Chartstopper: August 7, 2026

This Week

This week was all about today’s jobs report and developments in the Iran conflict, both of which might take some pressure off the Federal Reserve.

Today’s jobs report was weak, but not quite as bad as it seems. The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, against expectations for gaining 80,000, while the last two months combined were revised down by about 100,000 jobs. The negative headline number was mostly because local government, which includes public school workers, lost 57,000 jobs, but it can be volatile around the end of the school year. On the plus side, the private sector added 30,000 jobs.

Overall, the labor market is clearly softer than it appeared a month ago, taking some of the pressure off the Fed to hike rates. In fact, markets are now pricing just over one hike this year, down from 1½ a week ago.

Developments in the Iran conflict are easing inflation pressures a little, too, with U.S. oil prices down slightly this week. That’s because President Trump canceled attacks “subject to being able to rapidly make a deal,” followed by reports that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (except to the U.S. and Israel possibly). The hope is that reopening the Strait lets the U.S. and Iran resume peace negotiations.

So, with odds of a Fed hike falling and chances of a peace deal with Iran improving, the Nasdaq-100® is up 5% this week and 10-year Treasury yields are down over 5 basis points to 4.65%.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (July)
• Wednesday: CPI (July)
• Thursday: Producer Price Index (July), Jobless Claims (Week Ending Aug. 8)
• Friday: Retail Sales (July), U of M Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary Aug.)