Big Week of Data: Inflation & Q3 Earnings
Monday, October 12th, 2026
We begin a new trading week with increased turmoil in the Middle East. Over the weekend, two air strikes on Saudi Arabia’s second-largest airport, in Riyadh, claimed the lives of 14 and injured more than 300. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels from Yemen are deemed responsible for the attacks, who have attacked Saudi Arabia in various locations over the past week. Nearly 100% of flights have been cancelled at the airport.
Clearly, the war that began with U.S. and Israeli bomb strikes on Iran in late February has now spread to the greater Middle East. Thankfully, at least as of this morning, spot oil prices are higher but not at the levels experienced earlier in the year: WTI is currently $93 per barrel (/bbl) and Brent crude is $106/bbl, both +1.5%.
Similarly, bond yields are somewhat elevated, as they pause for the national holiday (Columbus Day or Indigenous Peoples Day, if you prefer). These are off early morning highs seen last Friday, which were among the highest in the past 20 years: the 10-year is currently +5.24%, the 2-year is +4.80% and the 30-year +5.60% at this hour. For some perspective, the average 10-year yield thus for in 2026 is +4.49%, 20 basis points (bps) up year over year, and clearly establishing higher levels as the months move along.
What to Expect from the Stock Market This Week
It’s the biggest week formarket newsin more than a month: both CPI and PPI inflation reports for September come out later this week, along with a host of other economic reports. These include Small-Business Optimism, Existing Home Sales, BLS’ Beige Book, Empire State/Philly Fed manufacturing, Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization and, of course, Weekly Jobless Claims.
Of these, the Inflation Rate from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is almost certainly to be the most important. Last month, market breathed a sigh of relief when CPI year over year (aka “the Inflation Rate”) came in at “just” +3.4%. This is expected to bump up +30 bps, while core CPI is expected up +10 bps to +2.5%. This is the retail inflation metric. Wholesale inflation, depicted in Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, were much higher last month: +5.4% on headline and +4.6% on core.
Further, Q3 earnings season — while already having seen a handful of companies report — begins in earnest this week. On Tuesday alone, we’ll hear from big banks JPMorgan JPM, Citigroup C, Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS. Outside of high finance, tomorrow morning also brings us Q2 numbers from Johnson & Johnson JNJ and UnitedHealthcare UNH. Of these, only UNH has a “buy” rating (Zacks Rank #2); the rest are Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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