Live Nation Entertainment, Inc . LYV is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 3, after the market closes.
Last quarter, the company posted a negative earnings surprise of 46.88%. The company has posted a negative earnings surprise in two of the four trailing quarters, with an average negative surprise of 14.84%.
Factors to Consider
Live Nation operates under four segments, namely Concerts, Ticketing, Artist Nation and Sponsorship & Advertising. In 2015, all the segments, especially Concerts, witnessed revenue growth. We expect the trend to continue in the to-be-reported quarter as well.
Further, the company has improved the ticket booking experience with an improved website and app - by including Apple Pay (Apple's mobile payment and digital wallet) and integration with Apple Spotlight - the search feature of Apple's OS X and iOS. We expect these initiatives to drive first-quarter revenues.
Additionally, Live Nation's ticketing business operates under the well-known brand, Ticketmaster, which is the leading ticketing sales platform, and has been posting solid revenues over the past few quarters. The company has a significant presence in this high-margin agency business where it charges a fee for selling tickets on behalf of its clients. We believe that the revenue growth momentum in the Ticketing segment will continue in the to-be reported quarter.
However, escalating costs, especially in the Concerts segment, are a concern. Despite achieving stellar revenue growth, the segment has been suffering losses for the last five years due to high operating costs associated with concert organizing.
Further, a strong dollar would continue to hurt international revenues. Also, a sluggishly recovering European economy can hurt tour revenues to some extent.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Live Nation Entertainment is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP : The company's Earnings ESP is -10.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at a loss of 33 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is narrower at a loss of 30 cents.
Zacks Rank : Live Nation Entertainment's Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about a positive surprise.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks in the consumer discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Brunswick Corporation BC , with an Earnings ESP of +1.41% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Pinnacle Entertainment Inc. PNK , with an Earnings ESP of +23.21% and a Zacks Rank #3.
PVH Corp. PVH , with an Earnings ESP of +0.7% and a Zacks Rank #3.