Brent Nears $100: ETFs Likely to Win/Lose
Oil prices climbed on Sept. 9, as rising U.S.-Iran tensions renewed fears of further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian crude tankers Tuesday after an attempted attack on an American warship.
The move has added to concerns about the conflict’s impact on oil shipments. The escalation has also raised fears that attacks on shipping could intensify and disrupt regional oil exports.
Brent Could Top $120?
Goldman Sachs sees a growing risk of oil prices breaking above $120 a barrel if Persian Gulf exports fail to recover, as quoted on CNBC. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the scenario is “definitely plausible” as shipping attacks broaden.
Goldman’s base case still assumes that exports will gradually recover as producers find alternative shipping routes and add pipeline capacity. However, the latest escalation makes a more bullish oil-price scenario increasingly likely.
Conflict Enters a New Phase
U.S.-Iran military action had paused for about a month as Washington focused on economic pressure against Tehran. Strikes resumed toward the end of last month, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tight global oil market.
ETFs to Win
Leveraged Oil & Energy ETFs to Gain
Despite headwinds such as slower demand growth, investors can play leveraged oil and energy-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X Shares ERX, Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares GUSH, ProShares Ultra Energy DIG and MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN OILU to earn some quick gains now.
Small-Caps to Gain?
The U.S. economy is in decent shape. Small-cap stocks are mainly domestically focused and are less exposed to geopolitics.
Moreover, as the world’s largest oil producer, the United States is somewhat protected from global supply shocks, though not entirely immune, according to Deutsche Bank, per CNN, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Note that the S&P 500-based ETF State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has added about 0.5% over the past five days (as of Sept. 8, 2026) while iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM is up 0.9%.
Norway to Gain?
The Norges Bank kept its policy rate steady at 4.25% in August, in line with market expectations, as inflation slowed more than anticipated over the summer. High oil prices and robust commodity demand supported heavyweights in the energy space.
Note that Norway is a major energy-exporting country. It is one of Europe’s largest suppliers of natural gas and a key crude oil exporter. Global X MSCI Norway ETF NORW should thus gain ahead.
ETFs to Lose
Retail Stocks to Remain Under Pressure
Rising energy prices do not bode well for retailers as consumers’ wallets get squeezed from higher outlays at gas stations. In fact, not only oil but also overall inflation will be rising, hurting consumers’ buying power. Thus, SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT will lose in a rising oil price environment.
India to Face Pressure?
India is almost entirely dependent on imports to back its oil needs. An oil price rise could thus be a major headwind to India investing, putting iShares India 50 ETF INDY in focus. The fund has lost about 1.5% over the past week.
Airlines: Another Tough Spot
The airline sector performs better in a falling crude scenario, as energy costs form a major portion of the overall cost of this sector. Hence, the airlines ETF, U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS, is likely to underperform.
Gold Mining to See Higher Costs?
Gold mining is heavily dependent on fuel, with 15-20% of all-in operating costs (per goldmoney.com) directly tied to energy (diesel for heavy equipment, electricity). The same source also highlights that beyond the diesel and electricity required to extract and process the metal, energy is needed to ventilate and cool underground mines as well.
So, a sharp oil rally, like the one currently underway, is a key negative for miners’ profitability. VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX should thus be closely watched.
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