Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Mondelez International (MDLZ)
Key Figures
- $39.8B revenue (12 months to June 2026)
- 150+ countries sold in
- $3.2B free cash flow (FY2025)
- ~19.5× forward P/E (8/27/2026)
- 3.18% dividend yield (8/27/2026)
VOL 1 • ISSUE 21 • OCTOBER 2026
Most people picture Mondelez as a chocolate company. Biscuits are the bigger half, led by Oreo.
MDLZ • Consumer Staples • Index Constituent
This Issue — MDLZ
Mondelez, a current Nasdaq-100® constituent at ~0.36% index weight, makes and sells packaged snacks — Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, Ritz, belVita, Toblerone, Trident and Biscoff — in more than 150 countries (per company disclosures). It manufactures and distributes regionally and prices in local currency, so roughly three quarters of revenue comes from outside North America and its largest single region is Europe. Chocolate is the half the commodity market moves; biscuits are the half that carries the volume.
Business Model & Revenue Drivers
Two Halves of the Snack Aisle
Mondelez sells packaged snacks under brands people buy without thinking: Oreo, Ritz and belVita in biscuits, Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone in chocolate, Trident in gum. Biscuits are the largest category at $18.8B of revenue in the twelve months to June 2026, ahead of chocolate at $13.2B (per company disclosures). It is one of the largest consumer staples companies in the world by revenue (per Bloomberg research), with about 91,000 employees.
The economics run on local supply. Mondelez bakes, molds and distributes inside the regions it sells in, and prices in local currency, which is why Europe rather than the United States is its biggest market. Cocoa moves the chocolate half hard, as FY2025 showed. Biscuit flour and packaging do not move the same way, so the two halves rarely have a bad year together.
REVENUE BY CATEGORY (12 MONTHS TO JUNE 2026)
BISCUITS $18.8B
CHOCOLATE $13.2B
Competitive Moat
Shelf Space Bought Country by Country
A snack brand earns its place at the checkout one market at a time. Mondelez has that place in more than 150 countries, with local plants, local recipes and delivery routes into small independent shops as well as large grocers (per company disclosures). According to company disclosures and Bloomberg research, that geographic footprint and distribution network may create barriers to entry for competitors, since the same position takes decades of distribution and brand spending in each market rather than one global campaign.
Scale in one region funds the next. Europe alone generated $15.3B of revenue in the twelve months to June 2026, more than North America’s $10.8B, and that base pays for the distribution build-out in India, Brazil, China and Southeast Asia (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research).
TWO LARGEST REGIONS BY REVENUE (12 MONTHS TO JUNE 2026)
EUROPE $15.3B
NORTH AMERICA $10.8B
Operating Strengths
Three Structural Advantages
- ~34% EMERGING MARKETS SHARE OF REVENUE (12 MONTHS TO JUNE 2026).
Latin America and the Asia, Middle East and Africa region together supply about a third of sales, and grew organically +4.4% year over year in Q2 2026 (per company disclosures). - ~46% DIVIDEND PER SHARE GROWTH (FY2021–FY2025)
The dividend rose from $1.33 to $1.94 per share across five years, while the share count fell from 1,395M to 1,290M (per company filings). - 21.6% PEAK EBITDA MARGIN (FY2024)
The margin the business earned before record cocoa costs, and the level a recovery in cocoa would work back toward (per company filings).
Growth Catalysts
Where the Next Packs Get Sold
Emerging markets are the company’s primary structural growth engine (per company disclosures). Organic sales there grew +4.4% year over year in Q2 2026 on both pricing and volume, with distribution still being extended across India, Brazil, China and Southeast Asia (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research). The company targets 3–5% top-line growth over the medium term, and consensus expects adjusted earnings per share of $3.36 in FY2027 (company guidance and Bloomberg consensus estimates).
- Snacks built for smaller appetites. With GLP-1 weight-loss drugs estimated to carry a 2–3% volume drag for the category, Mondelez is developing higher-protein and high-fiber products and smaller pack sizes for people eating less at a sitting (per company disclosures and Bloomberg research estimates)
- Health and wellness portfolio. Grenade and Clif Bar brought protein bars in house, healthier variants of existing brands are in development, and artificial colors are expected to be phased out by the end of FY2027 (per company disclosures)
- North America turning. Volume and mix in North America turned positive in Q2 2026 for the first time in six quarters, helped by promotional execution and channel expansion (per company disclosures)
Historical Context
FY2021 – FY2026E Revenue Trajectory
+34% REVENUE GROWTH, FY2021–FY2025
FY21 $28.7B
FY22 $31.5B
FY23 $36.0B
FY24 $36.4B
FY25 $38.5B COCOA PEAK
FY26E $40.1B GUIDE RAISED
SOURCE MONDELEZ FILINGS; FY2026E PER COMPANY GUIDANCE AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS ESTIMATES
Revenue grew in each of the five years to FY2025, at roughly an 8% compound annual rate, carried largely by pricing taken during the commodity inflation of that period. FY2025 was the hardest year of the cycle: record cocoa prices pushed gross margin from 37.8% down to 32.0% and adjusted earnings per share from $3.36 to $2.92.
FREE CASH FLOW (FY2021–FY2025)
$3.0B – $3.6B every year 5 yrs
GROSS MARGIN (FY2024 → FY2025)
37.8% → 32.0% Cocoa
SHARES OUTSTANDING (FY2021–FY2025)
1,395M → 1,290M -7.5%
Cash flow stayed in the same narrow range through a record cocoa market. $3.0 to $3.6 billion, every year for five years.
Valuation & Investment Thesis
Priced Below Its Own Recent Average
Mondelez trades at ~19.5× forward earnings and ~17.2× EV/EBITDA as of 8/27/2026, a discount to its own five-year average forward multiple (per Bloomberg research). The buyer at that price gets a dividend yielding 3.18%, free cash flow the company guides to about $3B for FY2026, and a recovery in earnings that consensus expects to reach $3.36 per share in FY2027 (company guidance and Bloomberg consensus estimates).
What the forward multiple prices is margin recovery, and that recovery depends on cocoa costs easing more than on selling more packs.
Key Risks
What Could Change the Story
- Cocoa cost re-acceleration, with chocolate at ~33% of revenue, would pressure FY2026 and FY2027 estimates
- European volume elasticity, since Europe is 39% of revenue and shoppers there have responded sharply to chocolate price increases
- A cautious North American consumer buying the same baskets at higher prices and taking home fewer units
- GLP-1 adoption and healthier diets, estimated to represent a 2–3% volume drag on the category (per Bloomberg research estimates)
- Currency, with about 73% of revenue earned outside North America, and net debt of $20.0B at roughly 3.1× EBITDA (FY2025)
What This Means For You
The Index Angle, in Plain Terms
In Your Index Fund — If you hold a fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index®, you already own this.
- Index composition follows transparent eligibility criteria, and MDLZ is a current constituent at ~0.36% index weight: roughly 36 cents of every $100 tracking the Nasdaq-100 sits in Mondelez
- It is the Oreo in the lunchbox and the Cadbury bar at the till, sold in more than 150 countries, so most of what you own here is bought outside the United States
- Chocolate is about a third of revenue, which is why a bad cocoa harvest shows up in this holding and a shortage of cookies does not
Decoding the Jargon
Two terms doing the heavy lifting in this issue.
- Organic revenue growth. Sales growth stripped of currency moves and acquisitions. Mondelez grew +2.2% organically in Q2 2026, so the underlying business, not the exchange rate, did the work
- Forward P/E (price to expected earnings). At ~19.5×, the market pays about $19.50 today for each $1 of earnings expected over the next twelve months, below what it has paid on average over the past five years
Bottom Line
Inside the Nasdaq-100®, Mondelez is the constituent whose growth is counted in packs sold across more than 150 countries. Cocoa sets the margin. The shelf sets everything else.
About the Series
The Nasdaq-100® is a globally recognized index of 100 of the most innovative large cap companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market®. The Inside the Index series profiles one constituent each issue, from software to soft drinks and computer chips to potato chips, exploring what makes each business distinctive and the metrics investors should know.
Sources
NASDAQ GLOBAL INDEXES. MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC. SEC FILINGS VIA SEC EDGAR: FY2025 FORM 10-K, Q2 2026 FORM 10-Q; MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR RELATIONS FILINGS ARCHIVE. REVENUE BY CATEGORY AND REGION, BRAND PORTFOLIO, MARGINS, FREE CASH FLOW, DIVIDENDS, SHARE COUNT, NET DEBT, Q2 2026 RESULTS AND FY2026 GUIDANCE PER MONDELEZ COMPANY DISCLOSURES. CATEGORY SCALE, INDUSTRY STRUCTURE, FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE FORWARD MULTIPLE, ADJUSTED BETA, GLP-1 VOLUME-DRAG ESTIMATES AND FORWARD ESTIMATES PER BLOOMBERG RESEARCH AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. DATA AS OF 8/27/2026.
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