Where Will Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Be in 5 Years?
Key Points
Broad economic pressures and recent customer illnesses tied to Chipotle's food could hurt the chain's short-term results.
The fast-casual company plans to keep opening new locations.
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When investors try to predict future stock prices, they're engaging in an activity that's both an art and a science. That's because no one knows what will happen, obviously.
But those who own or are considering purchasing stock in a company should make the effort. Doing it in a way that has some chance of being accurate requires developing an understanding of the business and making some assumptions, but you'll find the effort worthwhile.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has encountered some challenges this year. But where can we expect its stock price to be in five years?
Image source: Getty Images.
The business
Chipotle Mexican Grill serves Mexican-style food such as burritos, quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The fast-casual restaurant seeks to use fresh ingredients without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives.
The company has had a lot of success, but results have been challenging recently. That's because consumers have faced broadly higher prices for most of their purchases, and their paychecks haven't kept up with inflation.
In the second quarter, Chipotle's same-store sales increased 2.2%. While that was not great, it was an improvement from the first quarter's 0.5% gain. Positively, in Q2, higher traffic contributed 1 percentage point to that growth. That shows people remain attracted to the restaurant.
The spending breakout shows how persistent inflation has weighed on consumers. Higher spending added 1.2 percentage points to the same-store sales gain. However, this was entirely due to Chipotle's price increases (1.6 percentage points), and customers shifting to lower-priced items subtracted 0.4 percentage points from the final result.
Adding to the company's woes, a salmonella outbreak was linked to jalapeños served at Chipotle. Still, management appeared to act quickly to address the issue with its supplier, which means customers aren't likely to permanently stop visiting its restaurants.
Meanwhile, the company has continued its expansion plans. Starting in 1993, it grew to nearly 4,100 restaurants as of June 30, 2026.
Management opened 144 new locations, net of closures, during the first six months of the year. It plans to open 350 to 370 restaurants total for the year.
Putting it together
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were flat in the second quarter, compared to a year ago. Assuming the inflationary environment becomes more benign, people may feel more comfortable spending money on eating out. That should help Chipotle's sales and earnings growth.
Chipotle earned $1.14 a share in 2025. From 2020 through 2025, EPS grew 357%.
Assuming its earnings grow at a much slower rate over the next five years -- say, 200% -- that would bring Chipotle's EPS to $3.42 in 2030.
The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.
Assuming that ratio stays constant, multiplying the EPS by the P/E points to a stock price of $106. That's more than triple the current stock price of $33.50.
Of course, that's still a rapid earnings growth rate. What if it slows down to 50% over the next five years? Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price would increase to $53, 58% above its current price. Investors would undoubtedly be pleased with that performance.
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Lawrence Rothman, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
