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Which Brexit Poll Should You Believe?

The question for this week that should be asked is which Brexit poll can you trust? I was scanning the web when I saw two contrasting polls, one from the Daily Mail showing the Remain side opening up a 7 point lead and an online poll showing the Leave side ahead by 4 points. Our online tracking poll, meanwhile, continues to show an overwhelming expectation that Brexit will prevail (see results below).

We continue to engage our participants and ask them for their thoughts on why there is such a large difference between our poll and public polls. The following is one response I would like to address:

Your poll giving the leaves 86% recently was hard to believe. I'm particularly keen to know where they took their poll, and if the poll is sponsored.

Our poll is an independent one and is not sponsored. What differentiates our poll from others is we do not solicit responses by asking people to participate but rather give them an opportunity to express their opinions using links to our survey in our articles, such as in this one (see below). As I noted, the trend in our poll continues to overwhelmingly expect a Brexit outcome, which suggests that those participating are motivated to express their views. With turnout expected to be a key factor in the referendum, our observation so far is that those in the Leave camp are more passionate than those on the other side. This is illustrated by the following feedback from one of our respondents:

I also expect a Brexit poll. I've spoken to lots of people at work and friends and the vast majority, by 3 to 1 want out. What I also find interesting is those of us who want out will vote at all costs, however some of the IN voters said it may depend on the weather!!! If it's raining they won't bother to vote. Amazing! So they are not too interested in staying in. I will vote out if I need to swim to the voting booth!

Keep up the good work. I believe we are great Nation and can do great things but we need to be free of our chains.

From another respondent:

So called experts say the basis of support for the Remain camp, young people, is not reliable as they are not as likely to vote in the Brexit referendum as their counterparts, the older generation in the Leave camp.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Brexit Poll Results:

Brexit = vote to leave the EU

No Brexit = vote to stay in the EU

Overall expectations for a Brexit outcome remain very high.

Overall results Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9
Brexit 58% 85% 85% 86% 86% 85%
No Brexit 42% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15%

Past week: UK expectations for Brexit remain highly elevated.

UK Respondents Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9
Brexit 83% 91% 90% 84% 92% 92%
No Brexit 17% 9% 10% 16% 8% 8%

Past week: Non-UK expectations for Brexit remain high but with smaller sample

Non-UK Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9
Brexit 12% 53% 58% 70% 74% 81%
No Brexit 78% 47% 42% 30% 26% 19%

Breakdown of UK vs Non-UK Respondents

Total # Mar 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 26 Apr 2 Apr 9
UK 32% 88% 85% 90% 89% 90
Non-UK 88% 12% 15% 10% 11% 10%

While I do not expect the outcome of the June 23 referendum to be so lopsided, I continue to be astounded by the findings in our tracking poll, which have been consistent expecting a Brexit outcome in the six weeks we have been running it.

As I have been noting, we have no agenda other than to provide a platform for those on both sides of the argument to voice their expectations via our poll. We also offer the opportunity to express views in follow up emails and in this regard, passions on the Brexit side continue to run strong. There also seems to be a mistrust of public polls but I will leave that to the eventual results to decide.

As I have been noting, the fx market seems to be a better barometer of Brexit sentiment than the UK equity market. In this regard, sterling fell this past week, both vs. the dollar and vs. the EUR . This saw GBPUSD retreat sharply but close the week off its lows, having held just above 1.40 and the 7+ year low at 1.3836 set on February 29. EURGBP rose to a 22-month high at .8117 before backing off. So far the risk of a Brexit outcome has had little fallout on the EUR but bears watching as the vote nears.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Jay Meisler, founder

Global Traders Association


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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