Impact Forecasting

providing probabilistic and scenario catastrophe risk models, hazard data, and customized model development.

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Breadth of Model Coverage

With over 100 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 10 perils and over 60 territories, Impact Forecasting empower insurers by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe, as well as for the emerging markets. This allows insurers to place effective (re)insurance programs and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organisations around the world to incorporate the latest research into all of their catastrophe models.

Provider: Impact Forecasting

MODEL LOCATION PERIL STATUS
Arabian Peninsula Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Arabian Peninsula Earthquake model provides (re)insurers with a better understanding of how their portfolios will stand up after earthquakes of varying severity. The model makes use of state-of-the art research on regional seismic risk published in leading academic forums. Middle East Earthquake Available
Asia Typhoon: Impact Forecasting?s Asia Typhoon model has been developed to provide insight for companies with multi-territory exposure. The model covers the exposed regions in China, Hong Kong, India, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, including tropical cyclones generated in the Northern Indian Ocean and the North West Pacific Ocean. Asia Typhoon On request
Austria Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Austria Flood On request
Brazil Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Brazil Flood On request
Canada Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Canada Flood model offers (re)insurers a more complete view of risk in the region. The model assesses the potential levels of damage based on loss data from Impact Forecasting?s seven other country-specific flood models and Canadian client claims information. Canada Flood On request
Central Eastern European Earthquake: This Impacting Forecasting model is based on an earthquake catalogue which regionalises damage functions. The model allows (re)insurers to implement more effective insurance programmes and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Central Eastern Europe Earthquake On request
Central Eastern European Flood: Flood continues be a topic of concern to insurers, particularly in Europe. The stochastic event set of floods used in this model covers the entire region, rather than each country individually. The model therefore accounts for correlation in damages between countries. Central Eastern Europe Flood On request
Chile Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Chile Earthquake & Tsunami model allows (re)insurers to model portfolios with high resolution exposure data including detailed occupancies and mortgage books. Uncertainty is implemented in the location, hazard and vulnerability components of the model. Chile Earthquake On request
Chile Tsunami: Impact Forecasting?s Chile Earthquake & Tsunami model allows (re)insurers to model portfolios with high resolution exposure data including detailed occupancies and mortgage books. Uncertainty is implemented in the location, hazard and vulnerability components of the model. Chile Tsunami On request
Czech Republic Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Czech Republic Flood On request
Czech Republic Hail: Impact Forecasting?s hail models help (re)insurers to identify emerging areas of severe weather risk, providing them with the information needed to better manage their portfolios. Czech Republic Hail On request
East Africa Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s East Africa model quantifies the financial impact of earthquakes, helping (re)insurers to gain a better understanding of their exposures in this growing market. The model uses earthquake data from local and international experts, including the University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre Africa. Africa Earthquake On request
France Flood: Impact Forecasting?s French Flood model quantifies losses for historical and hypothetical flood scenarios in Paris, Lyon and Toulouse. This provides clients with a better view of catastrophe risk in these high exposure areas. France Flood On request
Germany Earthquake: Impacting Forecasting?s Germany model is based on an earthquake catalogue that regionalises damage functions, taking into account typical building stock as well as ground conditions. This provides (re)insurers with vital data, helping them to manage their portfolios better. Germany Earthquake On request
Germany Terrorism: Impact Forecasting?s terrorism models look to provide a more realistic understanding of the potential range of losses from a terrorist attack. The models analyse a variety of possible scenarios, such as a structure deflecting a blast away from the insured building or if damage is limited to floors below the insured location. Germany Terrorism On request
Germany Storm Surge: Impact Forecasting?s German Storm Surge model analyses variables such as storm frequency, wind speed, tidal movements, wave height, and the efficacy of Germany?s current coastal defence systems. By generating thousands of stochastic scenarios the model quantifies (re)insurers? exposures and potential claims burdens. Germany Storm On request
Greece and Cyprus Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Greece and Cyprus Earthquake On request
Guam Tropical Storm: Impact Forecasting?s Guam Tropical Storm model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. Guam Storm On request
Hong Kong Tropical Cyclone: Impact Forecasting?s Hong Kong Tropical Cyclone model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. Hong Kong Cyclone On request
Hungary Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Hungary Flood On request
Indonesia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Indonesia Flood On request
Japan Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s unique Japan Earthquake model provides an open software design that gives users unprecedented access to modelling functions including active fault parameters and various portfolio disaggregation options. Japan Earthquake On request
Kazakhstan Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Kazakhstan Earthquake On request
Maghreb Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Maghreb Earthquake model uses loss data combined with seismological expertise, making the model scientifically sound and reliable, while gearing it towards the needs of the market. This has led to a more accurate understanding of financial risk from earthquakes and is the next step in providing wider model coverage in North Africa. Maghreb Earthquake On request
Malaysia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Malaysia Flood model was developed to help (re)insurers underwrite and manage their exposures in Asia. The model has the ability to analyse portfolios with residential, commercial and industrial estate lines of business. Malaysia Earthquake On request
Mexico Flood: Flooding in Mexico is considered to be one of the most significant natural perils, alongside earthquakes and hurricanes. This Impact Forecasting flood model enables (re)insurers to obtain a more realistic estimate of their specific flood exposure in Mexico. Mexico Flood On request
Netherlands Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Netherlands Flood On request
Poland Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Poland Flood model provides a complete view on probabilistic riverine and off-flood plain losses on latitude, longitude or postal code geocoding level. Highly detailed, top quality flood hazard maps enable not only portfolio modelling but can also be used for primary underwriting linked to your underwriting systems. Poland Flood On request
Portugal Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Portugal Flood On request
Slovakia Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. Slovakia Flood On request
South Africa Earthquake: While South Africa is less seismically active than other regions, it has experienced at least five events with a magnitude of six or greater since 1800. In 1969 a Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake north-east of Capetown virtually destroyed Tulbagh leaving many homes and businesses in ruin. To help manage this risk, Impact Forecasting developed a seismic model for the region. South Africa Earthquake Available
South Africa Hail: Impact Forecasting?s hail models help (re)insurers to identify emerging areas of severe weather risk, providing them with the information needed to better manage their portfolios. South Africa Hail On request
Sweden Cloudburst: Impacting Forecasting?s Swedish Cloudburst model provides (re)insurers with more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their business. All Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client?s requirements. Sweden Cloudburst On request
Switzerland Earthquake: The Switzerland Earthquake model is a high quality model based on the best local knowledge available. The model assesses earthquake risk for both the proposed compulsory earthquake insurance scheme and for private insurers. Switzerland Earthquake On request
Switzerland Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Switzerland Flood model calculates both probabilistic and historical loss estimates which helps (re)insurers better understand the risks they write. The new tool reflects both locally-sourced data and the latest developments in hydrology. Switzerland Flood On request
Thailand Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Thailand Flood model provides (re)insurers with an improved understanding of key drivers of flood risk in Thailand and the ability to formulate effective underwriting guidelines. The model is set up to run stochastic, historical and user-defined events. Thailand Flood On request
Turkey and Israel Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s earthquake models provide hazard data and associated risk score data to the (re)insurance industry. This helps them to better understand and quantify catastrophic risk from earthquakes and the impact on their portfolios. Turkey and Israel Earthquake On request
UK Terrorism UK Terrorism On request
United States Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s United States Earthquake model considers established faults as well as other earthquake locations spread over a broad area. The hazard model accounts for the latest research provided by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). USA Earthquake On request
United States Flood: Impact Forecasting?s flood models make a wealth of data available to clients in the (re)insurance industry, enabling them to better understand their exposure to flood events and make more informed portfolio decisions. USA Flood On request
United States Severe Thunderstorm: Impact Forecasting?s US Severe Thunderstorm model allows users to identify emerging areas of severe weather, model the spatial distribution of events accurately and obtain a more holistic view of risk. This helps (re)insurers to manage their portfolios more effectively. USA Thunderstorm On request
United States Storm Surge: Impact Forecasting?s US Severe Storm Surge model considers tornado, hail and other severe wind threats. Impact Forecasting used historical severe storm incidence data from the U.S. Storm Prediction Centre to generate a rich stochastic set of likely storm events across the United States. USA Storm Surge On request
United States Tropical Cyclone: Impacting Forecasting?s US Tropical Cyclone model provides data on the full spectrum of landfalling and bypassing storms, helping (re)insurers to manage risk and make more informed portfolio decisions. USA Tropical Cyclone On request
United States Terrorism: Impact Forecasting?s terrorism models look to provide a more realistic understanding of the potential range of losses from a terrorist attack. The models analyse a variety of possible scenarios, such as a structure deflecting a blast away from the insured building or if damage is limited to floors below the insured location. USA Terrorism On request
Vietnam Flood: Impact Forecasting?s Vietnam Flood model offers detailed modelling for hazard and vulnerability and has the ability to run residential, commercial, general industrial, industrial estates and engineering portfolios. It enables (re)insurers to better understand their exposure to flood events and hence make more informed portfolio decisions. Vietnam Flood On request
Western Balkans Earthquake: Impact Forecasting?s Western Balkans model assesses earthquake risk in the seismically active zone stretching between the Southern Alps and Greece. The model is based on hazard and vulnerability data provided by local seismologists and civil engineers. Western Balkans Earthquake On request
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About Impact Forecasting

Impact Forecasting, Aon’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence, enables firms to analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events and achieve a greater understanding of their risks.

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