Will Robust Comps Growth Drive Starbucks (SBUX) Q1 Earnings?

Starbucks Corporation SBUX is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Jan 30. The company is likely to have benefited from robust same store sales growth, unit expansion, new menu addition and strong digitalization.

Comps Growth Likely to Continue in Q1

SBUX’s performance in the fiscal first quarter is likely to have been aided by robust comps growth. An increase in average ticket and comparable transaction continues to aid the company.

Sales leverage initiatives, new store growth, and new equipment installments and enhancements are likely to have driven the company’s performance. Also, emphasis on digital and product innovation, and supply-chain modernization bodes well. The opening of China Coffee Innovation Park in September 2023 sparked its business prospects in China.

Our model predicts North America and International comparable sales growth to increase 8% and 8.3%, respectively, from the prior-year levels.


Our model suggests North America and International sales to be $7,014.3 million and $2,207 million, respectively, implying a 7.1% and 31.4% jump from the year-ago actuals. Starbucks is gaining from a rise in transactions and average ticket growth. We expect Channel Development sales to decline 0.1% from the prior-year level to $477.6 million.

Click here to know how the company’s overall fiscal first-quarter performance is expected to have been.

Overall Q1 Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at 93 cents per share, indicating 24% growth from the year-ago level. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $9.60 billion, indicating 10.1% decline from the prior-year level.

SBUX currently carries a Zacks rank #3 (Hold).

Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Starbucks Corporation price-eps-surprise | Starbucks Corporation Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG has an Earnings ESP of +1.61% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

CMG’s earnings for the quarter under review are expected to increase 17% year over year. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, the average surprise being 5.8%.

Papa John's International, Inc. PZZA has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

PZZA’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to climb 2.8% year over year. It reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 4.7%.

McDonald's Corporation MCD has an Earnings ESP of +0.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

MCD is expected to register 8.5% year-over-year growth in earnings for the quarter to be reported. It earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same in one, the average surprise being 1.7%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

5 Stocks Set to Double

Each was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2023. Previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.

Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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