 continues to lead on revenue growth and, in several periods, EPS growth

The Nasdaq-100 (NDX®) has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) on year-over-year growth in quarterly revenue over the last three years with revenue growth rising from 4.5% in Q1’23 to 18.6% in Q1’26, versus 4.2% to 11.8% for the S&P 500. The outperformance has been consistently maintained from Q2’23 to date.

EPS growth has been more volatile quarter to quarter, but the Nasdaq-100 still delivered higher growth rates than the S&P 500 in 12 consecutive quarters, with the last quarter of underperformance recorded in Q1’23. In Q2’23, Nasdaq-100 delivered strong EPS growth of 17.3% while the S&P 500 recorded a negative growth of -2.5%. It was the first of seven instances during which NDX outperformed on EPS growth by at least 10 percentage points, including 29 percentage points of outperformance in Q4’23.

Sector growth rates showcase broad-based Nasdaq-100 leadership

The revenue growth by sector (per ICB Industry) shows Nasdaq-100 leadership across most sectors, with outperformance in major sectors such as Technology (15.2% vs. 13.0%), Consumer Discretionary (10.0% vs 5.8%), Basic Materials (3.7% vs -1.9%), Real Estate (12.4% vs. 7.3%), and Energy (12.9% vs. -3.8%). The S&P 500 leads only in a limited number of areas such as Consumer Staples (6.2% vs. 4.3%). In other sectors, there were similar growth rates, though the Nasdaq-100 has no exposure to Financials by design (see Table 1). The EPS growth story also supports the sector dominance of NDX with notable outperformance in Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Basic Materials and Energy as shown in Table 2.

Nasdaq-100 generally outperformed on an index-weighted basis in revenue and earnings beat performance based on FactSet data

Based on the absolute number of companies that beat consensus estimates, NDX looks like a slight underperformer (on average, 83% of companies beat EPS estimates per quarter vs 87% for SPX) (see Chart 3).

When it comes to index weight, NDX significantly outperformed, with 86% on average beating EPS expectations compared to just 63% for SPX. That is, on average, 23 percentage points of outperformance per quarter during the last three years. Furthermore, SPX’s EPS beat performance drastically declined from Q2 2025 onwards while NDX was relatively resilient during the period (see Chart 4).

When it comes to revenue beating market expectations, Nasdaq-100 has outperformed S&P 500 in every quarter for the last three years (see Chart 5).

On average, 83% of NDX’s index weight beat revenue expectations each quarter compared to 77% for SPX. Based on absolute number of companies, 78% of NDX constituents beat revenue estimates compared to 68% for SPX (see Chart 6).

Excluding Nasdaq-100 constituents weakens the broader S&P 500 profile

87 out of the 100 companies in NDX are also in SPX, representing about 51% of the market capitalization of SPX (as of March 31, 2026). This overlap has greatly helped drive SPX fundamental results in recent years. When we consider SPX excluding NDX constituents, the S&P 500’s beat profile deteriorates meaningfully. Without Nasdaq-100 members, the S&P 500’s average revenue beat rate falls from 77% to 70% (see Chart 7), while the average EPS beat rate declines from 63% to 47% (see Chart 8). This suggests that Nasdaq-100 companies account for a disproportionate share of earnings and revenue surprise strength within the broader U.S. large-cap universe.

Overall, the Nasdaq-100 has been the stronger index not only on aggregate revenue and EPS growth, but also on the breadth of reported results. Even where the S&P 500 shows a slightly higher share of companies beating EPS expectations, the Nasdaq-100 remains decisively stronger on an index-weighted basis, indicating that its larger constituents have contributed more meaningfully to index-level outperformance.

Disclaimer:

Nasdaq®, Nasdaq-100 Index®, Nasdaq-100®, and NDX® are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.

Information set forth contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Nasdaq cautions readers that any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and that actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as “will,” “may”, and other words and terms of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to future activities and results. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties or other factors beyond Nasdaq’s control. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Nasdaq’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q which are available on Nasdaq’s investor relations website at http://ir.nasdaq.com and the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Nasdaq undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.