Corn Rallies through Midweek
The help of an export sale announcement kept corn futures 4 ½ to 7 ½ cents higher on Wednesday. Dec prices were 4 ½ cents off their high for the finish. Dec ’24 prices remain at a 38 cent premium (carry) to spot Dec.
USDA reported 270k MT of corn was sold to Mexico via a private export sale. Estimates ahead of tomorrow's weekly report range from 600k MT and 1.2 MMT sold. New crop export sales ideas top out at 50k MT for the week that ended 11/2.
This week’s EIA data will be included in next week’s report, given the scheduled maintenance break and system upgrade.
The ERS released their Baseline Projections, expecting the corn area to work back toward last season’s level at 88m planted acres. Trendline yield estimates work to 199 bpa by 2033/34. The majority of the extra corn (74%) is set in carryout, climbing to 3 bbu, while 38% is headed for export and 4% for ethanol. The farm price is projected to work back lower to $4.30 over the next decade.
USDA’s Ag Attache reduced their estimate for Brazil’s corn production by 5 MMT to 130 MMT, citing reduced profitability and therefore reduced acreage. USDA’s official estimate of 129 MMT for Brazilian corn will be updated Thursday but is not required to follow the attaché’s figures.
Dec 23 Corn is at $4.76, up 7 1/2 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $4.50 5/8, up 7 3/4 cents,
Mar 24 Corn is at $4.90, up 6 1/2 cents,
May 24 Corn is at $4.99 1/4, up 6 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
