Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ADP) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.6x Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Automatic Data Processing as its earnings have been rising slower than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will improve markedly. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Is There Enough Growth For Automatic Data Processing?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Automatic Data Processing's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 9.8% gain to the company's bottom line. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 42% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.8% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be similar to the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
With this information, we find it interesting that Automatic Data Processing is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
The Final Word
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Automatic Data Processing's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Automatic Data Processing with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a P/E ratio below 20x).
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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