Zacks Value Investor Highlights: Trinity Industries, Greenbrier, Western Digital, Seagate Technology and First Data
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL - February 24, 2017 - Zacks Value Investor is a podcast hosted weekly by Zacks Stock Strategist Tracey Ryniec. Every week, Tracey will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds and ETFs and how it impacts your life. To listen to the podcast, click here: ( https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/250402/dont-be-fooled-by-cyclical-stocks )
Don't Be Fooled By Cyclical Stocks
Welcome to Episode #31 of the Value Investor Podcast
Every week, Tracey Ryniec, the editor of Zacks Value Investor portfolio service , shares some of her top value investing tips and stock picks.
Recently, she's been having some Twitter and Stocktwits "discussions" with investors about what makes a cheap stock.
Just because a stock has dropped big, even if it's fallen 50% or more, that doesn't mean a stock is necessarily "cheap" or a "value." Certainly, that scenario is one that a value investor would want to investigate further.
Tracey has covered value traps on the podcast before but this week she turns to its devious cousin: the cyclical stock.
Companies are known as cyclicals when their earnings rise and fall with the mood of the economy.
So, for example, a luxury automaker, a motorcycle manufacturer and homebuilders are likely cyclical as their earnings rise when the economy is good and consumers feel bullish enough to buy that new car or new house and their earnings fall when there is a recession.
Cyclical stocks can appear to be cheap, especially when earnings are just starting to decline.
Trinity Industries Isn't a Value
In 2016, Trinity looked cheap, as it earned $2.25. But earnings are on the decline due to a cyclical drop in rail car orders that will likely last several years.
In 2017, the Zacks Consensus is calling for $1.30. With shares near $30, and the slide in earnings, suddenly Trinity went from having a P/E of around 13 to having one around 26. It's obviously not cheap any longer.
How do you avoid the cyclicals?
Keep an eye on earnings estimates. What direction are the estimates moving? If they were going up for years but now are on the decline for years, that's a red flag.
If you're trying to stay away from these false cheap stocks, what should you be buying right now instead?
Look for companies with rising earnings estimates and businesses that won't be as impacted by an economic slowdown.
3 Value Stocks with Rising Earnings Estimates
What else does Tracey think about the cyclicals and finding cheap stocks while the market is hitting record highs?
Tune into this week's podcast to find out.
Want more value investing insights from Tracey?
Check out her weekly Value Investor service to receive more in-depth analysis on value companies and see which stocks Tracey thinks are the best bargains now.
It holds between 20 and 25 value stocks for the long haul. Click here to learn more.
Tracey Ryniec is the Value Stock Strategist for Zacks.com. She is also the Editor of the Insider Trader and Value Investor services. You can follow her on twitter at @TraceyRyniec and she also hosts the Zacks Market Edge Podcast on iTunes.
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