As the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation unfolded, recessionary fears loomed large over the US economy. However, whispers of a "soft landing" – a scenario where the economy treads water instead of diving into recession – are gaining traction. While the future remains uncertain, this potential reprieve raises critical questions for investors: how will markets react, and could value stocks thrive in this environment?
Drawing from historical patterns, experts point towards a potentially favorable landscape for value stocks. Vanguard's mid-2023 report revealed a compelling trend: since 1979, value stocks have outperformed their growth counterparts during economic recoveries. Kevin DiCiurcio, CFA, head of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® research team, underscores this historical relationship: "On average, value has outperformed during economic recoveries, historically speaking. So, if you believe that the Federal Reserve may have engineered a soft landing—that we're going to sidestep a recession and that the economy's next move is an acceleration—the case for value is strengthened."
While past performance isn't a guaranteed predictor of future returns, the allure of historical rhyme resonates in uncertain times. If the economy begins to climb out of its current lull, advisors and investors should keep a sharp eye on value stocks.
Finsum: Learn why some experts are revisiting value investing’s historical performance advantage during periods of economic recovery.
- soft landing
- economic recovery
- value stocks
- market uncertainty