Rocket Lab Stock: Bull vs. Bear
Key Points
Rocket Lab recently reported record revenue and has tripled its launch cadence over the last four-and-a-half years.
It also trades at a high valuation and had to push back the first Neutron launch.
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) has had an eventful year, including major acquisitions, record revenue, and multiple contracts with the U.S. Space Force. But it has also had to delay the launch of its highly awaited Neutron rocket, and its stock is expensive, even after pulling back from the all-time high of $151 it set in May.
This has made it one of the more divisive stocks on the market. Let's look at the bull and bear cases to see whether Rocket Lab is worth investing in.
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Bull case: The business keeps growing
In terms of financial performance, Rocket Lab delivered an excellent first half of 2026. It set revenue records in both quarters, most recently with $234 million in Q2 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase. Its backlog increased 137% year over year to a record $2.36 billion, and it's guiding for revenue of $250 million to $265 million in Q3.
Although Neutron's launch is delayed until Q4 2026 at the earliest, Electron, the company's small-lift rocket, has been a success. On Aug. 20, Rocket Lab launched the 93rd Electron mission overall and the 14th of the year. Rocket Lab's launch cadence has also tripled over the last four-and-a-half years, from two launches in Q4 2022 to six in Q2 2026.
Rocket Lab's launch business is progressing quickly, and defense contracts are becoming a growing part of its revenue. Space Force awarded it a $266 million multi-launch contract in July and a $397 million contract to deliver multiple Flatellite spacecraft on Neutron earlier this month.
Bear case: An expensive multiple relying on an unflown rocket
Rocket Lab's revenue may be increasing rapidly, but it still trades at about 51 times trailing sales (as of Aug. 26). It's also unprofitable, reporting a net loss of $49 million in Q2 2026. In fairness, this is par for the course with high-profile space stocks. For comparison, Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX, trades at 87 times trailing sales and lost $541 million in Q2 2026.
The bull case for Rocket Lab also relies heavily on a rocket that hasn't successfully launched yet. During a pressure test in January, Neutron's first-stage tank ruptured, delaying the launch date. The 2026 launch window is closing, and any further delays will almost certainly push the first launch into 2027.
Although Neutron's first flight is important, CEO Peter Beck says that "it's really about how do we get to flight 10 in the shortest time possible." The company is focused on getting it right from the beginning to avoid needing to go back and make changes later.
Is Rocket Lab a buy?
Rocket Lab is worth considering for growth-focused investors, as it's one of the leaders in a potentially massive industry. McKinsey has projected that the global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035.
The primary issue for Rocket Lab at the moment is the Neutron delay, but that's a normal occurrence for space companies. On a positive note, the first Neutron launch could flip Rocket Lab's adjusted EBITDA positive by the following quarter, according to CFO Adam Spice.
Rocket Lab stock is volatile, and the valuation remains high, but rapidly growing companies often trade at high multiples. Given the company's recent results and the space industry's long-term outlook, the current price appears to be a good buying opportunity.
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Lyle Daly has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
