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Nasdaq Markets Outlook

Will the Seasonal Market Rally Last?

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | "The bird Turkey is called Hindi in Turkish, in India it is called Peru, in Arabic it is called Greek chicken, in Greek it is called French chicken, and in French it is called Indian chicken. The bird is indigenous to none of these places." -Anonymous 

| Falling prices is a feature of the modern economy due to productivity gains | "This is a good opportunity to remind everyone that over the very long run, agricultural prices have tended to decline in real terms.. 

For most commodities, humans tend to produce “more with less” over time and these productivity gains are especially prevalent in soft commodities. Malthus has so far been proved spectacularly wrong! " 

-Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

figure 1

* source: Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

| Y'day's Fed minutes = not very informative. Fed shits into cautious policy mode as risk becomes more two sided -RTRS

markets cheering falling

* source: CNBC

| MARKETS PRICING IN RATE CUTS AHEAD? Dec rate CUT (yes cut!) odds = 0.2% | March 2024 = 30% rate cut odds

chart 2

* source: Oxford Economics

fed is priced to cut more

* source: Deutsche Bank

| "The correlation between S&P500 P/E and real yields has been clearly inverse in the last few years. Therefore, a move lower in yields is initially seen as a knee-jerk positive for the overall equity market." -JP Morgan

figure 30

* source: JP Morgan

BUT BUT BUT... "The correlation between bond yields and PEs is not
always inverse…"

figure 31

"...but, the earnings - P/E correlation was always clear

figure 34

* source: JP Morgan

| The secular shift from actively-managed to passively-managed funds has accelerated meaningfully in 2023

exhibit 26
exhibit 27

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| Earnings - any meaningful growth? | "S&P500 earnings projections for 2023 and 2024 have not changed much as we went through this year, largely flat to down...the same is true for European Earnings." -JPMorgan

figure 1
figure 2

| Is this sustainable? | "Current earnings and profit margins are significantly above trend" -JP Morgan

current earnings and profit margins

* source: JP Morgan

| Will things turn around for Argentina? | "Inflation in Argentina has been out of control, hovering above 140% at the latest estimate, along with a crippling national debt." -Chartr

another day another dollar

*source: Chartr

| On the theme of inflation: What's Still Rising?

inflation: what's still rising

*source: Chartr

| recent flows... core funds and small caps (will it persist?)

exhibit 28
exhibit 29

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| Will 2024 elections be Trump vs Biden? | will Nikki Haley be the dark horse?

exhibit 2
exhibit 5

Anyone still trust polls?

exhibit 6

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + Dollar+ HIGHER | TYields + Oil LOWER

-Nividia 2% post earnings 

Themes: holiday shortened trading week | Earnings winding down | Nvidia reporting earnings this week = big expectations | Will the seasonal market rally last? | Continued geopolitical risks 

-By Shon Wilk

wti crude

* source: CNBC

DJ +0.4% S&P500 +0.5% Nasdaq +0.8% R2K +0.9% Cdn TSX -0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.383%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,001, WTI -5%, $74; Brent -4%, $79, Bitcoin $36,363

falling inflation

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) JOBS | "Initial jobless claims were much lower than expected in the week ended November 18, while continued claims declined for the first time since early September. We are entering the time of year when seasonal noise will make the claims data harder to interpret" -Oxford Economics

chart 2

* source: Oxford Economics

3) Food for thought... "Americans the optimists, Europeans the conservatives"

americans the only consumers

* source: Deutsche Bank

4) Can Republicans Repeal The Green Subsidies In The IRA? 

“Donald Trump has raised the prospect of repealing at least the electric vehicle (EV) credit and Nikki Haley has proposed repealing almost all of the tax credits. If there is a GOP sweep, it is highly likely at least some of the $640 billion in subsidies will be curtailed. If President Biden wins reelection, he will oppose rolling back the green subsidies, but he probably won’t be able to expand them given the likelihood the GOP will have a majority in the Senate.” -Piper Sandler

composition of the renewable energy subsidies

* source: Piper Sandler

5) THIS WEEK:

Global flash PMIs for November

"Other signals of whether economies are softening will include durable goods orders in the US, inflation in Japan, and sentiment gauges in Europe. 

From central banks, the FOMC minutes will be high on investors' agenda, as will the ECB's account of their October meeting. In corporate earnings, the spotlight will be on Nvidia on Tuesday." -Deutsche Bank

key events

* source: Barclays' Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

ESG Targets of Europe’s 20 Biggest Banks Slammed in New Report - BNN 

An analysis by ShareAction, a UK-based nonprofit, examined the green finance claims of the 20 biggest lenders spread across the European Union, the UK, Switzerland and Norway found that “targets and disclosures aren’t fit for purpose and could lead to misleading claims.” 

ShareAction also noted that banks generally aren’t including capital markets activities in their green finance goals. Barclays represents a notable exception, with its application of a 33% weighting to its pro-rata so-called facilitated emissions.

Big Oil has a place in ESG funds, says Deutsche Bank CIO - RTRS

According to Markus Müller, CIO ESG at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, sustainability funds should be able to hold traditional energy shares because excluding them is denying investors one of the best ways to bet on a shift to renewable energy.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

  • Fed shifts into cautious policy mode as risks become more two-sided-RTRS
  • JGB yields bounce from multi-month lows as BOJ trims bond purchases-RTRS
  • BOJ to end negative interest rates 2024, over 80% of economists say-RTRS
  • ECB’s Lagarde says too early to declare victory on inflation-BBG
  • ECB’s Schnabel says disinflation process projected to slow-BBG
  • ECB warns weak economy heightens stability risks from hikes-BBG
  • Australia’s inflation challenge more ‘homegrown,’ RBA says-BBG
  • Hedge fund short sellers suffer $43bn of losses in market rally-FT
  • Bank of America sees S&P 500 hitting record 5,000 next year-FT
  • Treasury’s latest inflation bond sale lures weak investor demand-BBG
  • Uranium exceeds $80 for first time in more than 15 years-BBG
  • China government advisers call for steady growth target in 2024-RTRS
  • Exclusive: China's state banks are buying yuan, quickening its rally-RTRS
  • Mansions tied to Evergrande Chairman Hui are seized by creditor-BBG
  • Chinese developer Sunac gets loan from Huarong as support ramps up-BBG
  • Japan cuts view on economy for first time in 10 months-RTRS
  • Hunt to make UK investment tax break permanent in growth push-BBG
  • UK lifts national living wage by almost 10% to £11.44 an hour-BBG
  • Singapore forecasts 1%-3% growth in 2024 after gdp beats-BBG
  • Israel approves hostage deal with Hamas-FT
  • Inside Joe Biden’s ‘excruciating’ effort to secure Israeli hostage release-FT
  • What will happen in Gaza after Israel stops its war on Hamas?-BBG
  • US to review terrorist label for Houthis after ship seized-BBG 
  • Luminar Technologies CEO’s deal to buy Forbes called off-INFO
  • Exclusive: China to name finance veteran Zhu as new forex chief -RTRS
  • ADM studied potential deal for IFF’S Nourish unit-BBG
  • Labor group nominates three candidates for Starbucks board seats-RTRS
  • Bio: Richard Teng, Binance’s New CEO-BIN
  • Apple illegally withheld benefits Union Workers, US Labor Board alleges-BBG
  • Amundi could offer UniCredit better terms to extend deal -source-RTRS
  • OreCorp shareholders position to frustrate takeover by Silvercorp-AFR
  • Nvidia says growth elsewhere will outweigh drop in China sales-FT
  • Sam Altman restored as OpenAI CEO after his tumultuous ouster-RTRS
  • Jeff Bezos ‘aggressive’ again Tuesday selling more Amazon stock-CNBC
  • Novo sees Ozempic shortages continuing next year in Europe-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) China independent refiners eye early-Jan crude arrivals amid new quota optimism-PLATTS 2) FUJAIRAH DATA: Oil product stocks jump to six-week high-PLATTS 3) Exclusive: OPEC hears bearish message on oil from top swap dealer's presentation-RTRS 4) Argentina to focus on infrastructure to ramp up oil, gas output: incoming minister-PLATTS 5) Andurand says OPEC+ may need deeper cuts as US supply surges-BBG

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Massud Ghaussy, CFA

About the author

Massud Ghaussy, CFA, is part of Nasdaq's IR Insights team and delivers daily insights that empowers readers to get a sense of the important issues impacting the day's trading.

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