Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Key Figures
- $955m free cash flow (FY2025)
- ~260 service centers (FY2025)
- 70.1% operating ratio (Q2 2026)
- ~28.9× forward P/E (9/15/2026)
- 0.64% dividend yield (9/15/2026)
VOL 1 • ISSUE 22 • OCTOBER 2026
Old Dominion Freight Line. Every year since FY2020, Old Dominion has collected more for each 100 pounds of freight it hauls.
ODFL • Industrials • Index Constituent
This Issue — ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, a current Nasdaq-100® constituent at ~0.17% index weight, hauls freight too small to fill a truck, called less-than-truckload or LTL freight, so pallets from several different customers ride in the same trailer. It runs its own service centers, its own trucks and its own drivers across the continental United States, and more than 97% of revenue comes from that single line of work (per company disclosures). What shippers buy is on-time, damage-free delivery.
Business Model & Revenue Drivers
One Trailer, Many Customers
A pallet of paint heading to a hardware store is too big for a parcel service and too small to fill a trailer. Old Dominion takes that pallet, combines it with freight from other shippers, and runs the load through its own network of about 260 service centers and 20,081 employees (per company disclosures). General commodities move that way: consumer goods, textiles, capital goods.
The money is made on price per unit of weight, measured as revenue per hundredweight (revenue for every 100 pounds carried). That figure has risen in every year since FY2020, from $22.62 to $33.31 in FY2025, while average weight per shipment fell from 1,614 to 1,477 pounds as lighter, higher-yielding freight filled the trailers (per company disclosures).
REVENUE PER HUNDRED POUNDS OF FREIGHT (FY2020 VS FY2025)
- FY2025: $33.31
- FY2020: $22.62
Competitive Moat
Service Scores Shippers Pay For
Old Dominion was ranked the top national LTL carrier in the Mastio 2025 shipper survey, with a Net Promoter Score (a survey measure of how likely customers are to recommend a carrier) of 78%, against 49% for XPO and 44% for Saia (per the Mastio 2025 survey, cited in Bloomberg research). Bloomberg research estimates it is the second-largest U.S. LTL carrier by revenue, with roughly 10–12% of industry revenue as of September 2026.
The network behind those scores was paid for in the last cycle. Capital spending ran $550M to $775M a year from FY2021 through FY2024, which left more than 30% spare capacity. According to company disclosures and Bloomberg research, a company-owned network with that much spare capacity may create barriers to entry for competitors.
SHIPPER NET PROMOTER SCORE (MASTIO 2025 SURVEY)
- OLD DOMINION: 78%
- XPO: 49%
Operating Strengths
Three Structural Advantages
- 21.2% return on invested capital (FY2025). Cash returns held up through the softest year of the freight cycle, staying ahead of the company's cost of capital after a 33.1% peak in FY2022 (per company filings and Bloomberg research).
- $141m total debt (FY2025). Debt has fallen every year since FY2020, leaving cash and debt close to level. The company still bought back $727M of stock in 2025 (per company filings).
- ~30% dividend per share growth (FY2020–FY2025, annualized). The dividend rose from $0.30 to $1.12 per share across five years, with FY2026 tracking at about $1.12 (per company filings and guidance).
Growth Catalysts
A Network Built Ahead of the Freight
Pricing is the lever the company controls, and it has been pulling it. A general rate increase of 4.9% took effect on November 3, 2025, and pricing excluding fuel surcharges is expected to rise by mid-single digits across 2026 (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research estimates). Revenue per day in August 2026 was 12.4% higher than August 2025, ahead of the 10% year-over-year growth reported in Q2 2026. In that quarter the operating ratio improved 450 basis points from a year earlier to 70.1%, and earnings per share rose 32% to $1.68 (per company disclosures).
- Volume into empty capacity. More than 30% spare capacity means additional freight can be absorbed without adding service centers, which represents upside to margins if industrial demand strengthens (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research)
- Earnings recovery expected. Consensus expects earnings per share of $5.82 in FY2026 and $6.64 in FY2027, against $4.86 in FY2025 (Bloomberg consensus estimates)
- Share gains in an upcycle. The company has historically gained share when freight tightens, a pattern that followed the 2008–09 recession and the 2023 bankruptcy of rival carrier Yellow, and it reports more inquiries when competitors miss service commitments (per company disclosures)
Historical Context
FY2020–FY2025 Revenue per Hundredweight
+47% REVENUE PER HUNDRED POUNDS, FY2020–FY2025
- FY20: $22.62
- FY21: $25.59
- FY22: $30.24 — FREIGHT PEAK
- FY23: $31.31 — YELLOW EXITS
- FY24: $32.05
- FY25: $33.31
SOURCE: OLD DOMINION FILINGS; REVENUE PER HUNDREDWEIGHT AS REPORTED FOR EACH FISCAL YEAR
Revenue reached a peak of $6.26B in FY2022 during the post-pandemic freight boom, when the operating ratio hit 70.6%. Freight demand turned in the second half of that year, and shipments per workday fell from 51,340 in FY2022 to 43,763 in FY2025. Price per hundred pounds kept climbing through the whole stretch. Free cash flow set a record at $955M in FY2025, the softest revenue year of the cycle (per company filings).
70.6% → 75.2% OPERATING RATIO (FY2022 → FY2025)
Cycle
51,340 → 43,763 SHIPMENTS PER WORKDAY (FY2022 → FY2025)
-15%
$663M → $955M FREE CASH FLOW (FY2021 → FY2025)
+44%
Shipments fell about 15% after the freight downturn began, and revenue per shipment held flat. Industry revenue fell about 23%.
Valuation & Investment Thesis
Reading the Premium Multiple
Old Dominion trades at ~28.9× forward earnings and ~20.5× EV/EBITDA as of 9/15/2026, a premium to the broader transportation group (per Bloomberg research). For investors evaluating the company, the factors in view include a 70.1% operating ratio in Q2 2026, $141M of total debt, and consensus earnings estimates of $6.64 per share for FY2027 (per company filings and Bloomberg consensus estimates).
At a forward earnings multiple of approximately 28.9×, investors may consider whether the expected recovery in freight volumes supports current valuation levels.
Key Risks
What Could Change the Story
- Freight cycle timing, since a recovery depends on industrial production improving and truckload capacity tightening, and a delay would extend pressure on the operating ratio
- Tariff and trade policy, which could reduce manufacturing activity; direct cross-border exposure is under 5%, but indirect demand effects could be material
- Peer capacity added since 2023, which may limit share gains in the next upcycle relative to past patterns (per Bloomberg research)
- A tight driver market, which could constrain the ability to grow the fleet and carry incremental volume in an upcycle
- A premium multiple that leaves limited room for a delayed freight recovery (per Bloomberg research)
What This Means For You
The Index Angle, in Plain Terms
In Your Index Fund — If you hold a fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index®, you already own this.
- Index composition follows transparent eligibility criteria, and ODFL is a current constituent at ~0.17% index weight: roughly 17 cents of every $100 tracking the Nasdaq-100 sits in Old Dominion
- The pallets that restock a hardware store or a factory floor move this way, so this holding tracks the goods economy rather than software spending
- Freight demand is influenced by industrial production and the domestic economy (per Bloomberg research)
Decoding the Jargon
Two terms doing the heavy lifting in this issue.
- Operating ratio. Costs as a share of revenue. Q2 2026's 70.1% left ~30 cents per dollar as operating income ($465M on $1.55B, per company filings)
- Revenue per hundredweight (yield). What the carrier collects for every 100 pounds it moves. At $33.31 in FY2025, it has risen every year since FY2020
Bottom Line
Inside the Nasdaq-100®, Old Dominion is built around service quality. Its spare capacity could absorb a freight recovery.
About the Series
The Nasdaq-100® is a globally recognized index of 100 of the most innovative large cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. The Inside the Index series profiles one constituent each issue, from software to soft drinks and computer chips to potato chips, exploring what makes each business distinctive and the metrics investors should know.
Sources
NASDAQ GLOBAL INDEXES. OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC. SEC FILINGS VIA SEC EDGAR: FY2025 FORM 10-K, Q2 2026 FORM 10-Q; OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INVESTOR RELATIONS. REVENUE, OPERATING RATIO, REVENUE PER HUNDREDWEIGHT, SHIPMENT AND TONNAGE COUNTS, SERVICE CENTER COUNT, EMPLOYEES, CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, FREE CASH FLOW, DEBT, DIVIDENDS, SHARE REPURCHASES, THE NOVEMBER 2025 GENERAL RATE INCREASE, Q2 2026 RESULTS AND AUGUST 2026 OPERATING METRICS PER OLD DOMINION COMPANY DISCLOSURES. MARKET SHARE, SPARE CAPACITY, VALUATION MULTIPLES AND FORWARD ESTIMATES PER BLOOMBERG RESEARCH AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. SERVICE-QUALITY SURVEY RESULTS PER MASTIO & COMPANY 2025 NATIONAL LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD CARRIER SURVEY, AND INDUSTRY REVENUE DATA PER AMERICAN TRUCKING ASSOCIATIONS, BOTH VIA BLOOMBERG RESEARCH. DATA AS OF 9/15/2026.
Disclaimer
Nasdaq®, Nasdaq-100®, Nasdaq-100 Index®, Nasdaq Stock Market®, and NDX® are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing.
Information set forth contains forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Nasdaq cautions readers that any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and that actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as "will," "believe" and other words and terms of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to listing on Nasdaq. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties or other factors beyond Nasdaq's control. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Nasdaq's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q which are available on Nasdaq's investor relations website at http://ir.nasdaq.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Nasdaq undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.
© 2026. Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved.