Bitcoin ETF Saga: Fact vs. Fiction
Fact: The US Securities and Exchange Commission Will Not Appeal the Grayscale (GBTC) ETF Ruling
A Bitcoin Trust is a financial vehicle where investors pool their funds to buy and hold Bitcoin. Bitcoin Trusts operate like a traditional investment and are traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) stock exchange. Bitcoin Trusts indirectly own Bitcoin through the trust’s holdings.
Conversely, a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and is traded on stock exchanges, just like a stock. ETF investors buy shares of the fund, which in turn owns Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are more optimal because they directly own Bitcoin, and offer investors more liquidity and flexibility than Bitcoin Trusts.
Grayscale runs the world’s largest Bitcoin Trust. However, Grayscale has been working to clear the “red tape” of switching from a Bitcoin Trust to an ETF for the past two years. Because the SEC did not act before the Friday deadline, the SEC will not appeal an August court loss over Grayscale’s ETF conversion application. In a statement to CoinDesk, a Grayscale spokeswoman said: “The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.”
Fiction: The SEC Approved Blackrock’s (BLK) Bitcoin ETF
Early Monday morning, CoinTelegraph, one of crypto’s most followed news sites, tweeted news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved Blackrock’s Ishares spot Bitcoin ETF. As a result, Bitcoin spiked to two-month highs and neared the psychologically important $30,000 level before reversing. However, there was one major problem – the tweet was a hoax. A few hours after sending Bitcoin soaring, CoinTelegraph retracted its tweet and said it was investigating why false news was spread. Meanwhile, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, confirmed that the headline was false and said the Bitcoin application is still under review by the SEC.
Image Source: TradingView
Fact: Blackrock’s ETF Approval is a Matter of “When”, Not “If”
The SEC is reeling from several crypto-related court losses in the US. While a Blackrock ETF is not a 100% lock, it’s pretty close. History shows that Blackrock’s ETF approval-to-loss ratio is more than 500-to-1. I like those odds.
Winners
Clearly, the market wants a Bitcoin ETF. Conspicuously, even though the Blackrock news turned out to be false (or premature), Bitcoin rose strongly on heavy turnover Monday – a sign of significant demand. GBTC was the day’s big winner and increased more than 8.5% - more than Bitcoin rose.
Image Source: TradingView
Should ETFs start to be approved in the coming months, winners include Coinbase (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), andRiot Platforms (RIOT). COIN will benefit because it is the custodian exchange for nearly every Bitcoin ETF. MSTR will benefit because of its massive Bitcoin holdings. RIOT, a Bitcoin miner, will benefit from further adoption.
Bottom Line
A flurry of headlines sparked the price of Bitcoin on Monday. If a Bitcoin ETF is approved, it would be massively bullish. However, what headlines are fact and which are fiction?
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