Mostly Good News in Econ Data: Retail Sales, Import Prices, Empire State

Friday, July 15, 2022

We conclude this eventful week in the markets with a heaping helping of economic data and Q2 earnings reports ahead of today’s opening bell. The good news is that we have more evidence that inflation has peaked, and that the U.S. consumer still looks healthy. The bad news? Big banks look to have had a rough time of it last quarter.

Retail Sales for June reached +1.0%, a tick above the +0.9% expected and the strongest figure since March’s +1.2%, which was the cycle high. The is off an upwardly revised -0.1% from the previous month. One main caveat with these numbers: they are not adjusted for inflation, so expect some of this consumer strength to be swept away.

Subtracting volatile high-ticket-item vehicle sales, we still see +1.0%, 30 basis points (bps) higher than expected, 40 bps up from the upwardly revised +0.6% for May, and the highest since we saw +2.0% in March. Ex-autos & gas, we’re at +0.7%, while the Control numbers came in at a very strong +0.8%, though this follows a downwardly revised -0.3% the previous month.

Import Prices for June shrank to +0.2% from an expected +0.7% — more good news for the economy on the inflation front. It’s also less than half the downwardly revised +0.5% in May. Ex-petrol brings this headline figure to -0.4%. Year over year, we’re still in double digits at +10.7%, but this is well off the +11.3% anticipated, and down from March’s +13.1%, which was an 11-year high. Exports came in at +0.7% — almost half what analysts were looking for.

July’s Empire State Manufacturing Index also ushered in some good news: +11.1 on headline was a nice bounce from the -2.0 expected and -1.2 in June. It’s only the third time in this year’s seven months we’ve seen a positive print from the manufacturers in New York State. More welcome economic traction.

Earlier today, China reported a Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) headline of +0.4% year over year. This is a good figure as well, although when we look at quarter over quarter we see a rather ugly -2.6%. This is the second-worst number since the pandemic-plagued Q1 of 2020. Consider this data a wash as we await China’s full re-entry into the global market.

Citigroup C shares are up +5% in the pre-market following strong beats on both Q2 earnings and revenues reported this morning: $2.19 per share easily topped the $1.67 expected (though still off the year-ago $2.84 per share) on $19.6 billion, +11% year over year. Big beats are something of a habit for Citi: the trailing four-quarter average beat is +24.5%; the company has not missed on earnings since Q4 2014.

For other Q2 earnings data this morning, click on these links:

Wells Fargo (WFC) Misses in Q2
PNC (PNC) Posts Mixed Q2 Data
U.S. Bancorp (USB) Shares Up on Q2 Beat

Pre-market futures are strong on the aggregate data this morning. We’re still down for the week, of course, but at this hour the Dow is +375 points, the S&P 500 is +45 and the Nasdaq has gained +125 points thus far. We hope to end this final day of the trading week on a positive note going into the heart of Q2 earnings season beginning next week.

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