Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Tesla (TSLA)
Key Figures
- $103.6B revenue (trailing 12 months)
- 1.64M vehicle deliveries (FY2025)
- 19.0% gross margin (trailing 12 months)
- $29.3B net cash (FY2025)
- ~187× forward p/e (9/15/2026)
VOL 1 • ISSUE 23 • OCTOBER 2026
Tesla built its business selling electric cars. Its fastest-growing lines sell batteries and software.
TSLA • Consumer Discretionary • Index Constituent
This Issue — TSLA
Tesla, a current Nasdaq-100® constituent at ~2.90% index weight, designs and builds battery electric vehicles and sells them direct, through its own stores and service centers rather than franchised dealers. It also builds battery storage systems, from a home battery to grid-scale installations, and sells its Full Self-Driving software as a monthly subscription. Automotive still brings in most of the revenue, while the energy and services lines have grown every year since 2022 (per company filings). Storage carries a higher gross margin than the cars do (per company disclosures).
Business Model & Revenue Drivers
Three Businesses, One Battery
A Model Y is ordered on a phone, sold without a dealership, and picks up features by overnight software update. Tesla builds the car, the battery pack, the motors and the software, then sells and services it through its own stores. Automotive brought in $69.5B of FY2025 revenue (per company filings).
The other two lines run on the same engineering. Energy Generation and Storage sells battery systems, from a unit on a garage wall to grid-scale Megapack installations, and earned a 20.4% gross margin in Q2 2026 against 16.3% for automotive excluding regulatory credits (per company disclosures). Services and Other covers charging, insurance, parts and software subscriptions.
Gross margin by business (Q2 2026)
- Energy Storage: 4%
- Automotive: 3%
Competitive Moat
Tesla Makes and Sells Its Own Cars
Tesla designs its own battery packs, powertrains and vehicle software, and sells direct through its own stores, service centers and charging network. That structure lets it change prices and features across cars already on the road. According to company disclosures and Bloomberg research, running manufacturing, retail and software in-house may give Tesla operational advantages over some competitors.
The same engineering sells into a second market. Energy Generation and Storage revenue has more than tripled since FY2022, at margins above automotive mid-teens levels (per company filings and Bloomberg research). Full Self-Driving adds a third source of revenue, sold monthly on vehicles already delivered.
FY2025 Revenue by business ($B)
- Automotive: $69.5
- Energy & Services: $25.3
Operating Strengths
Three Operating Measures
$44.1B CASH AND SHORT-TERM INVESTMENTS (FY2025)
The cash balance has risen in every year since FY2022, from $22.2B, which funds the current investment cycle (per company filings).
55% SELF-DRIVING ATTACH RATE, NORTH AMERICA (Q2 2026)
A record share of North American buyers added Full Self-Driving, taking subscribers to 1.48M, up 56% year over year (per company disclosures).
$14.7B OPERATING CASH FLOW (FY2025)
Cash from operations has held at roughly $13B to $15B a year since FY2022, as much of the recent cost increase is non-cash (per company filings).
Growth Catalysts
The Software Opportunity in Cars Already on the Road
Full Self-Driving subscription revenue is expected to reach approximately $5.9B by 2030, from about $2.3B in 2026 (per Bloomberg research estimates). Provisional approvals arrived in the Netherlands in April 2026 and Denmark in June 2026, which represents potential outside North America (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research). Cybercab production commenced this year, and Robotaxi is live in seven US metropolitan areas (per company disclosures).
- Storage capacity coming online. Megafactory Texas is nearing completion and Megapack 3 is expected in 2026, into a battery energy storage market (grid-scale batteries holding power for later use) estimated at about $100B over five to ten years (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research estimates)
- Robotics in the ramp stage. Production lines for the Optimus humanoid robot are being installed at the company's Texas factory, with commercialization planned for 2027 (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research)
Historical Context
FY2022 – FY2025 Energy and Services Revenue
~27% SHARE OF REVENUE FROM ENERGY AND SERVICES (FY2025)
- FY22: ~12% OF REVENUE; $10.0B
- FY23: $14.3B
- FY24: $20.6B
- FY25: ~27% OF REVENUE; $25.3B
SOURCE TESLA FILINGS; ENERGY GENERATION AND STORAGE PLUS SERVICES AND OTHER REVENUE, AS REPORTED FOR EACH FISCAL YEAR
Total revenue grew from $81.5B in FY2022 to $97.7B in FY2024 and was $94.8B in FY2025, with automotive peaking in FY2023. Across those four years the non-automotive lines grew every year, taking their share of revenue from about 12% to about 27% (per company filings). Consensus expects revenue of $106.2B in FY2026 (Bloomberg consensus estimates).
ENERGY AND STORAGE REVENUE (FY2022 → FY2025): $3.9B → $12.8B ~48%/yr
SERVICES AND OTHER REVENUE (FY2022 → FY2025): $6.1B → $12.5B 2×+
Tesla's Robotaxi fleet has run more than 380,000 unsupervised miles across seven US cities. The Cybercab began carrying riders in Austin in September 2026.
Valuation & Investment Thesis
What the Price Is Paying For
Tesla trades at approximately 187× expected earnings for the next twelve months, one of the largest premiums in the electric-vehicle group as of 9/15/2026 (per Bloomberg research). Consensus has diluted earnings per share at $1.09 in FY2026 and $2.38 in FY2028, so the multiple rests on later periods (Bloomberg consensus estimates).
At a forward earnings multiple of approximately 187×, investors may consider whether the expected contributions from autonomy, robotics and energy storage support current valuation levels.
Key Risks
What Could Change the Story
- Automotive margin pressure, as pricing competition, incentive costs and a 66.7% year-over-year decline in Q2 2026 regulatory credit revenue weigh on gross margin (per company disclosures)
- The capital spending cycle, with FY2026 capital expenditure guided above $25B, roughly three times FY2025, which is expected to turn free cash flow negative (company guidance and Bloomberg research estimates)
- Execution and timing, since Robotaxi revenue is not expected to be material in 2026, with a larger contribution anticipated in 2027 to 2028 (per Bloomberg research estimates)
- Competition, after BYD, the Chinese electric-vehicle and battery maker, passed Tesla on annual deliveries in 2025 and third-quarter 2026 deliveries tracked about 9% below the prior year (per Bloomberg research)
- A premium multiple that leaves limited room for delays in autonomy or robotics milestones (per Bloomberg research)
What This Means For You
The Index Angle, in Plain Terms
In your Index Fund
If you hold a fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index®, you already own this.
- Index composition follows transparent eligibility criteria, and TSLA is a current constituent at ~2.90% index weight: about $2.90 of every $100 tracking the Nasdaq-100
- A Model Y in traffic and a home battery on a neighbor's garage wall are two of the three businesses
- Most of the revenue still comes from building cars, so this holding moves with vehicle prices and factory costs
Decoding the Jargon
Two terms doing the heavy lifting in this issue.
- Attach rate. The share of new buyers who add an option. Full Self-Driving hit a record 55% in North America in Q2 2026
- Forward price-to-earnings (P/E). Share price divided by expected earnings for the next year. At about 187×, the price leans on profits further out
Bottom Line
Inside the Nasdaq-100®, Tesla sits where the car business meets the power grid and software. How fast that second half grows is the open question.
About the Series
The Nasdaq-100® is a globally recognized index of 100 of the most innovative large cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. The Inside the Index series profiles one constituent each issue, from software to soft drinks and computer chips to potato chips, exploring what makes each business distinctive and the metrics investors should know.
Sources
NASDAQ GLOBAL INDEXES. TESLA, INC. SEC FILINGS VIA SEC EDGAR: FY2025 FORM 10-K, Q2 2026 FORM 10-Q; TESLA INVESTOR RELATIONS. REVENUE AND SEGMENT DETAIL, VEHICLE DELIVERIES AND PRODUCTION, MARGINS, CASH, DEBT, OPERATING AND FREE CASH FLOW, CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GUIDANCE, Q2 2026 RESULTS, FULL SELF-DRIVING SUBSCRIBER AND ATTACH-RATE FIGURES, REGULATORY APPROVALS IN THE NETHERLANDS AND DENMARK, CYBERCAB AND ROBOTAXI STATUS, AND MEGAFACTORY TEXAS AND OPTIMUS PRODUCTION PLANS PER TESLA COMPANY DISCLOSURES. VALUATION MULTIPLES, FORWARD ESTIMATES, ENERGY-STORAGE MARKET SIZING, SECTOR PREMIUM COMPARISON, FULL SELF-DRIVING SUBSCRIPTION REVENUE PROJECTIONS, ANNUAL DELIVERY RANKING AND Q3 2026 DELIVERY TRACKING PER BLOOMBERG RESEARCH AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. DATA AS OF 9/15/2026.
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