Soy Rallies Into Shortened Week

The bean market rallied back above the $12 mark and closed at or near the session highs. November touched the round number, but closed 1 ¼ cents under the mark. Soymeal futures went home on Monday with $1.60 to $2.60 gains. Soy Oil futures led the way up on Monday with gains of as much as 2.9%. The market will be closed on Good Friday and will resume after the Easter Weekend. 

The weekly Export Inspections data showed 769k MT of beans were shipped during the week that ended 3/21. That was 69k MT more than last week, but was under the 893k MT shipped during the same week last year. The season’s total reached 36.55 MMT, which is now 8.4 MMT behind last year’s pace. 

Ahead of Thursday’s reports, traders are looking for USDA to report soybean stocks at 1.835 bbu. That would be 149 mbu looser yr/yr, as Q2 demand is expected to be 172 mbu below last year. Q1 demand was a 4-yr low when shown in the Jan report. 

Survey respondents are looking for USDA to report soybean acreage intentions at 86.7m acres on average. That would be 3.1m above last year’s area, but is under the 87.5m Outlook Forum assumption. The full range of public estimates is from 84.3m to 89 million acres. 

USDA’s attaché released their preliminary 24/25 estimates for Chinese soybean imports at 103 MMT. That would be down from the 103-105 MMT forecasted for old crop.  The BA Grain Exchange is sticking with their 52.5 MMT soybean crop estimate, with USDA currently at 50 MMT. 

 

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.09 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $11.52, up 16 3/4 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.21 3/4, up 16 1/4 cents,

Nov 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.98 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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