JANUARY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: IMMIGRATION IS NOW VOTERS' TOP CONCERN

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TRUMP WIDENS LEAD BUT A JANUARY 6 CONVICTION COULD SWING ELECTION

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Jan. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the January Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Joe Biden's rating on immigration sank to 35% as a majority of voters seek a bipartisan deal on immigration.

President Joe Biden's approval rating is 42% with economic sentiment staying even. His immigration rating sank to 35% as an overwhelming majority of voters now want a bipartisan deal on immigration. The poll also covers public opinion on the 2024 horse race and the Israel-Hamas war. Download key results here.

"For all the talk of international crises, Americans are focused on America and themselves first," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "They are very concerned about immigration, inflation and crime and that's why many of them are saying they want a new president."

IMMIGRATION CONCERNS ARE NOW FRONT AND CENTER

  • Immigration is now the top concern for voters, up 7 points since last month to 35% (with inflation at second, 32%).
  • 77% of voters believe the Biden administration should make a deal with the Republicans to increase border security – including 65% of Democrats.
  • 68% believe the Biden administration should make it tougher to get into the U.S. illegally – including 50% of Democrats.

JANUARY 6 MIGHT BE THE ONLY TRUMP CONVICTION THAT COULD SWING ELECTION TO BIDEN

  • Trump currently leads the head-to-head against Biden by 7 points.
  • If Trump is convicted for mishandling of classified documents, he wins against Biden by 6 points.
  • If Trump is convicted on RICO charges for influencing the Georgia 2020 election results, he wins against Biden by 2 points.
  • But if Trump is convicted for inciting Capitol riots on January 6, Biden wins by 4 points.

TRUMP'S GOP LEAD GROWS DESPITE BALLOT ACCESS CONTROVERSIES

  • Trump leads the GOP primary with 71% support, up 4 points since last month.
  • 61% of voters believe Ron DeSantis does not have a viable path to the GOP nomination; 58% believe Nikki Haley does not have a viable path.
  • 55% think the Supreme Court should put Trump back on the Colorado ballot, and 64% predict the Supreme Court will do so.

VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT

  • 44% of voters believe their personal economics right now are good or excellent, while 42% say the U.S. economy is strong.

ISRAEL SUPPORT IS STEADY WHILE MAJORITY SUPPORT RETALIATION AGAINST HOUTHIS

  • 80% of voters support Israel over Hamas, steady over the past few months (ages 18-24: 57%; ages 65+: 93%).
  • 67% believe a ceasefire should happen only after the hostages are released and Hamas removed from power (ages 18-24: 37%; ages 65+: 90%).
  • 77% believe the Houthis in Yemen are a terrorist group (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 91%).
  • 74% support the retaliatory attacks by the U.S. and multinational coalition forces against the Houthis (ages 18-24: 61%; ages 65+: 90%).

The January Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on January 17-18, 2024, among 2,346 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisXThe Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

CONTACT: Sarah Arvizopr@stagwellglobal.com 

The Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll is a monthly research collaboration between the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll (PRNewsfoto/Stagwell Inc.)

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