Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Starbucks (SBUX)
Key Figures
- $37.2B FY2025 revenue
- 41,304 global stores
- +7.9% global comp sales (Q3 FY26)
- 14.4% adj. operating margin (Q3 FY26)
- ~33x forward P/E (FY27E)
VOL 1 • ISSUE 08 • AUGUST 2026
Starbucks runs most of its stores itself. So when it reinvents the experience, the upside lands on its own books.
SBUX • Consumer Discretionary • Index Constituent
This Issue — SBUX
Starbucks, a current Nasdaq-100® constituent at ~0.55% index weight, is one of the world's largest coffeehouse networks, and it operates most of its stores itself rather than franchising. The "Back to Starbucks" turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol has now delivered four straight quarters of positive global comparable sales, and Q3 FY2026 results beat consensus on revenue, margin and profit by a wide margin, prompting a raised full-year outlook.
Business Model & Revenue Drivers
A Coffeehouse It Mostly Runs Itself
Cafes that Starbucks owns and staffs generate 82.7% of revenue ($30.7B in FY2025), far more than the franchise-heavy model common in fast food; licensed stores and Channel Development (CPG, foodservice, the Nestlé alliance) make up the rest.
Because Starbucks owns those stores, every improvement it makes (faster service, new drinks, a better app) lands on its own books rather than a franchisee's. As traffic returns, the full store margin returns with it.
Competitive Moat
Why the Brand Is Hard to Replicate
The harder thing to copy is the habit Starbucks created: premium coffee as a daily ritual. Beverages are 60.5% of revenue in the latest filings, customized drinks bought several times a week at prices plain coffee could not command.
Scale reinforces it over time. Starbucks Rewards ties the habit to an app that remembers the order and the payment, keeping the brand a tap away.
Operating Strengths
Three Structural Advantages
- 35.8M U.S. 90-day active Rewards members. Loyalty engagement keeps climbing, reinforcing the daily ritual behind repeat visits and app orders.
- 22,993 international stores. More stores now operate outside North America than inside it, evidence the cafe format travels.
- $27.4B North America revenue. The home market supplies 73.5% of revenue, funding renovations and overseas growth.
Growth Catalysts
Where the Next Dollar Comes From
The turnaround is no longer early-innings. Q3 FY2026 (ended June 28) marked the fourth straight quarter of positive global comparable sales, up 7.9% on both traffic (+4.2%) and ticket (+3.5%), beating consensus on revenue, adjusted EPS, and margin by wide margins. Adjusted operating margin expanded 430 bps year over year to 14.4%, the second straight quarter of margin gains.
Management raised full-year guidance across the board: adjusted EPS to $2.55–$2.65, U.S. comp sales to at least 6%, and operating margin to above 11%. The $2B cost-savings plan is tracking on schedule through FY2028, and the company repaid $1.8B of debt in the quarter alone.
- Menu innovation. Refreshers posted double-digit U.S. growth and food attach rates improved; the pipeline includes new Frappuccino platforms into Q4.
- Store uplifts. The company is on track for at least 1,500 coffeehouse renovations by fiscal year-end, with revamped stores showing faster transaction growth.
- Asset-light international. Converting China to a licensed joint venture with Boyu Capital lowers future capital needs and should improve returns on invested capital.
Historical Context
Revenue Kept Climbing Through the Reset
Revenue rose every year from FY2022 through FY2025 and the business stayed solidly profitable throughout the reset, giving the turnaround a healthy base to build on. FY2026 and FY2027 figures shown are consensus estimates.
- +15% revenue growth, FY22 - FY25: $32.3B → $37.2B
- FY24 - FY25 operating margin: 15% → 7.8%
- FY24 - FY25 net margin: 10.4% → 5.2%
Valuation & Investment Thesis
What the Multiple Is Pricing
Starbucks trades near 35× forward earnings, or ~33× on FY2027 consensus ($3.17 EPS) — a premium to franchised peers like McDonald's (20×) and Yum! (22×). The stock has run from a $78.46 trough last October to $105.12, up 34%, and 18 of 40 covering analysts rate it Buy with a consensus target of $110.62.
The premium increasingly prices margin recovery already arriving, not just hoped for: adjusted operating margin has expanded for two straight quarters toward its historical mid-teens range.
Key Risks
What Could Change the Story
- Durability of traffic, since some of the 4.2% U.S. transaction growth reflects easy comparisons against a weak prior year rather than structural gains.
- China opacity, now that the retail business has been deconsolidated into a licensed joint venture with Boyu Capital; only equity earnings ($53M in Q3) are disclosed for the second-largest Starbucks market (8,011 stores).
- Commodity costs, with coffee prices still a margin swing factor even as recent tariff refunds provided a tailwind.
- Leverage, with net debt of $18.8B and negative book equity still limiting financial flexibility, despite $1.8B of debt repaid this quarter.
- Consumer spending and competition, where a discretionary slowdown or share loss to Dutch Bros, CAVA, and independent cafes could slow traffic.
What This Means For You
The Index Angle, in Plain Terms
In Your Index Fund — If you hold a fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index®, you already own this.
- Index composition follows transparent eligibility criteria, and SBUX is a current constituent at ~0.55% index weight: about 55 cents of every $100 tracking the index sits in Starbucks.
- It's the cup you already buy on the way to work, and the loyalty app that remembers your order.
- Because Starbucks runs most of its own stores, your fund feels the company's full swing in profit, the strong years and the slow ones.
Decoding the Jargon
Two terms doing the heavy lifting in this issue.
- Comparable store sales (comps). Sales growth from stores open at least a year, which strips out new openings. Rising comps come from existing cafes selling more, rather than from new store openings.
- Operating margin. The share of revenue left after the cost of running the stores. It fell to 7.8% in FY2025, and has since expanded to 14.4% (adjusted) in Q3 FY2026, evidence the recovery is arriving faster than expected.
Bottom Line
If you own a Nasdaq-100® fund, you already own Starbucks, and its rebound is no longer just a plan. Sales and profits are growing again, the kind of result the turnaround was built to deliver.
About the Series
The Nasdaq-100® is a globally recognized index of 100 of the most innovative large cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. The Inside the Index series profiles one constituent each issue, from software to soft drinks and computer chips to potato chips, exploring what makes each business distinctive and the metrics investors should know.
Sources
NASDAQ GLOBAL INDEXES, STARBUCKS FY2025 10-K AND Q3 FY2026 RESULTS, BLOOMBERG. DATA AS OF 7/31/2026.
Disclaimer
Nasdaq®, Nasdaq-100®, Nasdaq-100 Index®, Nasdaq Stock Market®, and NDX® are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing.
Information set forth contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Nasdaq cautions readers that any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and that actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as "will," "believe" and other words and terms of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to listing on Nasdaq. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties or other factors beyond Nasdaq's control. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Nasdaq's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q which are available on Nasdaq's investor relations website at http://ir.nasdaq.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Nasdaq undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.
© 2026. Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Latest Articles
Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Starbucks (SBUX)
VOL 1 • ISSUE 08 • AUGUST 2026
Starbucks runs most of its stores itself. So when it reinvents the experience, the upside lands on its own books.
SBUX • Consumer Discretionary • Index Constituent
This Issue — SBUX
Starbucks, a current Nasdaq-100® constituent at ~0.55% index weight, is one of the world's largest coffeehouse networks, and it operates most of its stores itself rather than franchising. The "Back to Starbucks" turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol has now delivered four straight quarters of positive global comparable sales, and Q3 FY2026 results beat consensus on revenue, margin and profit by a wide margin, prompting a raised full-year outlook.
Key Figures
Business Model & Revenue Drivers
A Coffeehouse It Mostly Runs Itself
Cafes that Starbucks owns and staffs generate 82.7% of revenue ($30.7B in FY2025), far more than the franchise-heavy model common in fast food; licensed stores and Channel Development (CPG, foodservice, the Nestlé alliance) make up the rest.
Because Starbucks owns those stores, every improvement it makes (faster service, new drinks, a better app) lands on its own books rather than a franchisee's. As traffic returns, the full store margin returns with it.
Competitive Moat
Why the Brand Is Hard to Replicate
The harder thing to copy is the habit Starbucks created: premium coffee as a daily ritual. Beverages are 60.5% of revenue in the latest filings, customized drinks bought several times a week at prices plain coffee could not command.
Scale reinforces it over time. Starbucks Rewards ties the habit to an app that remembers the order and the payment, keeping the brand a tap away.
Operating Strengths
Three Structural Advantages
1. 35.8M U.S. 90-day active Rewards members. Loyalty engagement keeps climbing, reinforcing the daily ritual behind repeat visits and app orders.
2. 22,993 international stores. More stores now operate outside North America than inside it, evidence the cafe format travels.
3. $27.4B North America revenue. The home market supplies 73.5% of revenue, funding renovations and overseas growth.
Growth Catalysts
What Grows the Business Next
The turnaround is no longer early-innings. Q3 FY2026 (ended June 28) marked the fourth straight quarter of positive global comparable sales, up 7.9% on both traffic (+4.2%) and ticket (+3.5%), beating consensus on revenue, adjusted EPS, and margin by wide margins. Adjusted operating margin expanded 430 bps year over year to 14.4%, the second straight quarter of margin gains.
Management raised full-year guidance across the board: adjusted EPS to $2.55–$2.65, U.S. comp sales to at least 6%, and operating margin to above 11%. The $2B cost-savings plan is tracking on schedule through FY2028, and the company repaid $1.8B of debt in the quarter alone.
• Menu innovation. Refreshers posted double-digit U.S. growth and food attach rates improved; the pipeline includes new Frappuccino platforms into Q4.
• Store uplifts. The company is on track for at least 1,500 coffeehouse renovations by fiscal year-end, with revamped stores showing faster transaction growth.
• Asset-light international. Converting China to a licensed joint venture with Boyu Capital lowers future capital needs and should improve returns on invested capital.
Historical Context
Revenue Kept Climbing Through the Reset
Valuation & Investment Thesis
What the Multiple Is Pricing
Starbucks trades near 35× forward earnings, or ~33× on FY2027 consensus ($3.17 EPS) — a premium to franchised peers like McDonald's (20×) and Yum! (22×). The stock has run from a $78.46 trough last October to $105.12, up 34%, and 18 of 40 covering analysts rate it Buy with a consensus target of $110.62.
The premium increasingly prices margin recovery already arriving, not just hoped for: adjusted operating margin has expanded for two straight quarters toward its historical mid-teens range.
Key Risks
What Could Change the Story
• Durability of traffic, since some of the 4.2% U.S. transaction growth reflects easy comparisons against a weak prior year rather than structural gains.
• China opacity, now that the retail business has been deconsolidated into a licensed joint venture with Boyu Capital; only equity earnings ($53M in Q3) are disclosed for the second-largest Starbucks market (8,011 stores).
• Commodity costs, with coffee prices still a margin swing factor even as recent tariff refunds provided a tailwind.
• Leverage, with net debt of $18.8B and negative book equity still limiting financial flexibility, despite $1.8B of debt repaid this quarter.
• Consumer spending and competition, where a discretionary slowdown or share loss to Dutch Bros, CAVA, and independent cafes could slow traffic.
What This Means For You
The Index Angle, in Plain Terms
In Your Index Fund — If you hold a fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index®, you already own this.
• Index composition follows transparent eligibility criteria, and SBUX is a current constituent at ~0.55% index weight: about 55 cents of every $100 tracking the index sits in Starbucks.
• It's the cup you already buy on the way to work, and the loyalty app that remembers your order.
• Because Starbucks runs most of its own stores, your fund feels the company's full swing in profit, the strong years and the slow ones.
Decoding the Jargon
Two terms doing the heavy lifting in this issue.
• Comparable store sales (comps). Sales growth from stores open at least a year, which strips out new openings. Rising comps come from existing cafes selling more, rather than from new store openings.
• Operating margin. The share of revenue left after the cost of running the stores. It fell to 7.8% in FY2025, and has since expanded to 14.4% (adjusted) in Q3 FY2026, evidence the recovery is arriving faster than expected.
Bottom Line
If you own a Nasdaq-100® fund, you already own Starbucks, and its rebound is no longer just a plan. Sales and profits are growing again, the kind of result the turnaround was built to deliver.
About the Series
The Nasdaq-100® is a globally recognized index of 100 of the most innovative large cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. The Inside the Index series profiles one constituent each issue, from software to soft drinks and computer chips to potato chips, exploring what makes each business distinctive and the metrics investors should know.
Sources
NASDAQ GLOBAL INDEXES, STARBUCKS FY2025 10-K AND Q3 FY2026 RESULTS, BLOOMBERG. DATA AS OF 7/31/2026.
Disclaimer
Nasdaq®, Nasdaq-100®, Nasdaq-100 Index®, Nasdaq Stock Market®, and NDX® are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing.
Information set forth contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Nasdaq cautions readers that any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and that actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as "will," "believe" and other words and terms of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to listing on Nasdaq. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties or other factors beyond Nasdaq's control. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Nasdaq's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q which are available on Nasdaq's investor relations website at http://ir.nasdaq.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Nasdaq undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.
© 2026. Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved.