Will Immune Design (IMDZ) Miss on Earnings This Season? - Analyst Blog
Immune Design Corp.IMDZ is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2015 results before the market opens on May 14, 2015.
Immune Design has a disappointing track record. The company missed estimates in the last two trailing quarters with an average negative earnings surprise of 33.75%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Influencing First-Quarter 2015
Since Immune Design is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, currently focused on the development of immuno-oncology therapies, investors are expected to keep an eye on its pipeline progress.
Immune Design is conducting a phase I dose-escalation study on CMB305 for the treatment of four types of solid tumor. Based on two phase I studies on G100, the company said on its fourth-quarter call that the intra-tumoral use of the candidate offers an attractive immuno-oncology approach. We expect updates on the company's plans regarding a third phase I pilot study on G100 for patients suffering from non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
Immune Design earns its revenues from collaboration and license fees, and the sale of products associated with material transfer, collaboration and supply agreements. Its collaboration agreement with Sanofi SNY for using the GLAAS platform in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for a selected type of food allergy will allow the company to receive development and commercialization milestones of up to $168 million, apart from royalties on the sales of any product developed and approved under this partnership. Additionally, Immune Design is expected to benefit from its Oct 2014 agreement with Sanofi, which is responsible for the costs of all preclinical and clinical development of a herpes simplex virus immune therapy.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Immune Design is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP : The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00% since the Most Accurate estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 64 cents.
Zacks Rank : Immune Design's Zacks Rank #3 coupled with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% indicates that the company may not beat the earnings this quarter. We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision momentum.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Onconova Therapeutics, Inc. ONTX has an Earnings ESP of +1.59% and carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Celladon Corporation CLDN has an Earnings ESP of +8.70% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.