Why Investors Need to Take Advantage of These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Now

Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Chipotle Mexican Grill?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $11.78 a share two days away from its upcoming earnings release on April 24, 2024.

CMG has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.86%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $11.78 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $11.56. Chipotle Mexican Grill is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

CMG is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Shake Shack (SHAK).

Shake Shack, which is readying to report earnings on May 2, 2024, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.11 a share, and SHAK is 10 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shake Shack is $0.10, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +8.33%.

CMG and SHAK's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Where Will Stocks Go…

If Biden Wins? If Trump Wins?

The answers may surprise you.

Since 1950, even after negative midterm years, the market has never had a lower presidential election year. With voters energized and engaged, the market has been almost unrelentingly bullish no matter which party wins!

Now is the time to download Zacks' free Special Report with 5 stocks that offer extreme upside for both Democrats and Republicans…

1. Medical manufacturer has gained +11,000% in the last 15 years.

2. Rental company is absolutely crushing its sector.

3. Energy powerhouse plans to grow its already large dividend by 25%.

4. Aerospace and defense standout just landed a potentially $80 billion contract.

5. Giant Chipmaker is building huge plants in the U.S. 

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Zacks Investment Research

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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