Here's My Nvidia Stock Price Forecast for the End of September
Key Points
Nvidia stock jumped after the company's latest earnings report on Aug. 26, demonstrating high growth and a strong outlook.
It recently announced that it's acquiring AI development platform Hugging Face.
Nvidia stock is trading at a multiyear-low valuation.
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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock has gained 1,600% since ChatGPT came out in 2022, catapulting it to the top of the stock market. It has retained its dominance over the past few years despite many challenges, and although it faltered earlier this year, it's back to beating the market, up 24% year to date.
Here's my prediction for where it's going to end the month.
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No news isn't good news
Nvidia reported its latest earnings on Aug. 26, and the phenomenal report sent the stock higher. It's not showing any signs of slowing down; revenue increased 106% over last year in the fiscal 2027 second quarter (ended July 27), and management is guiding for it to rise about 90% in the third quarter.
It's also guiding for revenue to increase 70% in fiscal 2028, and according to CFO Colette Kress, it's a "supply constrained outlook." The top hyperscalers are expected to spend $800 billion this year and $1.3 billion next year. Nvidia gets a substantial piece of all of that.
Image source: Nvidia.
However, Nvidia stock is still off its high from May. Without earnings news, Nvidia stock trades on potential announcements and external factors. It recently jumped on the news that it's acquiring AI development platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, and other significant news could lift it higher. There could be outside news, too, like interest rate movements and unexpected artificial intelligence (AI) updates.
Stocks sometimes move when they become too cheap to ignore or too expensive to support. Nvidia stock trades at 19 times trailing-12-month sales and 29 times trailing-12-month earnings. Those are near multiyear lows, implying that as Nvidia gets bigger and faces more competition, the market isn't willing to pay as much for the stock.
NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts
The September effect
Another factor could simply be the time of the year. There's a phenomenon called the September effect, which is that September, on average, tends to be the worst month of the year for stocks. That doesn't mean it's terrible every year, but it's a trend. Even if the market does decline this month, that doesn't mean every stock will decline. Absent any particular news, though, the market could be weighed down by whatever it is that causes the September effect.
So where does that leave Nvidia stock by the end of the month? It just got a boost from the Hugging Face announcement, and it has surpassed the high it reached after the earnings report. Without further major announcements that could make the stock more valuable, I don't see it moving too much. The market isn't willing to value it much higher than it is today, and since it just jumped, it could even slightly decline in value.
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Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
