Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH) shares have declined from over $57 in December 2015 to current levels of $32. In this analysis, we break down the key factors driving the change in Dish’s stock price.
View our interactive dashboard analysis Why Is Dish Network’s Stock Down 40% Over The Last 4 Years?
We break down the change in Dish’s stock into 4 factors
Dish ‘s Stock Price = Revenue x Margins x P/E Multiple / No. of Shares
- Total Revenue declined from $15 billion in 2015 to $13.6 billion in 2018, and we expect them to fall to about $11.5 billion in 2019.
- Net Income Margin rose from 5% to 12%, and we expect it to come in at 10% in 2019.
- Shares Outstanding increased from 465 million in 2015 to 526 million in 2018 and we expect the number to stand at similar levels in 2019.
- P/E has fallen from 35x in 2015 to 14x based on projected 2019 results.
#1. The decline in revenues is being led by lower revenues from the core pay-TV operations
1.1 While pay-TV subscribers saw a sharp decline, falling from 14 million in 2015 to 12.3 million in 2018, fee per subscriber rose modestly to $91 per month in 2018
#2. Net Income grew despite the revenue decline, on account of lower operating costs
#2.1 Costs have come under control, driven by lower subscriber acquisition costs and other expenses.
#2.3 EPS has largely tracked Net Income
Diluted EPS rose from $1.60 in 2015 to about $3 in 2018. We expect the metric to stand at $2.20 in 2019.
#3. P/E multiple for Dish has declined from 35x in 2015 to 14.5x in 2019, due to subscriber attrition and lower valuation of spectrum assets.
P/E fell from 35x in 2015 to about 14.5x based on expected 2019 earnings.
- Dish’s P/E has contracted significantly, due to pay-TV losses and a potentially lower valuation for the company’s spectrum, which it acquired over the last decade, spending ~ $20 billion.
- While Dish held this spectrum as a non-operating asset, in July 2019 the company finally announced plans to enter the wireless market, by acquiring Sprint’s prepaid wireless business, noting that it would eventually build out its own network with its spectrum (the company is required to cover 70% of the U.S. population with 5G by 2023).
- This could be a risky proposition, given Dish’s high debt load and the relatively competitive nature of the wireless industry.
40% decline in Dish’s stock from 2015 to 2019 driven by:
- Projected revenue decline of about 20%, primarily due to ~20% decline in subscribers.
- P/E multiple declining by 60%, due to subscriber losses and concerns regarding spectrum/wireless foray.
- A slight increase in share count.
This was countered by:
- Net income margin rising from 5% in 2015 to a projected 10% in 2019.
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