세컨더리 시장 현황

[로리] 안녕하세요, Nasdaq Fund Secondaries의 웹캐스트 시리즈인 State of Secondaries에 오신 것을 환영합니다. 저는 Nasdaq에서 기관 팀을 이끄는 로리 메이븐입니다. 이 시리즈에서는 사모 시장의 리더들과 함께 오늘날의 환경을 형성하는 주요 주제를 논의합니다. 오늘은 Antares Capital의 유동성 솔루션 관리 이사이자 신용 세컨더리 책임자인 Olga Kosters와 함께 세컨더리 시장 내 사모 신용의 최근 성장에 대해 이야기합니다. 환영합니다, Olga.[Rory] Hello, and welcome to the State of Secondaries, a webcast series from Nasdaq Fund Secondaries. I'm Rory Maben, and I lead the institutional side of our team here at Nasdaq. In this series, we sit down with leaders across private markets to discuss key themes shaping today's landscape. And today we're joined by Olga Kosters, Managing Director of Liquidity Solutions and the Head of Credit Secondaries at Antares Capital, to discuss the recent growth of private credit within the secondaries market. Welcome, Olga.

[Olga] 초대해 주셔서 감사합니다, 로리. 여기 오게 되어 기쁩니다.[Olga] Thank you for having me, Rory. Nice to be here.

[Rory] It's so great to have you with us. In today's conversation, we'll focus on the evolution and acceleration of the credit secondaries market, the rise of GP-led credit secondaries. We'll consider the influence of current financial conditions on market trends, and we'll assess the key factors and risks that will likely determine the credit continuation vehicle performance in the coming 12 to 24 months. We'll start with a little bit of context-setting. So private credit secondaries has moved from a niche strategy to rapidly growing segment of the secondary market. From your perspective, what structural shifts have driven the acceleration, and how has the market growth influenced your personal involvement in this space?

[Olga] 저는 투자자로서 26년 이상 활동해왔으며, 지난 6년 이상은 신용 세컨더리에 집중했습니다. 2019년에 시드 자금을 받고 첫 신용 세컨더리 펀드를 시작했을 때, 투자자들이 처음으로 물어본 질문은 "시장이 있습니까?"였습니다. 이제는 아무도 그 질문을 하지 않습니다. 브로커의 통계에 따르면, 작년 시장에서 체결된 거래의 규모는 약 200억이었으며, 시장은 상당히 성장했습니다. 저는 지금 시장이 매우 흥미로운 단계에 접어들고 있다고 생각합니다. 급속한 성장 단계 이후, 시장은 성숙해지고 있으며, 더 많은 기관 투자자를 유치하고 있습니다. 흥미로운 점은 우리를 여기까지 이끈 트렌드와 앞으로의 변화입니다. 우리를 여기까지 이끈 트렌드는, 우선 사모 신용이 상당히 성장했다는 것입니다. 현재 약 1.5조에서 2조에 달하며, 매우 비유동적인 자산 클래스이기 때문에 사람들이 유동성을 찾고 있는 것은 자연스러운 일이며, 이는 신용 세컨더리에 대한 순풍입니다. 그리고 다른 한편으로, 신용 세컨더리는 사모 펀드 세컨더리 시장의 발자취를 따라가고 있으며, 법적 프레임워크와 법적 청사진이 개발되었습니다. 신용 세컨더리는 사모 펀드 측에서 개발된 일부 법적 도구를 따라가고 채택하고 있습니다. 이것이 우리를 여기까지 이끈 이유입니다. 앞으로 어떻게 발전할 것인지에 대해, 제 의견으로는 성공적인 신용 투자자, 신용 세컨더리 투자자는 두 가지가 필요합니다. 매우 정교한 신용 언더라이팅을 가진 경험 많은 팀이 필요합니다. 그리고 다른 한편으로, 깊은 자본 풀을 필요로 합니다. 그래서 1년 반 전에 Antares에 합류할 기회가 주어졌을 때, 매우 흥미롭다고 생각했습니다. Antares는 30년 이상 신용과 사모 시장에서 언더라이팅을 해왔으며, 매우 강력한 언더라이팅 기반을 가지고 있습니다. 또한, 그들은 CPP Investments와 매우 강력한 파트너입니다. 자체적으로 매우 잘 자본화되고 정교한 투자자입니다. 그래서 저는 이 두 가지가 성공적인 신용 세컨더리 투자의 매우 좋은 기반을 만든다고 생각합니다.[Olga] I've been an investor for more than 26 years now, and the last six-plus years, I focused on credit secondaries. When I got seed capital in 2019 and launched my first credit secondaries fund, back then, the first question that investors would ask, "Is there a market?" And now, of course, nobody is asking that question. So based on some of the stat from the brokers, the last year volume of closed deals in the market was about 20 billion, so the market has grown quite a bit. And I think it's entering in a very interesting stage right now. It's after this accelerated stage of growth, the market is maturing, bringing more institutional investors. And what's interesting is the trends that got us here and what's going to happen from now on. So the trends that got us here were, well, first of all, the private credit has grown quite a bit. So now it stands at around 1.5 to 2 trillion. And it's a very illiquid asset class, so people are searching for liquidity, it's natural, and that's a tailwind for credit secondaries. And then on the other side, credit secondaries are following in the footsteps of private equity secondaries market, where there was a development of legal framework, legal blueprint. In a way, credit secondaries are following and adopting some of those legal tools that were developed on the private equity side. This is what brought us here. In terms of how it's going to evolve from here, I think in my opinion, successful credit investors, credit secondaries investors, need two things. They need experienced teams with very sophisticated credit underwriting. And then on the other side, they need deep pools of capital. So when this opportunity to join Antares presented itself one and a half years ago, I thought it was very interesting. Antares has more than 30 years of underwriting credit and private markets, so it has a really strong backbone of underwriting. And also, they're very strong partners with CPP Investments. A very well-capitalized and sophisticated investor in its own right. So I think those two are making a very good basis for successful credit secondaries investments.

[Rory] Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense and obviously this is a great space to be in today and we'll continue to kind of focus on the evolution first and then we'll talk a little bit more about the current context. From your perspective, how does the evolution of private credit create the conditions for growing interest from investors? And why is credit such a compelling area within secondaries?

[Olga] 로리, 투자자들은 제가 그 대화를 나눈 이후로 신용 세컨더리에 관심을 가져왔다고 생각합니다. 그 이유는 두 가지입니다. 매우 안정적인 환경에서는 신용 세컨더리가 다양성을 제공하고, 안정적인 수입 기반을 제공하며 기존 포트폴리오와 자산을 평가하는 데 매우 좋은 시각을 제공합니다. 그리고 더 변동성이 큰 시장에서는 이 유동성 프리미엄을 수확할 수 있습니다. 따라서 안정적인 시장에서는 투자자들이 안정적인 수입을 얻고, 변동성이 큰 시장에서는 유동성 수확에서 잠재적인 상승을 얻을 수 있습니다. 유동성 단계가 유동성에 대한 높은 가격으로 전환될 때, 이는 신용 투자자들에게 자본 보호와 잠재적 초과 수익을 위한 쿠션을 제공합니다.[Olga] Rory, I think investors have been interested in credit secondaries since I had those conversations. And the reason is twofold. In very stable environment, credit secondaries provide diversification, provide very stable basis for income and provide a very good lens on underwriting existing portfolios and assets. And in more volatile markets, this liquidity premium can be harvested. So in stable markets, investors get stable income, and in volatile markets, they potentially get an upside from liquidity harvesting. stable income, and in volatile markets, they potentially get an upside from liquidity harvesting. Because when liquidity phase turns into higher price for liquidity, I think this provides credit investors with a cushion for protecting capital and potential outperformance.

[Rory] Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. And if we focus on kind of different segments of the secondary market, let's take a look at GP-led credit secondaries. So we're seeing a rise in GP-led credit continuation vehicles. So for example, your recently announced deal with Ares. Can we talk a little bit more about what created the conditions for more GP-led CVs in this space? kind of different segments of the secondary market, let's take a look at GP-led credit secondaries. So we're seeing a rise in GP-led credit continuation vehicles. So for example, your recently announced deal with Ares. Can we talk a little bit more about what created the conditions for more GP-led CVs in this space?

[올가] 시장이 수년간 더 제도화되었다고 생각합니다. 그래서 GP 주도 거래, GP는 general partners를 의미하며, 거래를 주도하고 있으며, 이러한 지속 차량은 본질적으로 새로운 펀드로, 자산 포트폴리오가 씨앗으로 사용되어 이러한 펀드로 이동합니다. 지난 몇 년 동안, GP 주도 거래는 모든 크레딧 세컨더리 시장의 큰 부분을 차지했습니다. 왜 이런 일이 발생했을까요? 한편으로는 많은 자본 형성이 있었습니다. 그래서 다시 말해, 많은 기관 투자자들이 시장에 들어오고, 지속 차량과 거래를 위한 많은 자본이 제공되었습니다. 그리고 GP 관점에서, 그들은 시장의 깊이에 대한 상대적으로 좋은 시각이 없으면 거래를 시작하고 싶지 않습니다. 그들은 거래가 성공적일 것임을 확실히 하고 싶어합니다. 그것이 한 가지 요인이었습니다. 다른 요인들은 성숙도로 돌아가서, 크레딧 세컨더리에 대한 매우 큰 관심이 있으며, 이는 중개인의 관심을 유도합니다. 그래서 그들은 더 활발하게 활동하려고 하고, CV는 다양한 요구를 충족시키고 다양한 솔루션을 제공합니다. 일부 GPs는 LPs에 유동성을 제공하고 싶어합니다. 일부 GPs는 자금 조달의 모멘텀을 강화하고 싶어합니다. 그들 중 일부는 여러 소규모 펀드를 더 큰 펀드로 합병하려고 합니다. 그래서 이러한 모든 요구는 맞춤화될 수 있습니다. 중개인들은 다양한 GPs와 매우 활발한 참여를 개발했습니다. 마지막으로, 당신이 언급한 Ares와의 거래를 말씀드리자면, 시장에 나온 여러 블루칩, 매우 존경받는 GPs가 있었습니다. 그래서 다른 GPs가 그 추세를 따르는 데 큰 요인이라고 생각합니다. 그리고 그것은 매우 성공적인 거래 환경으로 입증되었습니다. 그래서 그런 관점에서, 더 많은 GP 주도 거래가 미래에 이루어질 수 있는 길을 닦았다고 생각합니다.[Olga] I think the market has become more institutionalized over the years. So GP-leds, GP stand for general partners, are leading the deals, and those continuation vehicles, essentially new funds that are being formed, where a portfolio of assets is used as a seed to move into those funds. And in the last several years, GP-leds took a lion's share of all the credit secondaries markets. So why has it happened? On the one hand, there was a lot of capital formation. So again, a lot of institutional investors coming into the market, a lot of capital provided for potential continuation vehicles and deals. And from a GP perspective, they don't want to launch a deal unless they have a relatively good view on depth of the market. And they really want to ensure that the deal is going to be successful. So that was one factor. The other factors were more so with, again, going back to maturity, there is a very large interest in credit secondaries, and that drives brokers' interest. So they really try to be more active, and CVs can answer different needs and provide different solutions. Some GPs want to provide liquidity for the LPs. Some GPs want to enhance the momentum in fundraising. Some of them are looking to merge several subscale funds into a bigger fund. So all of those needs can be tailored. And brokers have developed a very kind of active engagement with various GPs. And the last but not least, I would say to your point, you mentioned the deal with Ares. There was a number of blue-chip, very well-respected GPs coming to the market. So I think it's a very big factor for other GPs following the trend. And it's proven to be a very successful deal-making environment. So I think that from that perspective, that sort of paved the way for more GP-leds to be done in the future.

[로리] 네, 그 말이 맞습니다. 여러 가지를 언급하셨네요. 몇 분 후에 생태계에 대해 더 이야기하겠지만, 오늘의 LP를 위한 핵심 단어인 '정렬'에 집중하고 싶습니다. 크레딧 GP 주도 거래를 고려할 때, 자산 선택과 구조적 요소가 거래 결과에 얼마나 중요한 역할을 하는지 궁금합니다. 그리고 전통적인 LP 주도 세컨더리와 비교했을 때, 이러한 선택 가능성이 거래 역학에 어떤 변화를 가져오는지 알고 싶습니다.[Rory] Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And you touched on a number of things. We'll talk more about the ecosystem in a few minutes, but want to really focus on kind of the word of the day for LPs, which is alignment, right? So when you're thinking about these types of deals in credit GP-leds, how important are asset selection and kind of structural elements when it comes to driving outcomes in the transactions? And how does that optionality sort of change the deal dynamics as opposed to a traditional LP-led secondary?

[Olga] So I started my career as an analyst within the private equity team, financial institutions group. So what we were doing, we were essentially doing what I'm doing now but in a different context. So we were looking at banks, both assets and liabilities, and trying to figure out how much we were going to pay for stakes in those banks. So fast-forward to now, every GP-led deal and actually LP-led deals, so includes two specific aspects of an underwriting. So on the one hand, we're very keen on understanding what the asset side is like, so the left side of the balance sheet. On the other side, we do want to understand what the structure looks like on the right side of the balance sheet. What you pointed to is very important. Do we have an optionality to select assets? Do we have this optionality to construct the portfolio? And if not, how we can price the assets that we're presented with. Right? So this is a very deep underwriting due diligence process on the asset side. The liability side is just as important, and that's back to your question on the structuring elements. Because if the liability side does not match what we have on the asset, that may create suboptimal performance for the vehicle overall. So I think in our due diligence process, we'll look at both. And I think that's how we drive the conviction. And for some of the high-conviction deals, both left side and right side have to work. So we've talked a little bit about the participants in the market, both the GPs and the LPs, which are the direct relationship, as well as the secondary buyers. How do kind of the interrelationships, how do relationships at their core really drive the reshaping of the credit secondaries ecosystem? Historically, fund of funds were leading the drive for secondaries, and that was very common sense, right? They had a lot of investments and funds. They had an information flow for funds. They have relationship with limited partners and GPs, LPs and GPs, so they were in a very good position to drive the growth in traditional LP-led credit secondaries. Yeah. What has happened since then is that GPs like Antares have figured that they can also underwrite not just the funds but also line-by-line assets within those funds, and that plays to their strengths. So in that regard, people like Antares and other GPs who entered the market, they're focused on underwriting, and they do have relationships that they formed across different market participants, maybe not as an LP, but they do have a wide network of relationships that they formed over three decades of being in the business. So I think both underwriting and relationship aspects work What's important for general partners who are considering launching the CV is that their information is protected. So what we have done, and many other market participants have done, we've created a wall. So we've created Antares Liquidity Solutions business as a standalone business, and we protect the information we receive from leaking outside of our team, of our group, our business. This is table stakes for credit secondaries, private equity secondaries. This is not something we invented, but we understand how important it is to protect the information. And hence, we spend a lot of time and attention building the wall so that we can answer this question and not jeopardize our reputation or our business.

[로리] 물론입니다. 네, 그건 정말 말이 됩니다.[Rory] Sure. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

[Olga] And again, really protecting the integrity of those relationships.

[Rory] So let's kind of turn our focus to what's happening in the current market. There's been a lot of talk about credit in private equity in the last six-plus months. So how are current market conditions, from your perspective, really influencing the types of credit assets being brought to the secondary market and the way that these deals are structured? In the current market there's been a lot of talk about credit in private equity in the last six-plus months. So how are current market conditions, from your perspective, really influencing the types of credit assets being brought to the secondary market and the way that these deals are structured?

[Olga] 물론입니다. 우리는 3월 31일에 이것을 녹음하고 있습니다. 네. 모든 특정 헤드라인을 다루지 않고도, 꽤 많은 것이 있습니다. 물론입니다. 저는 그것들을 두 가지 큰 범주로 나눌 것입니다. 하나는 평가와 관련이 있고, 다른 하나는 유동성과 관련이 있습니다. 그래서 신용 세컨더리 투자자로서, 우리는 자산 풀, 포트폴리오, 펀드에 있는 특정 대출을 평가할 때, 그것을 어떻게 평가하는지의 관점에서 접근합니다. 그리고 우리가 보는 평가와 우리가 그것에 부여하는 가치 사이에 어떤 델타와 차이가 있는지 확인합니다. 그래서 그 점에서, 우리가 보는 포트폴리오에서 대출을 검토하고 인수할 수 있는 능력을 갖추는 것이 매우 중요한 기능이라고 생각합니다. 그리고 때때로 우리의 평가가 우리가 보는 평가와 다를 때가 있습니다. 그래서 그것이 가격을 결정합니다. 다른 측면은 유동성입니다. 우리가 이야기한 것처럼, private 신용은 비유동성 자산 클래스이므로, 현재 시장에서, 과거, 미래에 유동성을 찾는 것은 우리가 설계된 것입니다. 맞습니다. 이것이 신용 세컨더리 전략의 목적입니다. 그래서 저는 이러한 시기에 유동성을 제공하는 것이 GPs와 LPs 모두에게 우리가 기대하는 일이라고 생각합니다. 우리의 관점에서, 그것이 어떻게 전개될지에 따라 지연이 있지만, 그것은 더 흥미로운 기회가 우리에게 다가올 것이며, 우리가 유동성 솔루션을 제공할 수 있기를 바랍니다. 모든 특정 헤드라인을 다루지 않고도, 꽤 많은 것이 있습니다. 저는 그것들을 두 가지 큰 범주로 나눌 것입니다. 하나는 평가와 관련이 있고, 다른 하나는 유동성과 관련이 있습니다. 그래서 신용 세컨더리 투자자로서, 우리는 자산 풀, 포트폴리오, 펀드에 있는 특정 대출을 평가할 때, 그것을 어떻게 평가하는지의 관점에서 접근합니다. 그리고 우리가 보는 평가와 우리가 그것에 부여하는 가치 사이에 어떤 델타와 차이가 있는지 확인합니다. 그래서 그 점에서, 우리가 보는 포트폴리오에서 대출을 검토하고 인수할 수 있는 능력을 갖추는 것이 매우 중요한 기능이라고 생각합니다. 그리고 때때로 우리의 평가가 우리가 보는 평가와 다를 때가 있습니다. 그래서 그것이 가격을 결정합니다. 다른 측면은 유동성입니다. 우리가 이야기한 것처럼, private 신용은 비유동성 자산 클래스이므로, 현재 시장에서, 과거, 미래에 유동성을 찾는 것은 우리가 설계된 것입니다. 이것이 신용 세컨더리 전략의 목적입니다. 그래서 저는 이러한 시기에 유동성을 제공하는 것이 GPs와 LPs 모두에게 우리가 기대하는 일이라고 생각합니다. 우리의 관점에서, 그것이 어떻게 전개될지에 따라 지연이 있지만, 그것은 더 흥미로운 기회가 우리에게 다가올 것이며, 우리가 유동성 솔루션을 제공할 수 있기를 바랍니다.[Olga] Sure. Well, we're recording this on 31st of March. Yeah. So without going into every specific headline, there's quite a lot. Sure. I would put them in two broad buckets. So one bucket is to do with valuations, and the other one is with liquidity. So when, as a credit secondaries investor, we assess a pool of assets, a portfolio, a specific loan that sits in the fund, we approach it from a perspective of how we value it. And if there is any delta and a difference between the valuations that we see and where we assign the value to it. So I think in that regard, having an ability to look through and underwrite loans in the portfolios that we see is a very important feature. And sometimes, our assessment differs from the valuations that we see. So that drives the price. So the other aspect of it is the liquidity. As we talked about, private credit is an illiquid asset class, so people searching for liquidity in the current market, in the past, in the future, is something that, what we were designed for. That's right. This is what credit secondary strategy is for. So I think providing liquidity in times like this is something that we will look forward to do for both GPs and LPs. So from our perspective, depending how it's going to play out, there is a lag, but that will lead to more interesting opportunities coming our way, hopefully where we can provide liquidity solutions. So without going into every specific headline, there's quite a lot. I would put them in two broad buckets. So one bucket is to do with valuations, and the other one is with liquidity. So when, as a credit secondaries investor, we assess a pool of assets, a portfolio, a specific loan that sits in the fund, we approach it from a perspective of how we value it. And if there is any delta and a difference between the valuations that we see and where we assign the value to it. So I think in that regard, having an ability to look through and underwrite loans in the portfolios that we see is a very important feature. And sometimes, our assessment differs from the valuations that we see. So that drives the price. So the other aspect of it is the liquidity. As we talked about, private credit is an illiquid asset class, so people searching for liquidity in the current market, in the past, in the future, is something that, what we were designed for. This is what credit secondary strategy is for. So I think providing liquidity in times like this is something that we will look forward to do for both GPs and LPs. So from our perspective, depending how it's going to play out, there is a lag, but that will lead to more interesting opportunities coming our way, hopefully where we can provide liquidity solutions.

[Rory] I think that makes a lot of sense. And from our perspective, we also very much believe that kind of going forward, GPs are going to start to be a lot more thoughtful about their approach to liquidity. Which is a perfect segue to the look toward the future. I always like to end these segments with an eye toward what's coming next. So it may still be pretty early on to judge the ultimate performance of credit continuation vehicles, but what factors do you believe will continue to kind of underpin strong outcomes in the near term? And then what should investors watch most closely over the next 12 to 24 months?

[Olga] 양쪽 모두에 대해 매우 좋은 질문입니다. 과거를 돌아보면, 거래가 잘 수행되도록 도운 요인은 무엇이었나요? 자산 선택의 선택권입니다. 그것이 없을 때는 매우, 매우 엄격한 가격 책정입니다. 그리고 그것은 자산 측면, 대차대조표의 왼쪽입니다. 스트레스받는 판매자의 위치에 있지 않은 구조와 결합됩니다. 이것은 중요한 고려 사항이라고 생각하며, 우리는 그것을 스트레스 테스트하여 우리의 프로세스를 진행합니다. 그래서 자산 측면과 구조 자체에 대한 높은 확신을 가지는 것이 매우 중요하다고 생각합니다. 그리고 그런 거래들은 제 경험상 뛰어났습니다. 앞으로는 시장이 일부 평가 과제를 어떻게 소화하는지 보는 것이 흥미로울 것입니다. 그리고 자기 규제 메커니즘이 있습니다. 시장의 일부가 NAV에서 자산을 구매해야 한다면, 사람들이 자기 규제의 요점을 놓치고 있다고 생각합니다. 왜냐하면 GPs는 그들이 실제라고 생각하는 것과 일치하도록 평가를 조정하려고 하기 때문입니다. 그래서 이것은 일종의 자기 강화, 자기 규제 과정이라고 생각합니다. 또 다른 흥미로운 점은 시장 변동성과 신용 세컨더리에서 일어나는 일 사이에 지연이 있다는 것을 언급했지만, 주목할 만한 것은 LP 주도 거래의 흐름입니다. 작년에 LP 주도 거래는 지속 차량에 비해 시장의 매우 작은 부분이었습니다. 그것이 증가할지 지켜볼 것입니다. 이것은 우리가 주시하고 있는 것입니다. 그리고 어떻게 진행될지 지켜볼 것입니다.[Olga] Very good questions on both fronts. So looking in the past, what factors helped for the deals to perform well? The optionality on asset selection. In the absence of that, a very, very disciplined pricing. And that's on the asset side, the left side of the balance sheet. Coupled with a structure where we're not in the position of a stressed seller. I think that's an important consideration as well, and we stress test it, so that's how we go through our process. So I think having the high conviction on both asset side and the structure itself matters a lot. And those deals, in my experience, outperformed. Looking forward, I think it will be interesting to see how the market metabolizes some of the valuation challenges. The other thing that may be interesting to watch, and I've mentioned that there is a lag between the market volatility and what happens on credit secondaries, but what will be interesting to watch is a flow of LP-led deals. Last year, LP-led deals were a very minimal fraction of the market compared to continuation vehicles. We'll see if that picks up. I think this is something that we're watching. And we'll see how it plays out.

[Rory] Really, really interesting dynamics happening here, and it will be very interesting for us and probably even more so for you to continue to see these dynamics evolve. Thank you so much for joining us for the conversation today-

[Olga] Thanks for having me

[Rory] Olga. It was our pleasure. And if viewers would like to learn more about Antares Private Credit Secondaries offerings, you can find more information at the links below.