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Will the EU Give the GBP a Much-Needed Brexit Boost?

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session was on the lighter side once more this morning. Australian home loan figures were the only stats to consider in the early hours.

For the Aussie Dollar,

New home loans increased by 2% in February, partially reversing 2.6% slide in January. According to figures released by the ABS,

  • The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings increased by 1.8% for first-time buyers.
  • Owner-occupied dwelling new commitments tumbled by 10.7% year-on-year.
  • Refinancing increased by 4.4%, month-on-month, while down by 6.9% year-on-year.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71247 to $0.71219 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.7127

Elsewhere,

At the time of writing,  the Japanese Yen up by 0.13% to ¥111.34 against the U.S Dollar. The Kiwi Dollar was up 0.06% to $0.6745 for the session.

In the equity markets, it was mixed in the early part of the day. The Nikkei was down 0.18%, feeling pressure from a pickup in appetite for the Yen. The Hang Seng was up by 0.27%, while the ASX200 and CSI managed to recover from early losses. The pair were up by 0.07% and by 0.51% respectively.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the EUR with direction through the day.

Following better than expected trade data out of Germany on Monday and the softer wage growth out of the U.S last Friday, the EUR was on a tear on Monday.

The lack of stats today could see the markets look ahead to tomorrow’s ECB policy decision and press conference.

Draghi’s unlikely to be talking up the EUR anytime soon, which should pin back the EUR. In spite of a dovish Draghi, the EUR could find more upside should Theresa May get the necessary support from EU member states for the much talked about an extension.

Monetary policy divergence may have eased up in favor of the EUR of late, but the threat of U.S tariffs on the EU and a failure to wrap up the U.S – China trade talks are ever present.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.03% at $1.1266.

For the Pound

Another quiet day on the data front continues to leave Brexit front and center. Key through the day will be the market reaction on Theresa May’s ability to convince EU member states to agree to an extension.

We can also expect the markets to respond to the House of Lords move late on Monday.

The House of Lords allowed the passing of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 5) Bill late on Monday. The Bill legally requires the British Prime Minister to seek an extension to Article 50 in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The Bill will be back in the Commons for a final vote. It’s yet unclear on when the debate to any changes made by the House of Lords will be held.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.14% to $1.3079.

Across the Pond

It’s another quiet day ahead. February’s JOLTs job openings will be the only numbers out of the U.S in focus later today.

Following the better than expected nonfarm payroll figures, the quit rate will provide further indication of worker confidence in labor market conditions. The quit rate held steady at 2.3% in January, so would need to be in line with or higher to reflect a rise in worker confidence.

Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will provide direction for the Dollar. While trade negotiations continue to be a key driver, Brexit will also influence appetite for U.S Treasuries on the day.

On the earnings front, the first big release will be on Friday, with both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo releasing 1st quarter figures. Ahead of Friday’s numbers, the markets could get a taste of what’s to come, however, which could also influence risk appetite.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 96.995.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, leaving the Loonie in the hands of U.S crude oil inventory numbers and risk sentiment.

A sharp pullback in the Greenback on Monday provided the Loonie with much-needed support. The pullback followed the disappointing wage growth figures released on Friday and another fall in factory orders.

Adding to the upside for the Loonie was a jump in crude oil prices, as fighting in Libya breaks out. Risks of supply disruption led the WTI to a day high $64.44 before easing back to $63 Levels. With supply disruption, planned OPEC production cutbacks and reports of a jump in buying by China, there could be more gains on the way.

The Loonie was up 0.02% at C$1.3311, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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