ModEx Cat Risk Models

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By delivering a range of solutions on single platform, we are bringing new levels of efficiency and cost-effectiveness to the (re)insurance industry.

Ambiental Risk logo

Provider: Ambiental

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Australia FloodCat: The Ambiental Australia flood model (FloodCat) is a probabilistic river flood loss model covering the entirety of Australia. The model considers stochastic events and historic event footprints, vulnerability functions and exposure to calculate estimated losses from fluvial flooding at a postcode and property level. It is the first and most detailed property level flood model for Australia providing (re)insurers with an unprecedented view of risk. Australia Flood Available
Learn more at Ambiental's website
ARA logo

Provider: ARA

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
HurLoss: ARA's "HurLoss" US hurricane model provides unparalleled insight into the potential impact of a hurricane before it occurs, providing a deep understanding of the hurricane peril which enables clients to effectively manage the total cost of risk. USA Hurricane Available
See ARA Case Study
man using phone with laptop at desk

Provider: CATRisk Solutions

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Middle East and Africa Earthquake: CATRisk Solution’s Middle East and Africa earthquake model covers Algeria, Burundi, Egypt, Kenya, Libya, Namibia, Morocco, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Uganda in Africa, and Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen in the Middle East. Middle East and Africa Earthquake Available
COMBUS logo

Provider: COMBUS

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Australia Bushfire: The bushfire peril model covers fires in grassland, scrub or forest that cover wide areas and cause damage and loss to the environment and property. The event occurrence model is based on parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed and the probability of building loss takes into account type of vegetation as well as physical distance. Australia Bushfire Available
Australia Low Pressure System: The low pressure system model covers five different categories of Australian weather which have similar event features and mixes of damage and loss from sub-perils. The five weather types are East Coast Lows, Eastern Low Pressure Troughs, West Coast Troughs, Southern Ocean Lows and Monsoonal Low Pressure Troughs. Australia Low pressure system Available
Australia Severe Convective Storm: The severe convective storm model covers thunderstorm events due to instability in different layers of the atmosphere which can include the loss-causing sub-perils of strong winds, flooding, hail, tornadoes and lightning. These events tend to last for a number of hours with the most damage occurring over a short period of time, compared to other weather events which may last for more than one day. Australia Storm Available
Australia Earthquake: The earthquake model includes events with epicentres in Australia and in surrounding regions that lead to significant ground motion for Australian exposures. Site intensities in each modelled event are estimated based on a blend of published attenuation studies while damage to property takes account of Australian design codes. Australia Earthquake Available
Australia Cyclone: The full tracks of each cyclone are modelled, including events crossing the coastline and those bypassing coastal regions. For each event in the database the maximum wind speed is determined for each location of interest and using that wind speed, modified by adjustments for terrain and topography, loss to individual buildings and contents is estimated. Wind, flood and storm surge. Australia Cyclone Available
See COMBUS case study
ModEx Fathom highlighted map

Provider: Fathom

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
US Flood: The Fathom US Flood Model achieves a resolution of 30m, while their bespoke models can be as fine as 0.5m. Working with researchers at the University of Bristol, Fathom's US30 model was compared to flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and United States Geological Survey. The data attained a very high level of fit to FEMA flood maps, capturing over 80% of the flooded area specified. USA Flood On request
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Overhead view of a person working at a desk, showing one hand on a laptop and one pointing to charts on a paper.

Provider: Impact Forecasting

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Arabian Peninsula Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Arabian Peninsula Earthquake model provides (re)insurers with a better understanding of how their portfolios will stand up after earthquakes of varying severity. The model makes use of state-of-the art research on regional seismic risk published in leading academic forums. Middle East Earthquake Available
Asia Typhoon: Impact Forecasting?s Asia Typhoon model has been developed to provide insight for companies with multi-territory exposure. The model covers the exposed regions in China, Hong Kong, India, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, including tropical cyclones generated in the Northern Indian Ocean and the North West Pacific Ocean. Asia Typhoon On request
Austria Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Austria Flood On request
Brazil Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Brazil Flood On request
Canada Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Canada Flood model offers (re)insurers a more complete view of risk in the region. The model assesses the potential levels of damage based on loss data from Impact Forecasting?s seven other country-specific flood models and Canadian client claims information. Canada Flood On request
Central Eastern European Earthquake: This Impacting Forecasting model is based on an earthquake catalogue which regionalises damage functions. The model allows (re)insurers to implement more effective insurance programmes and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Central Eastern Europe Earthquake On request
Central Eastern European Flood: Flood continues be a topic of concern to insurers, particularly in Europe. The stochastic event set of floods used in this model covers the entire region, rather than each country individually. The model therefore accounts for correlation in damages between countries. Central Eastern Europe Flood On request
Chile Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Chile Earthquake & Tsunami model allows (re)insurers to model portfolios with high resolution exposure data including detailed occupancies and mortgage books. Uncertainty is implemented in the location, hazard and vulnerability components of the model. Chile Earthquake On request
Chile Tsunami: Impact Forecasting?s Chile Earthquake & Tsunami model allows (re)insurers to model portfolios with high resolution exposure data including detailed occupancies and mortgage books. Uncertainty is implemented in the location, hazard and vulnerability components of the model. Chile Tsunami On request
Czech Republic Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Czech Republic Flood On request
Czech Republic Hail: Impact Forecasting?s hail models help (re)insurers to identify emerging areas of severe weather risk, providing them with the information needed to better manage their portfolios. Czech Republic Hail On request
East Africa Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s East Africa model quantifies the financial impact of earthquakes, helping (re)insurers to gain a better understanding of their exposures in this growing market. The model uses earthquake data from local and international experts, including the University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre Africa. Africa Earthquake On request
France Flood: Impact Forecasting?s French Flood model quantifies losses for historical and hypothetical flood scenarios in Paris, Lyon and Toulouse. This provides clients with a better view of catastrophe risk in these high exposure areas. France Flood On request
Germany Earthquake: Impacting Forecasting?s Germany model is based on an earthquake catalogue that regionalises damage functions, taking into account typical building stock as well as ground conditions. This provides (re)insurers with vital data, helping them to manage their portfolios better. Germany Earthquake On request
Germany Terrorism: Impact Forecasting?s terrorism models look to provide a more realistic understanding of the potential range of losses from a terrorist attack. The models analyse a variety of possible scenarios, such as a structure deflecting a blast away from the insured building or if damage is limited to floors below the insured location. Germany Terrorism On request
Germany Storm Surge: Impact Forecasting?s German Storm Surge model analyses variables such as storm frequency, wind speed, tidal movements, wave height, and the efficacy of Germany?s current coastal defence systems. By generating thousands of stochastic scenarios the model quantifies (re)insurers? exposures and potential claims burdens. Germany Storm On request
Greece and Cyprus Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Greece and Cyprus Earthquake On request
Guam Tropical Storm: Impact Forecasting?s Guam Tropical Storm model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. Guam Storm On request
Hong Kong Tropical Cyclone: Impact Forecasting?s Hong Kong Tropical Cyclone model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. Hong Kong Cyclone On request
Hungary Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Hungary Flood On request
Indonesia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Indonesia Flood On request
Japan Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s unique Japan Earthquake model provides an open software design that gives users unprecedented access to modelling functions including active fault parameters and various portfolio disaggregation options. Japan Earthquake On request
Kazakhstan Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Kazakhstan Earthquake On request
Maghreb Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Maghreb Earthquake model uses loss data combined with seismological expertise, making the model scientifically sound and reliable, while gearing it towards the needs of the market. This has led to a more accurate understanding of financial risk from earthquakes and is the next step in providing wider model coverage in North Africa. Maghreb Earthquake On request
Malaysia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Malaysia Flood model was developed to help (re)insurers underwrite and manage their exposures in Asia. The model has the ability to analyse portfolios with residential, commercial and industrial estate lines of business. Malaysia Earthquake On request
Mexico Flood: Flooding in Mexico is considered to be one of the most significant natural perils, alongside earthquakes and hurricanes. This Impact Forecasting flood model enables (re)insurers to obtain a more realistic estimate of their specific flood exposure in Mexico. Mexico Flood On request
Netherlands Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Netherlands Flood On request
Poland Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Poland Flood model provides a complete view on probabilistic riverine and off-flood plain losses on latitude, longitude or postal code geocoding level. Highly detailed, top quality flood hazard maps enable not only portfolio modelling but can also be used for primary underwriting linked to your underwriting systems. Poland Flood On request
Portugal Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Portugal Flood On request
Slovakia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Slovakia Flood On request
South Africa Earthquake: While South Africa is less seismically active than other regions, it has experienced at least five events with a magnitude of six or greater since 1800. In 1969 a Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake north-east of Capetown virtually destroyed Tulbagh leaving many homes and businesses in ruin. To help manage this risk, Impact Forecasting developed a seismic model for the region. South Africa Earthquake Available
South Africa Hail: Impact Forecasting?s hail models help (re)insurers to identify emerging areas of severe weather risk, providing them with the information needed to better manage their portfolios. South Africa Hail On request
Sweden Cloudburst: Impacting Forecasting?s Swedish Cloudburst model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. All Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client?s requirements. Sweden Cloudburst On request
Switzerland Earthquake: The Switzerland Earthquake model is a high quality model based on the best local knowledge available. The model assesses earthquake risk for both the proposed compulsory earthquake insurance scheme and for private insurers. Switzerland Earthquake On request
Switzerland Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Switzerland Flood model calculates both probabilistic and historical loss estimates which helps (re)insurers better understand the risks they write. The new tool reflects both locally-sourced data and the latest developments in hydrology. Switzerland Flood On request
Thailand Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Thailand Flood model provides (re)insurers with an improved understanding of key drivers of flood risk in Thailand and the ability to formulate effective underwriting guidelines. The model is set up to run stochastic, historical and user-defined events. Thailand Flood On request
Turkey and Israel Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Turkey and Israel Earthquake On request
UK Terrorism UK Terrorism On request
United States Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s United States Earthquake model considers established faults as well as other earthquake locations spread over a broad area. The hazard model accounts for the latest research provided by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). USA Earthquake On request
United States Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. USA Flood On request
United States Severe Thunderstorm: Impact Forecasting?s US Severe Thunderstorm model allows users to identify emerging areas of severe weather, model the spatial distribution of events accurately and obtain a more holistic view of risk. This helps (re)insurers to manage their portfolios more effectively. USA Thunderstorm On request
United States Storm Surge: Impact Forecasting?s US Severe Storm Surge model considers tornado, hail and other severe wind threats. Impact Forecasting used historical severe storm incidence data from the U.S. Storm Prediction Centre to generate a rich stochastic set of likely storm events across the United States. USA Storm Surge On request
United States Tropical Cyclone: Impacting Forecasting?s US Tropical Cyclone model provides data on the full spectrum of landfalling and bypassing storms, helping (re)insurers to manage risk and make more informed portfolio decisions. USA Tropical Cyclone On request
United States Terrorism: Impact Forecasting?s terrorism models look to provide a more realistic understanding of the potential range of losses from a terrorist attack. The models analyse a variety of possible scenarios, such as a structure deflecting a blast away from the insured building or if damage is limited to floors below the insured location. USA Terrorism On request
Vietnam Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Vietnam Flood model offers detailed modelling for hazard and vulnerability and has the ability to run residential, commercial, general industrial, industrial estates and engineering portfolios. It enables (re)insurers to better understand their exposure to flood events and hence make more informed portfolio decisions. Vietnam Flood On request
Western Balkans Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Western Balkans model assesses earthquake risk in the seismically active zone stretching between the Southern Alps and Greece. The model is based on hazard and vulnerability data provided by local seismologists and civil engineers. Western Balkans Earthquake On request
See Impact Forecasting Case Study
JBA logo

Provider: JBA Risk Management

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
UK River, Surface Water and Coastal Flood: JBA’s UK Flood probabilistic model is the first to include river, surface water and coastal flood for the United Kingdom. Designed with the implementation of Flood Re in mind, the model enables the comprehensive, high-resolution quantification of flood risk to insured properties. UK Flood Available
Sri Lanka River and Surface Water: JBA’s probabilistic flood model for river and surface water in Sri Lanka combines flood hazard maps and thousands of years of simulated events with a built environment model and bespoke vulnerability curves. Recent updates to this model have included the creation of specific low-income vulnerability curves developed to capture losses to low-income households and small businesses covered by the National Natural Disaster Insurance Scheme. The multi-return period hazard component of the model provides full national coverage of river and surface water flooding and includes defence information. Sri Lanka Flood On request
Malaysia River and Surface Water: The Malaysia model is a full probabilistic multi-peril flood model allowing analysis of risks from river flood (nationwide with around 15,000km total river length modelled) and surface water (modelled for 10 cities). With an underlying hazard map resolution of 30m, the Malaysia flood model’s resolution and quality are cutting edge in this territory.   Malaysia Flood On request
India River and Surface Water: The India probabilistic flood model currently includes the 23 most exposed cities in the country, with surface water and river flood included depending on which peril is the greater threat to each city. The model combines flood hazard maps and 10,000 years of simulated events with a built environment model and bespoke vulnerability curves. India Flood On request
Thailand River Flood: JBA Risk Management’s probabilistic flood model for Thailand was released in response to the need amongst insurers and reinsurers to better understand Thai flood risk following the floods of 2011. The model combines river flood hazard maps, covering 20,000km of river network, and 10,000 years of simulated events with bespoke vulnerability curves and a built environment model. Thailand Flood On request
Europe River Flood: The Europe probabilistic model enables the calculation of return period losses across Europe. The underlying flood maps of Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland are modelled at up to 10m resolution. An event set, a built environment model and vulnerability functions for 78 risk types complete the model which has five aggregation levels, from 5-digit postcode level up to Europe-wide level.  Europe Flood On request
Vietnam River flood and surface water; JBA's Vietnam Flood Probabilistic Model is the first multi-peril (river flood and surface water) catastrophe model for the re/insurance industry, aiding risk management in Vietnam.  The model has been developed to cater for the aggregated exposure portfolios while maintaining the need for high resolution flood analysis.  Vietnam Flood On request
UK Climate Change Flood: JBA's UK Climate Change Flood Model, which draws on the latest scientific understanding of climate change, helps (re)insurers understand the impact of climate change across the country. It provides quantitative results that supports projections from research and government data that the number of UK flood events causing financial loss will rise between now and 2040. UK Flood Available
India Crop: The India Crop Model helps (re)insurance companies both price and manage their exposure to insured crop losses under both the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana scheme (Indian Prime Minister’s Crop Insurance Scheme or PMFBY) and Restructured Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (RWBCIS). Developed with industry partners and covering both growing seasons in India (Kharif and Rabi), the JBA model uses unique physical crop modelling techniques to simulate historic crop yields using current farming practice. India Crop On request
Continental China Flood: JBA's Continental China Flood Model is the first combined river and surface water flood model for China, capturing flooding from both extreme non-typhoon and typhoon precipitation. The model includes industrial site footprints and a sophisticated disaggregation approach to enhance province-level exposure data and analyse flood risk at high resolution. China Flood On request
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Risk Frontiers logo

Provider: Risk Frontiers

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Australian Hail Model - HailAUS 7.0: Risk Frontiers’ HailAUS 7.0 is a fully stochastic loss model for hail and covers all of Australia. It includes a catalogue of hail storms reflecting frequency and severity of ‘high storm potential days’ derived from reanalysis data and the observed historical record. It calculates losses for Residential, Commercial, Industrial property as well as Motor portfolios. Australia Hail Available
Learn more at Risk Frontier's website
UCL logo

Provider: UCL

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Cascadia Tsunami: UCL's Cascadia Tsunami model combines tsunami loss information with earthquake shaking damage output, providing the intelligence to quantify and manage risk from these extreme events, where historically losses have been little understood. Cascadia Tsunami On request
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